{ "schema_version": "0.3", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "records_count": 84, "supersedes": "0.2", "research_method": "AI-assisted editorial evidence review with reference, strict and broader readings", "outcome_complete_does_not_mean_attribution_certain": true, "lifetime_exhaustive": false, "original_editions_independently_collated": false, "default_view": "reference", "source_registry": "sources.v0.3.json", "legacy_map": "legacy-reconciliation.v0.3.json", "metrics_file": "metrics.v0.3.json", "records": [ { "id": "K001", "slug": "k001-chess-champion-resolve-the-original-deadline", "title": "Computer defeats the world chess champion", "prediction_paraphrase": "A computer defeats the world chess champion.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "chess", "benchmark" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K001", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-001", "DEC-001", "EXE-001" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1990, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "UNRESOLVED_ORIGINAL_EDITION" }, "target": { "text": "1998 in the author retrospective; 2000 in earlier summaries. Reference 1998; success invariant.", "deadline_year": 1998, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 1998, "year_end": 1998, "interpretation": "1998 in the author retrospective; 2000 in earlier summaries. Reference 1998; success invariant." }, "source_verification": { "state": "ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "at_deadline_rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.", "at_review_rationale": "The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "first_full_achievement_year": 1997, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": [ -3, -1 ], "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Overview, printed p. 5", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O01", "locator": "Documents the 1997 match victory; not proof of the original date or wording of Kurzweil’s forecast.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Attribution to the broad chess forecast is strong; the exact original deadline is less secure. Do not publish a single precise drift.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-001", "relation": "HOLD_ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-001", "relation": "HOLD_ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-001", "relation": "HOLD_ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT" } ], "subcategory": "Game-playing AI", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "HIGH", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 1997, "at_deadline_rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.", "at_review_rationale": "The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O01" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 1998, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 1997, "at_deadline_rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.", "at_review_rationale": "The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O01" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 1998, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. 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Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O01" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 1998, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": 1997, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "EXACT_EVENT", "label": "1997; 1–3 years early across the cited 1998/2000 deadlines", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": [ -3, -1 ] }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ATTRIBUTION_UNRESOLVED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "IBM documents the 1997 match victory. The intake alternates 1998 and 2000. The author’s retrospective names 1998, but the relevant original-edition passage was not obtained. Outcome is confirmed; the historical attribution and exact drift remain open.", "first_full_achievement_year": 1997, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "UNREVIEWED -> CORRECT: immaterial date conflict no longer blocks the outcome." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K002", "slug": "k002-lighter-and-thinner-portable-computers", "title": "Lighter and thinner portable computers", "prediction_paraphrase": "Portable computers become markedly lighter and thinner.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "notebooks", "weight", "thickness" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K002", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-004" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Portable computers are substantially lighter and thinner than typical 1999 notebooks; not every computer must shrink.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator. Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator.", "at_review_rationale": "Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2008, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 2, printed p. 12", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O02", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O03", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O04", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-004", "relation": "CANONICALIZE" } ], "subcategory": "Miniaturization", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Portable computers are substantially lighter and thinner than typical 1999 notebooks; not every computer must shrink.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator. Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2008, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator.", "at_review_rationale": "Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O02", "O03", "O04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Portable computers are substantially lighter and thinner than typical 1999 notebooks; not every computer must shrink.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator. Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2008, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator.", "at_review_rationale": "Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O02", "O03", "O04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Portable computers are substantially lighter and thinner than typical 1999 notebooks; not every computer must shrink.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator. Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2008, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2008 MacBook Air was three pounds and at most 0.76 inches thick; earlier PowerBooks provide a concrete size/weight comparator.", "at_review_rationale": "Commercial thin laptops substantiate the direction and magnitude. A single earliest breakthrough year is unnecessary.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O02", "O03", "O04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2008, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2008", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Apple’s 2000 PowerBook weighed 5.7–6.1 lb, and its 2001 model was one inch thick. The 2008 MacBook Air weighed 3 lb and was at most 0.76 inch thick. These are contemporaneous manufacturer specifications supporting the qualitative trend before 2009.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2008, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K003", "slug": "k003-computers-embedded-in-clothing-and-jewelry", "title": "Computers embedded in clothing and jewelry", "prediction_paraphrase": "Clothing and jewelry commonly contain computers.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "embedded computing", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K003", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-005", "DEC-011" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Computing in wearable body ornaments is a common product/use category; watches count and every example need not be equally adopted.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached. By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached.", "at_review_rationale": "By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2019, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 3, printed pp. 12–13", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N01", "locator": "June 2019 US survey: 21% regularly wear one. Common does not mean majority, and US adult prevalence is not global prevalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N02", "locator": "US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N25", "locator": "ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; ECG deployment corroborated by December 2018 release O22. Not diagnosis of all diseases or autonomous treatment.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "US wearable prevalence is a regional proxy. The reference treats the examples as an illustrative class; the fuller clothing-plus-jewelry reading remains partial.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-005", "relation": "MERGE_SAME_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-011", "relation": "MERGE_SAME_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Wearables", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Computing in wearable body ornaments is a common product/use category; watches count and every example need not be equally adopted.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached. By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached.", "at_review_rationale": "By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N01", "N02", "N25" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Both everyday clothing and a broad range of jewelry commonly embed computers.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Smartwatches satisfy part of the list, but broadly computerized clothing and the full jewelry assortment are not comparably established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N01", "N02", "N25" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Computing in wearable body ornaments is a common product/use category; watches count and every example need not be equally adopted.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached. By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached.", "at_review_rationale": "By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N01", "N02", "N25" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2019, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2019; after 2009, no later than 2019", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The original scope is stronger than “smartphones exist.” The retrospective relies partly on counting carried devices. Independent adoption evidence for literal clothing/jewelry integration has not been established here.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K004", "slug": "k004-at-least-a-dozen-body-networked-computers", "title": "At least a dozen body-networked computers", "prediction_paraphrase": "Typical people use at least twelve body-networked computers.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "body-area networks", "device counts" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K004", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-006" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Typical users have at least twelve separately functional worn/carried computing devices linked in a body network.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks. Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks.", "at_review_rationale": "Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 5, printed pp. 14–15", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N02", "locator": "US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N01", "locator": "June 2019 US survey: 21% regularly wear one. Common does not mean majority, and US adult prevalence is not global prevalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "A phone’s internal chips are not counted as separate body-LAN computers; that redefinition would make the original list of personal functions misleading. No global body-LAN census is available.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-006", "relation": "RESTORE_THRESHOLD" } ], "subcategory": "Wearables", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Typical users have at least twelve separately functional worn/carried computing devices linked in a body network.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks. Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks.", "at_review_rationale": "Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N02", "N01" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Typical users have at least twelve separately functional worn/carried computing devices linked in a body network.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks. Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks.", "at_review_rationale": "Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N02", "N01" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "People use several mutually connected personal devices and sensors.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Phone/watch/earbud ecosystems realize the body-network direction, but this drops the explicit twelve-device threshold.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Drops at-least-twelve threshold" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2021, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N02", "N01" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "UNSCORABLE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "Counting chips inside a phone is not the same as counting independently networked worn devices. The legacy paraphrase removed both the numerical threshold and body-LAN condition. No stable counting convention is specified.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K005", "slug": "k005-personal-devices-largely-without-moving-parts", "title": "Personal devices largely without moving parts", "prediction_paraphrase": "Most personal computing devices have no moving parts.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "solid state", "moving parts" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K005", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-007" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "The pocket/worn personal computers in the surrounding passage generally use electronic storage rather than rotating media.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009. This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”", "at_deadline_rationale": "Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 6, printed p. 15", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N03", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O07", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "The reference does not extend a contextual claim about truly personal devices to servers. Current cumulative fulfillment does not mean every laptop or computer is fanless.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-007", "relation": "CANONICALIZE" } ], "subcategory": "Storage and device design", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "The pocket/worn personal computers in the surrounding passage generally use electronic storage rather than rotating media.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009. This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N03", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Apply the solid-state/no-moving-parts claim to portable PCs including laptops, not just the pocket/worn context.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Hard drives were common in 2009 laptops; current widespread SSDs fulfill storage substitution, but a literal no-moving-parts condition still conflicts with many cooling fans.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_POPULATION", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N03", "O07" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "The pocket/worn personal computers in the surrounding passage generally use electronic storage rather than rotating media.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009. This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N03", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "Phones and notebooks cannot be silently combined or separated to obtain a favorable majority. Apple’s 2008 Air still offered a hard disk as well as an SSD option. A sales/installed-base denominator is needed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K006", "slug": "k006-most-portable-computers-lack-keyboards", "title": "Most portable computers lack keyboards", "prediction_paraphrase": "Most portable computers have no keyboards.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "keyboards", "portable computing" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K006", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-008" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Across newly sold portable computing devices, including smartphones and tablets, most lack physical keyboards.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then. By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then.", "at_review_rationale": "By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2015, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 7, printed p. 16", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O07", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N02", "locator": "US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N53", "locator": "968 million smartphones; Android plus iOS dominated. Inferring physical-keyboard-free portable computing requires a population definition, not simply counting all feature phones.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Physical keyboards, not on-screen keyboards. Reference is new-device unit mix, not lifetime installed computers; 2015 is a conservative documented-era estimate with medium timing confidence, not a counted exact crossover.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-008", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Input hardware", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Across newly sold portable computing devices, including smartphones and tablets, most lack physical keyboards.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then. By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then.", "at_review_rationale": "By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O07", "N02", "N53" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Conventional notebook/laptop computers mostly lose their physical keyboards.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "That narrower population does not fulfill the prediction. It is a population sensitivity, not the only legitimate meaning of portable computer.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_POPULATION", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O07", "N02", "N53" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Across newly sold portable computing devices, including smartphones and tablets, most lack physical keyboards.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then. By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then.", "at_review_rationale": "By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O07", "N02", "N53" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2015, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "EDITORIAL_ERA_BOUND", "label": "By the mid-2010s on the stated market reading; exact threshold year not established", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "bound_is_editorial": true }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The input changed keyboard absence into touch/voice use. Those are not equivalent. The required 2009 device-population comparison is still missing.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K007", "slug": "k007-home-and-office-servers-for-most-users", "title": "Home and office servers for most users", "prediction_paraphrase": "Most users maintain home and office servers.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Networks & communications", "tags": [ "home servers", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K007", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-009" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Most users keep large personal digital collections on servers physically at home or in their offices.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Home/network storage and office servers existed, but home servers were not the typical personal-computing model. Large digital collections and server-backed access are ordinary, but cloud hosting displaced much of the predicted home-server architecture.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Home/network storage and office servers existed, but home servers were not the typical personal-computing model.", "at_review_rationale": "Large digital collections and server-backed access are ordinary, but cloud hosting displaced much of the predicted home-server architecture.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 8, printed p. 17", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N02", "locator": "US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O10", "locator": "Announcement; retail availability October 14. This is NOT the first-ever voice assistant, nor the first standalone Siri release.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O06", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-009", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Local storage infrastructure", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Most users keep large personal digital collections on servers physically at home or in their offices.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Home/network storage and office servers existed, but home servers were not the typical personal-computing model. Large digital collections and server-backed access are ordinary, but cloud hosting displaced much of the predicted home-server architecture.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Home/network storage and office servers existed, but home servers were not the typical personal-computing model.", "at_review_rationale": "Large digital collections and server-backed access are ordinary, but cloud hosting displaced much of the predicted home-server architecture.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N02", "O10", "O06" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Most users keep large personal digital collections on servers physically at home or in their offices.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Home/network storage and office servers existed, but home servers were not the typical personal-computing model. Large digital collections and server-backed access are ordinary, but cloud hosting displaced much of the predicted home-server architecture.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Home/network storage and office servers existed, but home servers were not the typical personal-computing model.", "at_review_rationale": "Large digital collections and server-backed access are ordinary, but cloud hosting displaced much of the predicted home-server architecture.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N02", "O10", "O06" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Personal digital collections live on servers accessible across devices, regardless of location.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Cloud-backed libraries and synchronization realize the function. This deliberately relaxes the home/office location requirement.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Server location" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2011, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N02", "O10", "O06" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The server/cloud distinction was blurred in the intake. The source is located, but no appropriate adoption denominator has been established. Missing evidence is not a WRONG verdict.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K008", "slug": "k008-wireless-delivery-of-digital-media-and-software", "title": "Wireless delivery of digital media and software", "prediction_paraphrase": "Digital media and software arrive as wireless files.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "tags": [ "ebooks", "music", "film", "software" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K008", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-010" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Books, music, video and software can routinely be delivered as downloadable wireless data without a physical carrier.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline. Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 9, printed p. 18", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O05", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O06", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O07", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-010", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-005", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Digital distribution", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Books, music, video and software can routinely be delivered as downloadable wireless data without a physical carrier.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline. Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O05", "O06", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Books, music, video and software can routinely be delivered as downloadable wireless data without a physical carrier.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline. Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O05", "O06", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Books, music, video and software can routinely be delivered as downloadable wireless data without a physical carrier.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline. Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle, iTunes and the App Store supplied the listed media/software functions before the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued paper-book or disc sales do not refute routine file distribution; the claim does not require every purchase to be digital.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O05", "O06", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Kindle offered wireless books and periodicals in 2007. Apple documented large-scale music and film downloads in 2008 and wireless application delivery over cellular/Wi-Fi that July. This verifies a digital-distribution capability, not a majority share of all books or media.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2008, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K009", "slug": "k009-wireless-links-replace-some-peripheral-cables", "title": "Wireless links replace some peripheral cables", "prediction_paraphrase": "Short-range wireless links reduce peripheral cabling.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Networks & communications", "tags": [ "Bluetooth", "cables" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K009", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-011" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Wireless links substantially displace short peripheral cables in ordinary use; “disappearing” describes a trend, not zero cables.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Commercial Bluetooth keyboards/mice and ordinary Wi-Fi demonstrate the predicted transition by 2009. The broad direction holds. Charging leads and remaining monitor cables are not evidence that the trend failed.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Commercial Bluetooth keyboards/mice and ordinary Wi-Fi demonstrate the predicted transition by 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "The broad direction holds. Charging leads and remaining monitor cables are not evidence that the trend failed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 12, printed p. 20", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O08", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O09", "locator": "US adult survey. Ever-used wireless access is not a majority-of-traffic measure and is not global coverage.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-011", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Peripheral connectivity", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Wireless links substantially displace short peripheral cables in ordinary use; “disappearing” describes a trend, not zero cables.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Commercial Bluetooth keyboards/mice and ordinary Wi-Fi demonstrate the predicted transition by 2009. The broad direction holds. Charging leads and remaining monitor cables are not evidence that the trend failed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Commercial Bluetooth keyboards/mice and ordinary Wi-Fi demonstrate the predicted transition by 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "The broad direction holds. Charging leads and remaining monitor cables are not evidence that the trend failed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O08", "O09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The full listed peripheral set, including most displays, ordinarily communicates wirelessly.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wireless input and networking are established, but wired monitors and other peripherals preserve an important part of the listed ecology.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O08", "O09" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Wireless links substantially displace short peripheral cables in ordinary use; “disappearing” describes a trend, not zero cables.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Commercial Bluetooth keyboards/mice and ordinary Wi-Fi demonstrate the predicted transition by 2009. The broad direction holds. Charging leads and remaining monitor cables are not evidence that the trend failed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Commercial Bluetooth keyboards/mice and ordinary Wi-Fi demonstrate the predicted transition by 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "The broad direction holds. Charging leads and remaining monitor cables are not evidence that the trend failed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O08", "O09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "PARTIAL", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Bluetooth keyboards and mice were shipping years before 2009. This supports meaningful substitution, but does not establish the whole range of links, including displays. The intake’s “cables will vanish” wording was too absolute.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K010", "slug": "k010-routine-reliable-high-bandwidth-wireless-access", "title": "Routine, reliable, high-bandwidth wireless access", "prediction_paraphrase": "Computers routinely reach an ever-available high-bandwidth network.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Networks & communications", "tags": [ "Wi-Fi", "mobile access", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K010", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-012", "DEC-013" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Wireless Internet is a routine built-in capability with useful broadband availability in connected markets.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Pew found 56% of US adults had used wireless Internet by 2009; shipping devices included Wi-Fi/cellular connectivity. Routine access is established. Universal coverage, perfect uptime and unlimited bandwidth were not imposed as extra requirements.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Pew found 56% of US adults had used wireless Internet by 2009; shipping devices included Wi-Fi/cellular connectivity.", "at_review_rationale": "Routine access is established. Universal coverage, perfect uptime and unlimited bandwidth were not imposed as extra requirements.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 13, printed p. 21", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O09", "locator": "US adult survey. Ever-used wireless access is not a majority-of-traffic measure and is not global coverage.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O07", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "US survey is evidence of routine connected-market use, not worldwide universal access. “High bandwidth” is judged relative to the forecast era.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-012", "relation": "CORRECT_AND_MERGE_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-013", "relation": "CORRECT_AND_MERGE_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-004", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-025", "relation": "QUARANTINE_DATE_DISTORTION" } ], "subcategory": "Wireless Internet", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Wireless Internet is a routine built-in capability with useful broadband availability in connected markets.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Pew found 56% of US adults had used wireless Internet by 2009; shipping devices included Wi-Fi/cellular connectivity. Routine access is established. Universal coverage, perfect uptime and unlimited bandwidth were not imposed as extra requirements.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Pew found 56% of US adults had used wireless Internet by 2009; shipping devices included Wi-Fi/cellular connectivity.", "at_review_rationale": "Routine access is established. Universal coverage, perfect uptime and unlimited bandwidth were not imposed as extra requirements.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O09", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The network is instantly available with high bandwidth across essentially all ordinary locations.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Coverage and reliability qualifications remain. This gives additional weight to the “ever-present” language without treating an isolated outage as failure.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O09", "O07" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Wireless Internet is a routine built-in capability with useful broadband availability in connected markets.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Pew found 56% of US adults had used wireless Internet by 2009; shipping devices included Wi-Fi/cellular connectivity. Routine access is established. Universal coverage, perfect uptime and unlimited bandwidth were not imposed as extra requirements.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Pew found 56% of US adults had used wireless Internet by 2009; shipping devices included Wi-Fi/cellular connectivity.", "at_review_rationale": "Routine access is established. Universal coverage, perfect uptime and unlimited bandwidth were not imposed as extra requirements.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O09", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "PARTIAL", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Built-in Wi-Fi was real, and Pew found 56% of US adults had ever used wireless Internet in 2009. Only 19% had used handheld Internet the previous day. This supports substantial use, not universal reliable high-bandwidth access.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K011", "slug": "k011-dictation-creates-the-majority-of-text", "title": "Dictation creates the majority of text", "prediction_paraphrase": "Speech dictation produces most text.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "dictation", "text input", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K011", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-013" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "More than half of generated text comes from continuous-speech dictation.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009. Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 14, printed p. 22", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O10", "locator": "Announcement; retail availability October 14. This is NOT the first-ever voice assistant, nor the first standalone Siri release.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "AI-generated text is not speech-dictated text. Product availability alone is not evidence for the quantitative original. Current miss has medium confidence because global composition shares are not directly measured.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-013", "relation": "RESTORE_THRESHOLD" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-010", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Speech recognition", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "More than half of generated text comes from continuous-speech dictation.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009. Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "O10", "N46" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "More than half of generated text comes from continuous-speech dictation.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009. Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "O10", "N46" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Accurate everyday dictation and speech input become ordinary computer features.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Speech features and assistants fulfill the capability reading, but capability is not majority use.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Majority-of-text threshold" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "O10", "N46" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "WRONG_MISSED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Kurzweil’s own retrospective expressly concedes the majority threshold was not reached. That is direct evidence of the historical deadline miss, though not an independent global usage survey. Subsequent speech-recognition progress cannot retroactively make 2009 an on-time hit.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K012", "slug": "k012-ubiquitous-language-interfaces-and-animated-assistants", "title": "Ubiquitous language interfaces and animated assistants", "prediction_paraphrase": "Routine-task language interfaces become ubiquitous, often with avatars.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "voice assistants", "avatars", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K012", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-014" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Task-oriented natural-language interfaces are broadly routine, including the forecast’s frequent animated-personality presentation.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Language interfaces existed, but the retrospective concedes that they were not ubiquitous at the deadline. Siri and later assistants fulfill routine natural-language interaction. The recurring avatar/personality presentation is less fully realized, so the full compound remains partial.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Language interfaces existed, but the retrospective concedes that they were not ubiquitous at the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Siri and later assistants fulfill routine natural-language interaction. The recurring avatar/personality presentation is less fully realized, so the full compound remains partial.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 15, printed p. 23", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O10", "locator": "Announcement; retail availability October 14. This is NOT the first-ever voice assistant, nor the first standalone Siri release.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-014", "relation": "RESTORE_QUALIFIERS" }, { "legacy_id": "AUD-027", "relation": "QUARANTINE_COMPOUND_UNLOCATED" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-007", "relation": "QUARANTINE_CONFLICTING_VERSIONS" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-003", "relation": "QUARANTINE_CONFLICTING_VERSIONS" } ], "subcategory": "Language interfaces", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Task-oriented natural-language interfaces are broadly routine, including the forecast’s frequent animated-personality presentation.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Language interfaces existed, but the retrospective concedes that they were not ubiquitous at the deadline. Siri and later assistants fulfill routine natural-language interaction. The recurring avatar/personality presentation is less fully realized, so the full compound remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Language interfaces existed, but the retrospective concedes that they were not ubiquitous at the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Siri and later assistants fulfill routine natural-language interaction. The recurring avatar/personality presentation is less fully realized, so the full compound remains partial.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "O10", "N46" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Task-oriented natural-language interfaces are broadly routine, including the forecast’s frequent animated-personality presentation.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Language interfaces existed, but the retrospective concedes that they were not ubiquitous at the deadline. Siri and later assistants fulfill routine natural-language interaction. The recurring avatar/personality presentation is less fully realized, so the full compound remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Language interfaces existed, but the retrospective concedes that they were not ubiquitous at the deadline.", "at_review_rationale": "Siri and later assistants fulfill routine natural-language interaction. The recurring avatar/personality presentation is less fully realized, so the full compound remains partial.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "O10", "N46" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Routine spoken-language personal assistants, without requiring visible avatars.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Commercial smartphone assistants provide the functional result. This omits the frequent avatar requirement.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Frequent visual avatars" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "O10", "N46" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "PARTIAL", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The author’s retrospective acknowledges non-ubiquity while describing narrower implementations. Apple’s 2011 Siri launch is later evidence of a capable assistant, not proof that the full 2009 adoption claim was met.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K013", "slug": "k013-paper-like-displays-and-routine-electronic-reading", "title": "Paper-like displays and routine electronic reading", "prediction_paraphrase": "Paper-like small displays support routine electronic reading.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "e-ink", "display quality" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K013", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-015" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Small book-sized displays provide high contrast, readable resolution, broad viewing angles and no distracting flicker; digital reading is routine.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions. The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions.", "at_review_rationale": "The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2007, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 16, printed p. 24", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O05", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-015", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-012", "relation": "QUARANTINE_SCOPE_DISTORTION" } ], "subcategory": "Electronic reading", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Small book-sized displays provide high contrast, readable resolution, broad viewing angles and no distracting flicker; digital reading is routine.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions. The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2007, "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions.", "at_review_rationale": "The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O05" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Small book-sized displays provide high contrast, readable resolution, broad viewing angles and no distracting flicker; digital reading is routine.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions. The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2007, "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions.", "at_review_rationale": "The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O05" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Small book-sized displays provide high contrast, readable resolution, broad viewing angles and no distracting flicker; digital reading is routine.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions. The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2007, "at_deadline_rationale": "Kindle’s 2007 electronic-paper display and wireless book delivery materially meet the listed visual and reading functions.", "at_review_rationale": "The forecast did not require all books to abandon print or the screen to share every physical property of paper.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O05" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2007, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2007", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "PARTIAL", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2007 Kindle provided a paper-like electronic display and wireless books, newspapers and magazines. That establishes a substantial realization, but this review does not equate its 167-ppi display with every quality of paper or establish the full adoption scope.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K014", "slug": "k014-see-through-glasses-with-direct-retinal-projection", "title": "See-through glasses with direct retinal projection", "prediction_paraphrase": "See-through glasses project imagery directly onto retinas.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "laser projection", "AR" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K014", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-015" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Practical see-through head-worn displays project imagery onto the retina and are used, without a mass-adoption requirement.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Microvision’s Nomad retinal display was deployed in a dealership in 2004, establishing practical use before 2009. This is a capability/use success, even though the product was specialized rather than popular fashion eyewear.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Microvision’s Nomad retinal display was deployed in a dealership in 2004, establishing practical use before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "This is a capability/use success, even though the product was specialized rather than popular fashion eyewear.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2004, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 17, printed p. 25", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N04", "locator": "Microvision-issued release hosted by The Auto Channel: actual industrial deployment. Head-worn see-through retinal display; not ordinary prescription-glasses styling or mass consumer adoption.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-015", "relation": "RESTORE_MECHANISM" } ], "subcategory": "Retinal displays", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Practical see-through head-worn displays project imagery onto the retina and are used, without a mass-adoption requirement.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Microvision’s Nomad retinal display was deployed in a dealership in 2004, establishing practical use before 2009. This is a capability/use success, even though the product was specialized rather than popular fashion eyewear.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "Microvision’s Nomad retinal display was deployed in a dealership in 2004, establishing practical use before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "This is a capability/use success, even though the product was specialized rather than popular fashion eyewear.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The retinal display is built into ordinary eyeglass-form eyewear rather than a headband/industrial head-mounted unit.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The located deployment is materially similar optical technology but not the exact eyeglass form. The strict mechanical-form reading remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Practical see-through head-worn displays project imagery onto the retina and are used, without a mass-adoption requirement.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Microvision’s Nomad retinal display was deployed in a dealership in 2004, establishing practical use before 2009. This is a capability/use success, even though the product was specialized rather than popular fashion eyewear.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "Microvision’s Nomad retinal display was deployed in a dealership in 2004, establishing practical use before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "This is a capability/use success, even though the product was specialized rather than popular fashion eyewear.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2004, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2004", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The scope is located. Early retinal-display leads must be checked against manufacturer documentation. Neither “Google Glass appeared in 2013” nor generic VR headset availability establishes a first date or a missed 2009 deadline.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K015", "slug": "k015-glasses-and-contact-lens-displays-in-the-2010s", "title": "Glasses and contact-lens displays in the 2010s", "prediction_paraphrase": "Eyeglass and contact-lens displays deliver retinal imagery.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "contact lenses", "AR" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K015", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-016" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2010 in the author retrospective’s Singularity Is Near forecast grouping; wider prose says early 2010s.", "deadline_year": 2010, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2010, "year_end": 2010, "interpretation": "2010 in the author retrospective’s Singularity Is Near forecast grouping; wider prose says early 2010s." }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Both glasses and contact-lens display forms deliver the predicted retinal imagery.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard. Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard.", "at_review_rationale": "Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Singularity Is Near predictions for 2010, prediction 4, printed p. 131", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N04", "locator": "Microvision-issued release hosted by The Auto Channel: actual industrial deployment. Head-worn see-through retinal display; not ordinary prescription-glasses styling or mass consumer adoption.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N05", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-016", "relation": "HOLD_DATE_AND_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Retinal displays", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Both glasses and contact-lens display forms deliver the predicted retinal imagery.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard. Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard.", "at_review_rationale": "Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04", "N05" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Both glasses and contact-lens display forms deliver the predicted retinal imagery.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard. Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard.", "at_review_rationale": "Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04", "N05" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Head-worn retinal/near-eye displays; contact lenses are treated as an illustrative alternative.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Practical head-worn displays existed by 2004; the technology direction was right.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Contact-lens implementation" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04", "N05" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The intake mixed 2010 and 2015. The retrospective treats “beginning of the next decade” flexibly. Neither a new exact 2015 deadline nor an automatic 2010 failure should be imported.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K016", "slug": "k016-tiny-devices-project-auditory-environments", "title": "Tiny devices project auditory environments", "prediction_paraphrase": "Tiny devices project spatial auditory environments.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "auditory projection" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K016", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-017" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2010 in the retrospective’s grouped early-2010s forecasts.", "deadline_year": 2010, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2010, "year_end": 2010, "interpretation": "2010 in the retrospective’s grouped early-2010s forecasts." }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Small personal audio devices create a convincing spatial auditory environment.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete. Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete.", "at_review_rationale": "Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2021, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Singularity Is Near predictions for 2010, prediction 5, printed pp. 131–132", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N57", "locator": "Retail availability October 26, 2021; small earbuds with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio. Establishes a documented-by year, not the first such device.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N06", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Functional audio success is not a claim of ultrasound projection. 2021 is a documented-by date; no exact first commercial year is asserted.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-017", "relation": "REJECT_BAD_OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "subcategory": "Spatial audio", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Small personal audio devices create a convincing spatial auditory environment.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete. Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2021, "at_deadline_rationale": "Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete.", "at_review_rationale": "Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N57", "N06" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Tiny ultrasound/interference-based emitters physically project localized audible sound as the explanatory mechanism describes.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Spatial earbuds use conventional transducers and signal processing. They do not complete the specified physical projection mechanism.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N57", "N06" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Small personal audio devices create a convincing spatial auditory environment.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete. Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2021, "at_deadline_rationale": "Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete.", "at_review_rationale": "Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N57", "N06" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2021, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2021; after 2010, no later than 2021", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The earlier LRAD/bone-conduction examples were not evidence of the complete claimed device. Attribution is located but performance, form factor and deadline still need resolution.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K017", "slug": "k017-anytime-immersive-audiovisual-virtual-reality", "title": "Anytime immersive audiovisual virtual reality", "prediction_paraphrase": "High-resolution audiovisual virtual reality is available anytime.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "immersion" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K017", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-018" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2010 in the retrospective’s early-2010s grouping.", "deadline_year": 2010, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2010, "year_end": 2010, "interpretation": "2010 in the retrospective’s early-2010s grouping." }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Consumers can use immersive high-resolution visual-plus-audio VR on demand, without requiring a specialist installation.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Earlier VR systems existed, but ordinary portable on-demand immersive access was limited in 2010. The standalone Quest shipped in 2019 with tracked immersive visual/audio use. “Immersive” is not silently strengthened to indistinguishable reality or all senses.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Earlier VR systems existed, but ordinary portable on-demand immersive access was limited in 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The standalone Quest shipped in 2019 with tracked immersive visual/audio use. “Immersive” is not silently strengthened to indistinguishable reality or all senses.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2019, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Singularity Is Near predictions for 2010, prediction 6, printed p. 132", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N05", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Spatial resolution is evaluated against usable consumer VR, not human retinal acuity, which this particular forecast does not specify.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-018", "relation": "HOLD_CRITERION" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-028", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-014", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Audiovisual VR", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Consumers can use immersive high-resolution visual-plus-audio VR on demand, without requiring a specialist installation.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Earlier VR systems existed, but ordinary portable on-demand immersive access was limited in 2010. The standalone Quest shipped in 2019 with tracked immersive visual/audio use. “Immersive” is not silently strengthened to indistinguishable reality or all senses.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Earlier VR systems existed, but ordinary portable on-demand immersive access was limited in 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The standalone Quest shipped in 2019 with tracked immersive visual/audio use. “Immersive” is not silently strengthened to indistinguishable reality or all senses.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N05" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The full experience is delivered through the forecast’s tiny glasses/contact display system at arbitrary times.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Standalone headsets fulfill the audiovisual experience but not the precise unobtrusive optical package.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N05" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Consumers can use immersive high-resolution visual-plus-audio VR on demand, without requiring a specialist installation.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Earlier VR systems existed, but ordinary portable on-demand immersive access was limited in 2010. The standalone Quest shipped in 2019 with tracked immersive visual/audio use. “Immersive” is not silently strengthened to indistinguishable reality or all senses.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Earlier VR systems existed, but ordinary portable on-demand immersive access was limited in 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The standalone Quest shipped in 2019 with tracked immersive visual/audio use. “Immersive” is not silently strengthened to indistinguishable reality or all senses.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N05" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2019, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2019; after 2010, no later than 2019", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "An Oculus/HTC launch alone cannot settle every qualifier or an ambiguous deadline. Conversely, this audiovisual claim is not identical to the separate total-touch forecast.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K018", "slug": "k018-augmented-reality-overlays", "title": "Augmented-reality overlays", "prediction_paraphrase": "Digital displays overlay guidance on the real world.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "visual overlays" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K018", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-019" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2010 in the author retrospective’s early-2010s grouping.", "deadline_year": 2010, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2010, "year_end": 2010, "interpretation": "2010 in the author retrospective’s early-2010s grouping." }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Digital instructions or information overlay the user’s view of the physical world.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010. The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2004, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Singularity Is Near predictions for 2010, prediction 7, printed p. 132", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N04", "locator": "Microvision-issued release hosted by The Auto Channel: actual industrial deployment. Head-worn see-through retinal display; not ordinary prescription-glasses styling or mass consumer adoption.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-019", "relation": "HOLD_FIRST_DATE" } ], "subcategory": "Augmented reality", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Digital instructions or information overlay the user’s view of the physical world.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010. The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Digital instructions or information overlay the user’s view of the physical world.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010. The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Digital instructions or information overlay the user’s view of the physical world.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010. The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "Nomad’s deployed see-through repair guidance already provided the functional overlay before 2010.", "at_review_rationale": "The availability claim is met; we do not require everyone to wear AR glasses.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2010, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2004, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2004", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The original scope does not justify treating Pokémon Go in 2016 as the first realization. Earlier AR systems require primary-source checking before assigning a date.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K019", "slug": "k019-people-largely-removed-from-the-battlefield", "title": "People largely removed from the battlefield", "prediction_paraphrase": "Humans are generally far from the battle scene.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Security & warfare", "tags": [ "human combatants", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K019", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-020" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Warfare generally places human participants far from the physical fighting, not merely some pilots.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Large troop deployments and ground combat in 2009 contradict the general-removal claim. Ongoing front-line fighting and 2025 casualties in Ukraine contradict general removal today. Drones reduce some exposure without removing humans from war.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Large troop deployments and ground combat in 2009 contradict the general-removal claim.", "at_review_rationale": "Ongoing front-line fighting and 2025 casualties in Ukraine contradict general removal today. Drones reduce some exposure without removing humans from war.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Warfare, prediction 2, printed p. 103", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O13", "locator": "Describes active human fighting and plans for 30,000 additional US troops in Afghanistan in early 2010. Do not date those additional deployments to 2009.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N08", "locator": "2025 civilian casualties and ongoing front-line fighting; not a global measure of military drone share.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-020", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-006", "relation": "QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED" } ], "subcategory": "Remote warfare", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Warfare generally places human participants far from the physical fighting, not merely some pilots.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Large troop deployments and ground combat in 2009 contradict the general-removal claim. Ongoing front-line fighting and 2025 casualties in Ukraine contradict general removal today. Drones reduce some exposure without removing humans from war.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Large troop deployments and ground combat in 2009 contradict the general-removal claim.", "at_review_rationale": "Ongoing front-line fighting and 2025 casualties in Ukraine contradict general removal today. Drones reduce some exposure without removing humans from war.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O13", "N08" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Warfare generally places human participants far from the physical fighting, not merely some pilots.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Large troop deployments and ground combat in 2009 contradict the general-removal claim. Ongoing front-line fighting and 2025 casualties in Ukraine contradict general removal today. Drones reduce some exposure without removing humans from war.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Large troop deployments and ground combat in 2009 contradict the general-removal claim.", "at_review_rationale": "Ongoing front-line fighting and 2025 casualties in Ukraine contradict general removal today. Drones reduce some exposure without removing humans from war.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O13", "N08" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Remote systems allow a significant subset of combat missions to be conducted away from immediate danger.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Remote aviation and strike operations realize the narrower direction, not general human absence.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "General scope of human removal" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O13", "N08" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "WRONG_MISSED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The December 2009 US Afghanistan address describes ongoing human fighting and plans for a further 30,000 troops. That contemporaneous record is incompatible with using remote-weapon availability as proof that humans were generally removed from battle.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K020", "slug": "k020-unmanned-aircraft-dominate-warfare", "title": "Unmanned aircraft dominate warfare", "prediction_paraphrase": "Unmanned intelligent aircraft dominate warfare.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Security & warfare", "tags": [ "dominance", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K020", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-021" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Unmanned intelligent aircraft are the dominant mode of warfare rather than an important additional weapon.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Drones were important in 2009, but conventional ground and air warfare were not displaced. They are now central in particular theaters, especially Ukraine. The worldwide, cross-domain dominance claim remains only partly fulfilled.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Drones were important in 2009, but conventional ground and air warfare were not displaced.", "at_review_rationale": "They are now central in particular theaters, especially Ukraine. The worldwide, cross-domain dominance claim remains only partly fulfilled.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Warfare, prediction 3, printed p. 103", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O13", "locator": "Describes active human fighting and plans for 30,000 additional US troops in Afghanistan in early 2010. Do not date those additional deployments to 2009.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N08", "locator": "2025 civilian casualties and ongoing front-line fighting; not a global measure of military drone share.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Civilian casualty shares are not used as a precise military weapons-share metric. Current assessment is qualitative across conflict types.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-021", "relation": "RESTORE_THRESHOLD" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-006", "relation": "QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED" } ], "subcategory": "Military drones", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Unmanned intelligent aircraft are the dominant mode of warfare rather than an important additional weapon.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Drones were important in 2009, but conventional ground and air warfare were not displaced. They are now central in particular theaters, especially Ukraine. The worldwide, cross-domain dominance claim remains only partly fulfilled.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Drones were important in 2009, but conventional ground and air warfare were not displaced.", "at_review_rationale": "They are now central in particular theaters, especially Ukraine. The worldwide, cross-domain dominance claim remains only partly fulfilled.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O13", "N08" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Unmanned intelligent aircraft are the dominant mode of warfare rather than an important additional weapon.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Drones were important in 2009, but conventional ground and air warfare were not displaced. They are now central in particular theaters, especially Ukraine. The worldwide, cross-domain dominance claim remains only partly fulfilled.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Drones were important in 2009, but conventional ground and air warfare were not displaced.", "at_review_rationale": "They are now central in particular theaters, especially Ukraine. The worldwide, cross-domain dominance claim remains only partly fulfilled.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O13", "N08" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Drones become a major or leading operational weapon in important conflicts.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "This is well established in modern combat, but it relaxes worldwide warfare dominance.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Dominance across warfare rather than selected theaters" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O13", "N08" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "UNSCORABLE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "Drones existed, but existence is not dominance. No denominator or consistent measure is specified. The earlier favorable assessment selected examples without establishing the general claim.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K021", "slug": "k021-solar-meets-worldwide-energy-demand", "title": "Solar meets worldwide energy demand", "prediction_paraphrase": "Solar supplies all global energy.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Energy & environment", "tags": [ "energy supply" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K021", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-022" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2008, "year_basis": "SOURCE_PUBLICATION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "REPORTED_EVENT_YEAR" }, "target": { "text": "2028", "deadline_year": 2028, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2028, "year_end": 2028, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "REPORTED_ATTRIBUTION_ORIGINAL_TRANSCRIPT_NOT_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": false }, "success_criteria": "Solar energy actually supplies global energy demand, not merely enough theoretical sunshine or nameplate power.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future. IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future.", "at_review_rationale": "IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P07", "locator": "Archived report of February 2008 remarks", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N59", "locator": "2025 solar PV generation nearly 2,700 TWh, over 8% of electricity. Growth contribution does not mean share of all energy.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Keep energy versus electricity, delivered output versus capacity, and growth contribution versus total share separate.", "open_questions": [], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-022", "relation": "CANONICALIZE_REPORTED_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "subcategory": "Solar deployment", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Solar energy actually supplies global energy demand, not merely enough theoretical sunshine or nameplate power.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future. IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future.", "at_review_rationale": "IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N59" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2028, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Solar energy actually supplies global energy demand, not merely enough theoretical sunshine or nameplate power.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future. IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future.", "at_review_rationale": "IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N59" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2028, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Solar energy actually supplies global energy demand, not merely enough theoretical sunshine or nameplate power.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future. IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2028 deadline remains in the future.", "at_review_rationale": "IEA reports solar supplied over 8% of global electricity in 2025—substantial growth, but electricity is only part of energy and far from all energy.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N59" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2028, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The deadline is still ahead. Falling solar costs or more installed capacity are progress indicators, not full fulfillment.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K022", "slug": "k022-the-singularity-and-billionfold-intelligence-expansion", "title": "The Singularity and billionfold intelligence expansion", "prediction_paraphrase": "Nonbiological intelligence vastly exceeds humanity’s combined intelligence.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "intelligence measurement" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K022", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-023", "EXE-028" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "DATED_DIALOGUE_IN_LATER_REPOST", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2045", "deadline_year": 2045, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2045, "year_end": 2045, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Nonbiological intelligence and human-machine integration reach the extraordinary scale asserted for the 2045 singularity.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due. AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due.", "at_review_rationale": "AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P04", "locator": "Question 3", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O21", "locator": "Five-minute experimental protocol. GPT-4.5 with a humanlike persona was judged human in 73% of the reported comparisons. Not the two-hour Long Bets protocol.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "P04", "locator": "Page identifies the dialogue as 2005. Store dialogue year 2005 separately from archive publication date 2011. Not a checked scan of the 2005 book.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "The label is forward-looking and partly conceptual. Current partial progress does not settle the future aggregate threshold.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-023", "relation": "CORRECT_AND_LINK_VERSION" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-028", "relation": "CORRECT_AND_LINK_VERSION" } ], "subcategory": "Singularity", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Nonbiological intelligence and human-machine integration reach the extraordinary scale asserted for the 2045 singularity.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due. AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due.", "at_review_rationale": "AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O21", "P04" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2045, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Nonbiological intelligence and human-machine integration reach the extraordinary scale asserted for the 2045 singularity.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due. AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due.", "at_review_rationale": "AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O21", "P04" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2045, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Nonbiological intelligence and human-machine integration reach the extraordinary scale asserted for the 2045 singularity.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due. AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2045 forecast is not yet due.", "at_review_rationale": "AI capabilities are substantial, but there is no established measurement showing fulfillment of the entire singularity claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O21", "P04" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2045, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The dated proposition is attributable, but there is no agreed operational intelligence unit. The future label does not assert that the prediction is on track.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K023", "slug": "k023-the-specific-kurzweil-kapor-turing-test-wager", "title": "The specific Kurzweil–Kapor Turing-test wager", "prediction_paraphrase": "A machine satisfies the agreed Long Bets Turing protocol.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "contract", "benchmark" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "F-TURING", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "ADDED_PRIMARY_SOURCE", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2002, "year_basis": "SOURCE_PUBLICATION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": false }, "success_criteria": "A machine passes the specific two-hour, multi-judge protocol in the Kurzweil–Kapor wager.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The 2029 wager deadline is still ahead. The located evidence does not document a completed pass under that contract. Five-minute conversational studies are a different protocol.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 wager deadline is still ahead.", "at_review_rationale": "The located evidence does not document a completed pass under that contract. Five-minute conversational studies are a different protocol.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P03", "locator": "Agreement and detailed Turing-test rules", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P03", "locator": "Kapor takes the NO side; Kurzweil takes the opposing side. Detailed test conditions belong to this contract, not to every generic use of “Turing test.”", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O21", "locator": "Five-minute experimental protocol. GPT-4.5 with a humanlike persona was judged human in 73% of the reported comparisons. Not the two-hour Long Bets protocol.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-024", "relation": "LINK_FAMILY_NOT_EXACT_DUPLICATE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-027", "relation": "LINK_FAMILY_NOT_EXACT_DUPLICATE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-020", "relation": "LINK_FAMILY_NOT_EXACT_DUPLICATE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-011", "relation": "QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED" } ], "subcategory": "Turing test", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A machine passes the specific two-hour, multi-judge protocol in the Kurzweil–Kapor wager.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 wager deadline is still ahead. The located evidence does not document a completed pass under that contract. Five-minute conversational studies are a different protocol.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 wager deadline is still ahead.", "at_review_rationale": "The located evidence does not document a completed pass under that contract. Five-minute conversational studies are a different protocol.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P03", "O21" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A machine passes the specific two-hour, multi-judge protocol in the Kurzweil–Kapor wager.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 wager deadline is still ahead. The located evidence does not document a completed pass under that contract. Five-minute conversational studies are a different protocol.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 wager deadline is still ahead.", "at_review_rationale": "The located evidence does not document a completed pass under that contract. Five-minute conversational studies are a different protocol.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P03", "O21" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A machine is judged human in a controlled short conversational imitation test.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2025 study supports this relaxed test. It does not settle the contract.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Two-hour interviews and contractual judging conditions" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P03", "O21" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2025 Jones/Bergen experiment used five-minute conversations. It is important evidence about conversational imitation but does not by itself settle this different contract.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K024", "slug": "k024-bloodstream-nanobots-for-scouting-and-limited-repair", "title": "Bloodstream nanobots for scouting and limited repair", "prediction_paraphrase": "Bloodstream nanobots perform scouting and limited repairs.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Biology & medicine", "tags": [ "nanorobots", "clinical deployment" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "F-NANOBOTS", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "CONFIRMED_RELATED_VERSION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Deployed in-body nanorobots scout the bloodstream and carry out limited repair, beyond passive drug nanoparticles.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending. Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Health care in 2029", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N29", "locator": "Clinical translation, safety and manufacturing challenges; nanoparticles are not autonomous bloodstream repair robots.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "The disputed 2019 legacy attribution is not silently changed into this 2029 claim; its reconciliation history remains available.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-025", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-015", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-024", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Nanomedicine", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Deployed in-body nanorobots scout the bloodstream and carry out limited repair, beyond passive drug nanoparticles.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending. Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N29" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Deployed in-body nanorobots scout the bloodstream and carry out limited repair, beyond passive drug nanoparticles.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending. Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N29" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Deployed in-body nanorobots scout the bloodstream and carry out limited repair, beyond passive drug nanoparticles.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending. Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The verified adaptation puts this version in 2029, so it is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical microrobotics has genuine experimental progress but clinical translation and in-body autonomy remain material gaps.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N29" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "This checked article places the claim in 2029. The unlocated 2019 versions in the intake remain unresolved separately; this later version must not erase a genuinely earlier forecast should it be found.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K025", "slug": "k025-a-thousand-dollar-brain-capacity-computer-in-2020", "title": "A thousand-dollar brain-capacity computer in 2020", "prediction_paraphrase": "$1,000 purchases human-brain computational capacity.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "brain equivalence", "operations per second" ], "claim_type": "PERFORMANCE_COST", "family_id": "F-BRAIN-COMPUTE", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-026", "EXE-018" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "DATED_DIALOGUE_IN_LATER_REPOST", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2020", "deadline_year": 2020, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2020, "year_end": 2020, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "About $1,000 purchases the forecast’s roughly 10^16 calculations/second brain-hardware budget, using an explicit arithmetic proxy.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "A 2020 RTX 3080 delivered roughly 3×10^13 FP32 operations/second, well below 10^16 even before the rest of the PC. The checked $999-launch RTX 5080 class remains below 10^16 even using the much less comparable low-precision AI figure. The constant-dollar adjustment does not bridge the large FP32 gap.", "at_deadline_rationale": "A 2020 RTX 3080 delivered roughly 3×10^13 FP32 operations/second, well below 10^16 even before the rest of the PC.", "at_review_rationale": "The checked $999-launch RTX 5080 class remains below 10^16 even using the much less comparable low-precision AI figure. The constant-dollar adjustment does not bridge the large FP32 gap.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P04", "locator": "Question 6", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P04", "locator": "Page identifies the dialogue as 2005. Store dialogue year 2005 separately from archive publication date 2011. Not a checked scan of the 2005 book.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N09", "locator": "RTX 3080 launch price $699 and roughly 30 FP32 shader TFLOPS. Tensor, ray-tracing and shader operations are not interchangeable.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N10", "locator": "10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N11", "locator": "RTX 5080 launch MSRP $999, 1,801 AI TOPS. Launch prices are not represented as October 2026 retail quotes; a GPU also is not a whole PC.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "FP32 is an explicit editorial comparison, not a biological unit. Low-precision/sparse TOPS, CPU instructions and brain synaptic operations cannot be equated without a model.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-026", "relation": "MERGE_SAME_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-018", "relation": "MERGE_SAME_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-017", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Price/performance", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "About $1,000 purchases the forecast’s roughly 10^16 calculations/second brain-hardware budget, using an explicit arithmetic proxy.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "A 2020 RTX 3080 delivered roughly 3×10^13 FP32 operations/second, well below 10^16 even before the rest of the PC. The checked $999-launch RTX 5080 class remains below 10^16 even using the much less comparable low-precision AI figure. The constant-dollar adjustment does not bridge the large FP32 gap.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "A 2020 RTX 3080 delivered roughly 3×10^13 FP32 operations/second, well below 10^16 even before the rest of the PC.", "at_review_rationale": "The checked $999-launch RTX 5080 class remains below 10^16 even using the much less comparable low-precision AI figure. The constant-dollar adjustment does not bridge the large FP32 gap.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P04", "N09", "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2020, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "About $1,000 purchases the forecast’s roughly 10^16 calculations/second brain-hardware budget, using an explicit arithmetic proxy.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "A 2020 RTX 3080 delivered roughly 3×10^13 FP32 operations/second, well below 10^16 even before the rest of the PC. The checked $999-launch RTX 5080 class remains below 10^16 even using the much less comparable low-precision AI figure. The constant-dollar adjustment does not bridge the large FP32 gap.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "A 2020 RTX 3080 delivered roughly 3×10^13 FP32 operations/second, well below 10^16 even before the rest of the PC.", "at_review_rationale": "The checked $999-launch RTX 5080 class remains below 10^16 even using the much less comparable low-precision AI figure. The constant-dollar adjustment does not bridge the large FP32 gap.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P04", "N09", "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2020, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A $1,000-class machine provides useful human-like AI tasks rather than matching a numeric brain-compute estimate.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Useful AI does not establish whole-brain throughput or general human intelligence; this task-capability reading is only partially realized.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Numeric throughput threshold and hardware-only comparison" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P04", "N09", "N10", "N11" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2020, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "UNSCORABLE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The Q&A provides a numerical modeling estimate, not a scientifically settled conversion between brain function and GPU operations. Promotional low-precision accelerator throughput cannot establish full human-brain emulation.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K026", "slug": "k026-automated-intelligent-highways", "title": "Automated intelligent highways", "prediction_paraphrase": "Cars lock into automated highway control systems.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Robotics & transportation", "tags": [ "infrastructure control" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "F-AUTOMATED-DRIVING", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-014" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Ordinary intelligent highways accept a vehicle into automatic road-control infrastructure while local roads remain conventional.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009. Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Business and Economics, prediction 18, printed p. 82", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O15", "locator": "Closed-course research challenge, not everyday automated public-highway infrastructure.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N07", "locator": "Geofenced Phoenix service, not all roads, universal ownership, or road-embedded guidance infrastructure.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O14", "locator": "Live guidance checked for this review. Describes limited operating areas for automated fleets and driver-attention requirements of consumer vehicles; not a historical 2009 market census.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-028", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-022", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-009", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-014", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-004", "relation": "QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED" } ], "subcategory": "Intelligent highways", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Ordinary intelligent highways accept a vehicle into automatic road-control infrastructure while local roads remain conventional.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009. Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O15", "N07", "O14" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Ordinary intelligent highways accept a vehicle into automatic road-control infrastructure while local roads remain conventional.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009. Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O15", "N07", "O14" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Driverless travel is offered on public roads, regardless of whether intelligence is onboard or in the road.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Public fully driverless Waymo service establishes this functional result in 2020.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Infrastructure mechanism and highway-specific form" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2020, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O15", "N07", "O14" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "WRONG_MISSED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The retrospective acknowledges the prediction was wrong at the deadline. A closed-course DARPA challenge was not public highway deployment. Later onboard-autonomy robotaxis are not automatically the same infrastructure mechanism.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K027", "slug": "k027-life-expectancy-over-100", "title": "Life expectancy over 100", "prediction_paraphrase": "Expected human lifespan exceeds 100 years.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Longevity", "tags": [ "period versus cohort" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "F-LIFE-EXPECTANCY", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-013" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.", "at_review_rationale": "CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Health care in 2019", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O16", "locator": "Final US period life expectancy for 2019: 78.8 years. A national period measure, not a prediction of a newborn cohort’s eventual lifespan.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O17", "locator": "Final US period life expectancy for 2024: 79.0 years. Do not call this a 2026 observation.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Period life expectancy is the reference measurable interpretation. A forecast about an unspecified future cohort would need its own model; it is not evidence of present achievement.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-013", "relation": "SPLIT_AND_QUARANTINE_UNLOCATED_CLAUSE" } ], "subcategory": "Population life expectancy", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.", "at_review_rationale": "CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O16", "O17" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.", "at_review_rationale": "CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O16", "O17" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.", "at_review_rationale": "CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O16", "O17" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "WRONG_MISSED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Final US life expectancy was 78.8 in 2019 and 79.0 in 2024. Even this high-income-country example does not support the general claim. The judgment is explicitly under the conventional period-life-expectancy reading.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K028", "slug": "k028-life-expectancy-reaches-120", "title": "Life expectancy reaches 120", "prediction_paraphrase": "Human life expectancy reaches 120 years.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Longevity", "tags": [ "period versus cohort" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "F-LIFE-EXPECTANCY", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-013" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Population life expectancy reaches 120 years.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early. Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early.", "at_review_rationale": "Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Health care in 2029", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O17", "locator": "Final US period life expectancy for 2024: 79.0 years. Do not call this a 2026 observation.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-013", "relation": "SPLIT_AND_QUARANTINE_UNLOCATED_CLAUSE" } ], "subcategory": "Population life expectancy", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Population life expectancy reaches 120 years.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early. Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early.", "at_review_rationale": "Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O17" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Population life expectancy reaches 120 years.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early. Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early.", "at_review_rationale": "Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O17" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Population life expectancy reaches 120 years.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early. Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The target is 2029; no deadline failure is assigned early.", "at_review_rationale": "Observed life expectancy remains far below 120, despite specific medical improvements.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O17" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The deadline has not passed. The available statistics provide a baseline, not a reason to call a 2029 forecast wrong in 2026.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K029", "slug": "k029-gesture-and-spoken-language-become-dominant-input", "title": "Gesture and spoken language become dominant input", "prediction_paraphrase": "Most computer interaction uses gestures and natural speech.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "gestures", "speech", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K029", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-019" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Gestures and natural spoken interaction predominate and keyboards become rare, retaining the substantive keyboard-rarity clause.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Touchscreens and assistants were widespread by 2019, but keyboards remained normal. Multimodal AI expands the predicted interface, yet physical and on-screen keyboards are not rare. The compound remains partial.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Touchscreens and assistants were widespread by 2019, but keyboards remained normal.", "at_review_rationale": "Multimodal AI expands the predicted interface, yet physical and on-screen keyboards are not rare. The compound remains partial.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2019: keyboards and interaction", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O10", "locator": "Announcement; retail availability October 14. This is NOT the first-ever voice assistant, nor the first standalone Siri release.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N53", "locator": "968 million smartphones; Android plus iOS dominated. Inferring physical-keyboard-free portable computing requires a population definition, not simply counting all feature phones.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-019", "relation": "RESTORE_ADOPTION_THRESHOLD" } ], "subcategory": "Human-computer interaction", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Gestures and natural spoken interaction predominate and keyboards become rare, retaining the substantive keyboard-rarity clause.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Touchscreens and assistants were widespread by 2019, but keyboards remained normal. Multimodal AI expands the predicted interface, yet physical and on-screen keyboards are not rare. The compound remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Touchscreens and assistants were widespread by 2019, but keyboards remained normal.", "at_review_rationale": "Multimodal AI expands the predicted interface, yet physical and on-screen keyboards are not rare. The compound remains partial.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O10", "N53", "N46" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Gestures and natural spoken interaction predominate and keyboards become rare, retaining the substantive keyboard-rarity clause.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Touchscreens and assistants were widespread by 2019, but keyboards remained normal. Multimodal AI expands the predicted interface, yet physical and on-screen keyboards are not rare. The compound remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Touchscreens and assistants were widespread by 2019, but keyboards remained normal.", "at_review_rationale": "Multimodal AI expands the predicted interface, yet physical and on-screen keyboards are not rare. The compound remains partial.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O10", "N53", "N46" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Natural speech and gestures become ordinary major ways to interact, without keyboard disappearance.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Phones and voice assistants realize this less demanding interaction claim by 2019.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Keyboard rarity and dominance threshold" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O10", "N53", "N46" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "Siri/Alexa existence is insufficient. A representative usage denominator and the meaning of gesture versus touch typing still need to be established.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K030", "slug": "k030-routine-high-acuity-retinal-displays", "title": "Routine high-acuity retinal displays", "prediction_paraphrase": "Retinal glasses or contacts are routinely used.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "visual acuity", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K030", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-009" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Retinal glasses/contacts with the specified exceptional resolution are routinely worn, not just demonstrated.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Near-eye displays existed in 2019, but mainstream routine use at the asserted acuity did not. Practical headsets/AR prove part of the direction, not routine retinal contacts or acuity above human vision.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Near-eye displays existed in 2019, but mainstream routine use at the asserted acuity did not.", "at_review_rationale": "Practical headsets/AR prove part of the direction, not routine retinal contacts or acuity above human vision.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2019: direct-eye displays", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N04", "locator": "Microvision-issued release hosted by The Auto Channel: actual industrial deployment. Head-worn see-through retinal display; not ordinary prescription-glasses styling or mass consumer adoption.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N05", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-009", "relation": "SPLIT_DISTINCT_CAPABILITIES" } ], "subcategory": "Retinal displays", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Retinal glasses/contacts with the specified exceptional resolution are routinely worn, not just demonstrated.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Near-eye displays existed in 2019, but mainstream routine use at the asserted acuity did not. Practical headsets/AR prove part of the direction, not routine retinal contacts or acuity above human vision.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Near-eye displays existed in 2019, but mainstream routine use at the asserted acuity did not.", "at_review_rationale": "Practical headsets/AR prove part of the direction, not routine retinal contacts or acuity above human vision.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04", "N05" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Retinal glasses/contacts with the specified exceptional resolution are routinely worn, not just demonstrated.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Near-eye displays existed in 2019, but mainstream routine use at the asserted acuity did not. Practical headsets/AR prove part of the direction, not routine retinal contacts or acuity above human vision.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Near-eye displays existed in 2019, but mainstream routine use at the asserted acuity did not.", "at_review_rationale": "Practical headsets/AR prove part of the direction, not routine retinal contacts or acuity above human vision.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04", "N05" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Practical consumer immersive/AR near-eye displays are available.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Quest and other head-worn systems satisfy availability by 2019.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Routine broad wearing", "Retinal implementation and above-human acuity" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N04", "N05" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The source is located; the earlier “Google Glass exists” comparison did not test the required mechanism, acuity or adoption. A defensible device/adoption evidence set is still needed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K031", "slug": "k031-convincing-full-body-tactile-virtual-reality", "title": "Convincing full-body tactile virtual reality", "prediction_paraphrase": "Widely available booths reproduce the full tactile experience.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "tags": [ "full-body sensation", "VR" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K031", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-017" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "A widely available booth convincingly reproduces whole-body pressure, temperature, texture and wetness.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019. Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Personal relationships in 2019: total-touch environment", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N28", "locator": "Local finger-scale multimodal haptics; not whole-body, all-sensation realism. Preprint status retained.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "A substantial gap in a central all-enveloping capability earns MISSED, not automatic partial credit for a related component.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-017", "relation": "RESTORE_MODALITY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-028", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Haptics", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A widely available booth convincingly reproduces whole-body pressure, temperature, texture and wetness.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019. Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N28" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A widely available booth convincingly reproduces whole-body pressure, temperature, texture and wetness.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019. Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N28" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "VR systems provide useful partial haptic feedback.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Haptic feedback is real, but treating any vibration as the full prediction would discard its central specification.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Whole-body and all-sensation fidelity" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N28" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "Audiovisual headsets are not evidence of this all-body tactile outcome. The imported broad “VR indistinguishable” wording hid the actual test. No verified full-achievement date is supplied.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K032", "slug": "k032-high-bandwidth-neural-interfaces-augment-brain-functions", "title": "High-bandwidth neural interfaces augment brain functions", "prediction_paraphrase": "Neural links augment or bypass specialized brain functions.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Neuroscience & human augmentation", "tags": [ "bandwidth", "cognitive functions" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "F-BRAIN-INTERFACE", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-010" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "High-bandwidth neural links materially replace or augment specialized brain-region functions.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future. Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future.", "at_review_rationale": "Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2029: neural pathways", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O23", "locator": "Cochlear implants do not restore normal hearing. Used to correct a medical error in our intake, not to manufacture a Kurzweil forecast.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N15", "locator": "Mouse cell atlas, not a functional emulation of the entire human brain.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N16", "locator": "Adult fruit-fly connectome. Species, wiring map and functional cognitive model must not be conflated.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Therapeutic sensory restoration, connectivity maps and generalized cognition augmentation are different capabilities.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-029", "relation": "QUARANTINE_COMPOUND_OR_UNLOCATED" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-030", "relation": "QUARANTINE_COMPOUND_OR_UNLOCATED" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-030", "relation": "QUARANTINE_COMPOUND_OR_UNLOCATED" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-010", "relation": "CANONICALIZE" } ], "subcategory": "Neural augmentation", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "High-bandwidth neural links materially replace or augment specialized brain-region functions.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future. Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future.", "at_review_rationale": "Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O23", "N15", "N16" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "High-bandwidth neural links materially replace or augment specialized brain-region functions.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future. Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future.", "at_review_rationale": "Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O23", "N15", "N16" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "High-bandwidth neural links materially replace or augment specialized brain-region functions.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future. Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline is future.", "at_review_rationale": "Clinical sensory implants and neural-interface research support partial progress, not the broadly perfected high-bandwidth cognitive bypass described.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O23", "N15", "N16" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The original functional requirements are materially stronger than demonstrating a human BCI trial. The deadline remains future.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K033", "slug": "k033-supercomputers-reach-20-quadrillion-calculations-per-second", "title": "Supercomputers reach 20 quadrillion calculations per second", "prediction_paraphrase": "Supercomputers reach approximately 2×10^16 calculations per second.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "operations per second", "FLOPS proxy", "timing interval" ], "claim_type": "PERFORMANCE_COST", "family_id": "F-BRAIN-COMPUTE", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-012" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "A supercomputer sustains approximately 20 petaflops on a named numerical benchmark; this is the explicit hardware-throughput proxy.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target. Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target.", "at_review_rationale": "Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.", "first_full_achievement_year": 2013, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": 4, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2009: numerical hardware estimate", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O18", "locator": "Jaguar Rmax 1.759 petaflops; Rpeak 2.331 petaflops. Rmax is measured LINPACK performance, not brain emulation.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O19", "locator": "Sequoia Rpeak 20.13266 petaflops and Rmax 16.32475; Titan Rpeak 27.11255 and Rmax 17.59. Peak and measured values must not be mixed.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O20", "locator": "Tianhe-2 recorded 33.86 petaflops Rmax. This establishes a public measured milestone, not a cognition milestone.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "This establishes numerical hardware capacity only. Neither 2012 nor 2013 is evidence of simulating a human mind.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-012", "relation": "SPLIT_AND_HOLD_PRICE_VARIANT" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-017", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Supercomputer performance", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "HIGH", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A supercomputer sustains approximately 20 petaflops on a named numerical benchmark; this is the explicit hardware-throughput proxy.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target. Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2013, "at_deadline_rationale": "The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target.", "at_review_rationale": "Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O18", "O19", "O20" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A supercomputer sustains approximately 20 petaflops on a named numerical benchmark; this is the explicit hardware-throughput proxy.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target. Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2013, "at_deadline_rationale": "The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target.", "at_review_rationale": "Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O18", "O19", "O20" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Use advertised peak arithmetic rather than sustained LINPACK.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Titan’s peak exceeded 20 petaflops in 2012, producing a three-year rather than four-year delay.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Sustained versus theoretical peak throughput" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2012, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O18", "O19", "O20" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": 2013, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "EXACT_EVENT", "label": "2013; +4 years", "drift_years": 4, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED_UNDER_STATED_HARDWARE_PROXY", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "November 2009’s leader was below the threshold. Listed peak performance exceeded it by 2012; publicly listed measured LINPACK performance exceeded it in 2013. This supports a qualified hardware timing miss, with a 3–4-year interval depending on the metric.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2013, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": [ 3, 4 ], "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Qualified hardware-proxy assessment; not a verified brain-capacity equivalence. Excluded from default strict aggregate." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K034", "slug": "k034-the-2019-thousand-dollar-brain-compute-estimate", "title": "The 2019 thousand-dollar brain-compute estimate", "prediction_paraphrase": "$1,000 in 1999 dollars buys brain-scale computation.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "brain equivalence", "currency basis" ], "claim_type": "PERFORMANCE_COST", "family_id": "F-BRAIN-COMPUTE", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "CONFIRMED_RELATED_VERSION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "A circa-$1,000 consumer budget, inflation-adjusted from 1999, buys approximately 20 petaflops of ordinary arithmetic capacity.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput. Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput.", "at_review_rationale": "Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2019: opening paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N09", "locator": "RTX 3080 launch price $699 and roughly 30 FP32 shader TFLOPS. Tensor, ray-tracing and shader operations are not interchangeable.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N10", "locator": "10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N11", "locator": "RTX 5080 launch MSRP $999, 1,801 AI TOPS. Launch prices are not represented as October 2026 retail quotes; a GPU also is not a whole PC.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "A different precision or sparse-operation convention changes the number, not automatically the biological claim. Current consumer comparison is illustrative, not a full auction-price optimization.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-012", "relation": "SPLIT_AND_HOLD_PRICE_VARIANT" } ], "subcategory": "Price/performance", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A circa-$1,000 consumer budget, inflation-adjusted from 1999, buys approximately 20 petaflops of ordinary arithmetic capacity.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput. Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput.", "at_review_rationale": "Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N09", "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A circa-$1,000 consumer budget, inflation-adjusted from 1999, buys approximately 20 petaflops of ordinary arithmetic capacity.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput. Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput.", "at_review_rationale": "Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N09", "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A circa-$1,000 consumer budget, inflation-adjusted from 1999, buys approximately 20 petaflops of ordinary arithmetic capacity.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput. Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Consumer hardware in 2019 was orders of magnitude below 20 petaflops in conventional FP32 throughput.", "at_review_rationale": "Current checked consumer GPU specifications remain far short on that basis. Inflation adjustment and GPU-only accounting do not rescue the order-of-magnitude mismatch.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N09", "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "UNSCORABLE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The article specifies $1,000 in 1999 dollars. The intake’s alleged $4,000 book version is not confirmed here and cannot be silently overwritten. The brain-equivalence metric also remains undefined.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K035", "slug": "k035-thousand-brain-computation-for-a-thousand-dollars", "title": "Thousand-brain computation for a thousand dollars", "prediction_paraphrase": "$1,000 buys approximately 1,000 brains of computation.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "brain equivalence", "operations per second" ], "claim_type": "PERFORMANCE_COST", "family_id": "F-BRAIN-COMPUTE", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-012", "EXE-022" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured.", "at_review_rationale": "Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2029: opening paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N10", "locator": "10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N11", "locator": "RTX 5080 launch MSRP $999, 1,801 AI TOPS. Launch prices are not represented as October 2026 retail quotes; a GPU also is not a whole PC.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-012", "relation": "SPLIT_AND_HOLD_PRICE_VARIANT" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-022", "relation": "CANONICALIZE" } ], "subcategory": "Price/performance", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured.", "at_review_rationale": "Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured.", "at_review_rationale": "Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 forecast has not matured.", "at_review_rationale": "Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N10", "N11" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "A future numerical hardware forecast with an unresolved brain-equivalence interpretation. Do not use model marketing or a single low-precision accelerator specification to declare it already fulfilled.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K036", "slug": "k036-effective-models-of-all-brain-regions", "title": "Effective models of all brain regions", "prediction_paraphrase": "Effective models cover the entire human brain.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Neuroscience & human augmentation", "tags": [ "reverse engineering", "scope" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K036", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-019" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2005, "year_basis": "DATED_DIALOGUE_IN_LATER_REPOST", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "Mid-2020s: reference 2025; sensitivity interval 2024–2026.", "deadline_year": 2025, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2025, "year_end": 2025, "interpretation": "Mid-2020s: reference 2025; sensitivity interval 2024–2026." }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Effective functional models cover all major human brain regions and their integrated operation, not just a wiring atlas.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Using 2025 as the explicit midpoint of “mid-2020s,” major regional/animal mapping existed but not this complete human functional model. The human cortical parcellation, mouse atlas and fly connectome are genuine partial achievements. They do not establish complete human emulation.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Using 2025 as the explicit midpoint of “mid-2020s,” major regional/animal mapping existed but not this complete human functional model.", "at_review_rationale": "The human cortical parcellation, mouse atlas and fly connectome are genuine partial achievements. They do not establish complete human emulation.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": "REFERENCE_DATE_2025", "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P04", "locator": "Question 7", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N15", "locator": "Mouse cell atlas, not a functional emulation of the entire human brain.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N16", "locator": "Adult fruit-fly connectome. Species, wiring map and functional cognitive model must not be conflated.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N48", "locator": "180 cortical areas per hemisphere; direct evidence of improved regional brain understanding, not whole-brain functional reconstruction.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "The current partial result is robust; only deadline status changes under the generous 2026 endpoint. The reference-year choice is visibly editorial, not presented as an exact original year.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-019", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE_AND_HOLD_DATE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-026", "relation": "QUARANTINE_GARBLED_COMPOUND" } ], "subcategory": "Brain modeling", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": true, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Effective functional models cover all major human brain regions and their integrated operation, not just a wiring atlas.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Using 2025 as the explicit midpoint of “mid-2020s,” major regional/animal mapping existed but not this complete human functional model. The human cortical parcellation, mouse atlas and fly connectome are genuine partial achievements. They do not establish complete human emulation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Using 2025 as the explicit midpoint of “mid-2020s,” major regional/animal mapping existed but not this complete human functional model.", "at_review_rationale": "The human cortical parcellation, mouse atlas and fly connectome are genuine partial achievements. They do not establish complete human emulation.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N15", "N16", "N48" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2025, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Same functional criterion, but allow the entire mid-2020s window through December 2026.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "At the October 2026 review the latest plausible deadline has not closed; the current outcome is still partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "DEADLINE_WINDOW_SENSITIVITY", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N15", "N16", "N48" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2026, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Effective functional models cover all major human brain regions and their integrated operation, not just a wiring atlas.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Using 2025 as the explicit midpoint of “mid-2020s,” major regional/animal mapping existed but not this complete human functional model. The human cortical parcellation, mouse atlas and fly connectome are genuine partial achievements. They do not establish complete human emulation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Using 2025 as the explicit midpoint of “mid-2020s,” major regional/animal mapping existed but not this complete human functional model.", "at_review_rationale": "The human cortical parcellation, mouse atlas and fly connectome are genuine partial achievements. They do not establish complete human emulation.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N15", "N16", "N48" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2025, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The intake converted a broad modeling claim into a stronger brain-emulation milestone. “Mid-2020s” is not automatically December 2025, particularly in an October 2026 audit. Scope and deadline policy must precede a verdict.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K037", "slug": "k037-developed-world-universal-basic-income", "title": "Developed-world universal basic income", "prediction_paraphrase": "UBI across developed economies.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "tags": [ "developed economies" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "F-UBI", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-031", "EXE-023" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2018, "year_basis": "SOURCE_PUBLICATION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "REPORTED_EVENT_YEAR" }, "target": { "text": "Early 2030s; reference endpoint 2033, not a newly asserted exact quote.", "deadline_year": 2033, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2033, "year_end": 2033, "interpretation": "Early 2030s; reference endpoint 2033, not a newly asserted exact quote." }, "source_verification": { "state": "REPORTED_ATTRIBUTION_ORIGINAL_TRANSCRIPT_NOT_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": false }, "success_criteria": "Unconditional basic income operates generally across developed economies, not just a local trial.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint. Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint.", "at_review_rationale": "Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P06", "locator": "Report of TED remarks", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P06", "locator": "Secondary, contemporaneous attribution of a TED appearance. Original event transcript was not obtained; lower attribution confidence. Not used as technical outcome evidence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Current policy-progress judgment has medium confidence; no precise global program count or fiscal prediction is asserted.", "open_questions": [], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-031", "relation": "SPLIT_INDEPENDENT_DEADLINES" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-023", "relation": "SPLIT_INDEPENDENT_DEADLINES" } ], "subcategory": "Universal basic income", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Unconditional basic income operates generally across developed economies, not just a local trial.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint. Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint.", "at_review_rationale": "Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P06" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2033, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Unconditional basic income operates generally across developed economies, not just a local trial.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint. Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint.", "at_review_rationale": "Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P06" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2033, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Unconditional basic income operates generally across developed economies, not just a local trial.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint. Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early 2030s remains future; use 2033 as an explicit reference endpoint.", "at_review_rationale": "Pilots and limited programs do not constitute the cross-economy rollout. Attribution rests on contemporaneous reporting rather than a located full primary transcript.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P06" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2033, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Future; primary transcript still needed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K038", "slug": "k038-worldwide-universal-basic-income", "title": "Worldwide universal basic income", "prediction_paraphrase": "Worldwide UBI.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "tags": [ "global adoption" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "F-UBI", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-031", "EXE-023" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2018, "year_basis": "SOURCE_PUBLICATION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "REPORTED_EVENT_YEAR" }, "target": { "text": "2039", "deadline_year": 2039, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2039, "year_end": 2039, "interpretation": "End of the 2030s interpreted as calendar 2039; source says end of decade." }, "source_verification": { "state": "REPORTED_ATTRIBUTION_ORIGINAL_TRANSCRIPT_NOT_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": false }, "success_criteria": "Basic income is implemented worldwide, not merely discussed or piloted.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending. The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P06", "locator": "Report of TED remarks", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P06", "locator": "Secondary, contemporaneous attribution of a TED appearance. Original event transcript was not obtained; lower attribution confidence. Not used as technical outcome evidence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "A published forecast sourced through contemporaneous reporting. This is not a financial recommendation or an assertion of universal benefit coverage.", "open_questions": [], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-031", "relation": "SPLIT_INDEPENDENT_DEADLINES" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-023", "relation": "SPLIT_INDEPENDENT_DEADLINES" } ], "subcategory": "Universal basic income", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Basic income is implemented worldwide, not merely discussed or piloted.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending. The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P06" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2039, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Basic income is implemented worldwide, not merely discussed or piloted.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending. The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P06" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2039, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Basic income is implemented worldwide, not merely discussed or piloted.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending. The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The late-2030s/worldwide forecast is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "The present evidence supports experimentation, not a worldwide income floor.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P06" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2039, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Future; primary transcript still needed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K039", "slug": "k039-nonlinear-electronic-documents", "title": "Nonlinear electronic documents", "prediction_paraphrase": "Electronic documents become interactive and nonlinear.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "tags": [ "hypertext" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "K039", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-005" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1990, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "next century", "deadline_year": null, "precision": "NO_TESTABLE_DEADLINE", "year_start": null, "year_end": null, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Electronic documents support routine nonlinear navigation, linking and interaction.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate. The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "at_deadline_rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate.", "at_review_rationale": "The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 1993, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "No resolvable deadline; outcome nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": "UNDATED", "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Age of Intelligent Machines excerpts, printed pp. 124–126; original-book pp. 428–430", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N36", "locator": "Web invention in 1989 and subsequent 1990s development. Realization is established; this does not prove it was wholly novel to a 1990 forecaster.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Undated does not mean outcome-unassessable. A successful directional forecast can still lack timing credit or novelty.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-005", "relation": "REMOVE_INVENTED_DEADLINE" } ], "subcategory": "Electronic documents", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Electronic documents support routine nonlinear navigation, linking and interaction.", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate. The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 1993, "at_deadline_rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate.", "at_review_rationale": "The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N36" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": null, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Electronic documents support routine nonlinear navigation, linking and interaction.", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate. The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 1993, "at_deadline_rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate.", "at_review_rationale": "The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N36" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": null, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Electronic documents support routine nonlinear navigation, linking and interaction.", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate. The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 1993, "at_deadline_rationale": "No precise deadline is established for this version; do not manufacture an on-time rate.", "at_review_rationale": "The Web plainly fulfills the functional claim. CERN’s history establishes the 1990s realization; attribution novelty is distinct from whether the outcome occurred.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N36" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": null, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 1993, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 1993", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "UNSCORABLE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The located passage supports the general concept, not the intake’s exact 2000s deadline. An obvious eventual development does not validate an invented forecast date.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K040", "slug": "k040-information-technology-pressures-authoritarian-control", "title": "Information technology pressures authoritarian control", "prediction_paraphrase": "Information technology creates a dilemma for authoritarian control.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "tags": [ "authoritarian control", "conditional claim" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "K040", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "AUD-003", "DEC-002" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1990, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "conditional / no fixed deadline", "deadline_year": null, "precision": "CONDITIONAL", "year_start": null, "year_end": null, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Information technology makes authoritarian information control harder while also enabling governments to respond.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used. Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "at_deadline_rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used.", "at_review_rationale": "Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "No resolvable deadline; outcome nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": "UNDATED", "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Age of Intelligent Machines excerpts, printed pp. 127–128; original-book pp. 445–447", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N37", "locator": "Original research on freedom online; supports a mixed information-access/control story, not a causal attribution of the Soviet collapse.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Mixed outcome, not a claim that technology caused the Soviet collapse. Causal attribution is weaker than the observed access/control tension.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-003", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-002", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Political institutions", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Information technology makes authoritarian information control harder while also enabling governments to respond.", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used. Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used.", "at_review_rationale": "Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N37" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": null, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Information technology makes authoritarian information control harder while also enabling governments to respond.", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used. Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used.", "at_review_rationale": "Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N37" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": null, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Information technology makes authoritarian information control harder while also enabling governments to respond.", "at_deadline": "UNDATED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used. Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "This is a conditional, undated societal forecast; no invented 1991 deadline is used.", "at_review_rationale": "Global information access creates real pressures, but digital repression and persistent authoritarian control prevent a simple democracy-caused-by-technology verdict.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N37" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": null, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Undated forecast; current outcome assessed without timing credit", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "UNSCORABLE", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The located passage discusses competing consequences, including stronger state control. The intake turned this into an unconditional historical-event forecast and awarded an easy 1991 hit. That transformation is not supported.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K041", "slug": "k041-wearable-diagnosis-and-health-intervention", "title": "Wearable diagnosis and health intervention", "prediction_paraphrase": "Wearables commonly diagnose conditions and support intervention.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Biology & medicine", "tags": [ "wearables", "diagnosis", "intervention" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K041", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "CONFIRMED_RELATED_VERSION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Common wearable monitors identify selected acute and chronic problems and trigger useful advice or intervention pathways.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption. Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "at_deadline_rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption.", "at_review_rationale": "Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2019, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Health care in 2019: computerized monitors", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O22", "locator": "AFib-related features are limited-purpose. The release expressly lists conditions they cannot detect; not general diagnosis or autonomous treatment.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N25", "locator": "ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; ECG deployment corroborated by December 2018 release O22. Not diagnosis of all diseases or autonomous treatment.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N01", "locator": "June 2019 US survey: 21% regularly wear one. Common does not mean majority, and US adult prevalence is not global prevalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "This is an audit, not medical advice. ECG classification is not universal diagnosis; false results and the need for clinical interpretation remain. “Intervention” includes automated emergency escalation.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-029", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Digital health", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Common wearable monitors identify selected acute and chronic problems and trigger useful advice or intervention pathways.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption. Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption.", "at_review_rationale": "Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O22", "N25", "N01" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Common wearable monitors identify selected acute and chronic problems and trigger useful advice or intervention pathways.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption. Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "SAME_AS_REFERENCE", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption.", "at_review_rationale": "Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O22", "N25", "N01" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Common wearable monitors identify selected acute and chronic problems and trigger useful advice or intervention pathways.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption. Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "By late 2018 Apple Watch combined ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; the 2019 wearable survey supports common adoption.", "at_review_rationale": "Those capabilities satisfy a reasonable targeted-condition reading. The forecast did not demand diagnosis of every disease or removal of physicians.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O22", "N25", "N01" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2019, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2019", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "PARTIAL", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Apple released wrist ECG and irregular-rhythm alerts in 2018. Its documentation lists important conditions those features cannot detect. This establishes a meaningful but limited part of the broad diagnostic/intervention claim.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "non_scoring_comparators": [ { "criterion": "Wearables independently make definitive clinical diagnoses across acute/chronic conditions and directly administer treatment.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Risk flags and emergency escalation are not equivalent to broad standalone diagnosis plus treatment. The stronger clinical reading remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O22", "N25", "N01" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "comparator_warning": "Stronger than the located wording; not an obligation of the original forecast and excluded from accuracy calculations.", "eligible_for_author_accuracy": false } ], "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K042", "slug": "k042-longevity-escape-velocity", "title": "Longevity escape velocity", "prediction_paraphrase": "Medical progress adds at least a year of remaining life annually.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Longevity", "tags": [ "remaining life expectancy" ], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME", "family_id": "F-LONGEVITY-ESCAPE", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "ADDED_PRIMARY_SOURCE", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2024, "year_basis": "SOURCE_PUBLICATION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": false }, "success_criteria": "Medical progress adds at least one year of remaining healthy life per calendar year for the relevant people.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future. Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P05", "locator": "36:56, Longevity escape velocity", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P05", "locator": "Bessemer hosts the interview and timestamped transcript. Do not attribute interviewer comments to Kurzweil. The Q&A section is explicitly summarized; cited passages below are in the main transcript.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O17", "locator": "Final US period life expectancy for 2024: 79.0 years. Do not call this a 2026 observation.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N40", "locator": "Expanded 12-hallmark framework. Shows progress and continued open mechanisms, not a complete model of human lifespan.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Period life-expectancy rebound after a pandemic is not a measurement of sustained escape velocity. Access and cohort definitions must be retained.", "open_questions": [], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-032", "relation": "QUARANTINE_UNSUPPORTED_INFERENCE" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-029", "relation": "QUARANTINE_UNSUPPORTED_INFERENCE" } ], "subcategory": "Longevity escape velocity", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Medical progress adds at least one year of remaining healthy life per calendar year for the relevant people.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future. Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P05", "O17", "N40" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Medical progress adds at least one year of remaining healthy life per calendar year for the relevant people.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future. Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P05", "O17", "N40" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Medical progress adds at least one year of remaining healthy life per calendar year for the relevant people.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future. Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The stated 2029 date remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Medical gains and changing period life expectancy do not demonstrate sustained longevity escape velocity. Current progress is partial, not evidence that the threshold was crossed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P05", "O17", "N40" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The dated interview makes this a 2029 prediction. 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Do not attribute interviewer comments to Kurzweil. The Q&A section is explicitly summarized; cited passages below are in the main transcript.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O23", "locator": "Cochlear implants do not restore normal hearing. 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It must not be backdated to the intake’s alleged 2008 appearance or expanded into completed mind uploading.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K044", "slug": "k044-renewable-electricity-reaches-the-full-demand-threshold", "title": "Renewable electricity reaches the full-demand threshold", "prediction_paraphrase": "Renewables cross the full electricity-demand threshold.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Energy & environment", "tags": [ "generation", "energy accounting" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "F-RENEWABLE-ENERGY", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "ADDED_PRIMARY_SOURCE", "publication": { "forecast_year": 2024, "year_basis": "SOURCE_PUBLICATION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "Within ten years of March 2024: reference 2034.", "deadline_year": 2034, "precision": "EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR", "year_start": 2034, "year_end": 2034, "interpretation": "Within ten years of March 2024: reference 2034." }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": false }, "success_criteria": "Renewable generation supplies all global electricity demand within ten years of the 2024 interview.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The interview implies a 2034 deadline, still pending. IEA places renewables at 34% of 2025 world electricity generation. This is substantial progress but not 100%.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The interview implies a 2034 deadline, still pending.", "at_review_rationale": "IEA places renewables at 34% of 2025 world electricity generation. 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Strong language and benchmark performance provides major partial progress; a short imitation game does not establish the complete general-intelligence claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 target is pending.", "at_review_rationale": "Strong language and benchmark performance provides major partial progress; a short imitation game does not establish the complete general-intelligence claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P04", "O21" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Human-like conversational performance on a controlled short Turing-style test.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2025 study supports early success on this narrower conversational definition.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "General competence narrowed to short conversational imitation" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P04", "O21" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "A dated author Q&A supports the general target. Experimental conversational imitation is relevant progress, not automatic proof of the full general-intelligence claim.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K046", "slug": "k046-portable-computers-in-many-tiny-form-factors", "title": "Portable computers in many tiny form factors", "prediction_paraphrase": "Computers span tiny accessories through thin book-sized devices.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "high-resolution interfaces", "wearables" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K046", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "EXE-008" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Computers are sold in a wide range of small personal forms, including tiny accessories and thin book-sized devices.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors. Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors.", "at_review_rationale": "Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "The Computer Itself, prediction 4, printed pp. 13–14", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N03", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O03", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O05", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O07", "locator": "", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "EXE-008", "relation": "RESTORE_FORM_FACTOR_SCOPE" } ], "subcategory": "Form factors", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Computers are sold in a wide range of small personal forms, including tiny accessories and thin book-sized devices.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors. Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors.", "at_review_rationale": "Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N03", "O03", "O05", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Computers are sold in a wide range of small personal forms, including tiny accessories and thin book-sized devices.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors. Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors.", "at_review_rationale": "Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N03", "O03", "O05", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Computers are sold in a wide range of small personal forms, including tiny accessories and thin book-sized devices.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors. Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Clip-on shuffle, smartphones, Kindle and thin laptops are concrete pre-deadline form factors.", "at_review_rationale": "Illustrative rings/earrings need not all become equally popular for the varied-miniaturization claim to succeed.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N03", "O03", "O05", "O07" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The intake turned a multi-form-factor claim into a tablet success. A source-confirmed scope correction is supplied, without assuming every miniature form had the required usability.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K047", "slug": "k047-automated-systems-eliminate-most-human-driving", "title": "Automated systems eliminate most human driving", "prediction_paraphrase": "Smart roads and automation eliminate most human driving.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Robotics & transportation", "tags": [ "majority displacement" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "F-AUTOMATED-DRIVING", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "ADDED_PRIMARY_SOURCE", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Automation removes more than half of human driving, retaining the forecast’s “most” threshold.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers. Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.", "at_deadline_rationale": "2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers.", "at_review_rationale": "Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Business in 2019: smart roads", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O14", "locator": "Live guidance checked for this review. Describes limited operating areas for automated fleets and driver-attention requirements of consumer vehicles; not a historical 2009 market census.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N07", "locator": "Geofenced Phoenix service, not all roads, universal ownership, or road-embedded guidance infrastructure.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N24", "locator": "2021 global annual road deaths 1.19 million; about 5% below 2010. These are observed-year figures, not invented 2026 counts.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-028", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-022", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" } ], "subcategory": "Driving automation", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Automation removes more than half of human driving, retaining the forecast’s “most” threshold.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers. Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers.", "at_review_rationale": "Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O14", "N07", "N24" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Automation removes more than half of human driving, retaining the forecast’s “most” threshold.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers. Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers.", "at_review_rationale": "Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O14", "N07", "N24" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Fully driverless travel becomes a real commercial service in some cities.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Public Waymo service realizes this weaker capability in 2020, without meeting the original majority threshold.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Most driving", "Smart-road architecture" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2020, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O14", "N07", "N24" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "WRONG_MISSED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Even NHTSA’s current guidance describes limited automated operating areas and driver-attention requirements for consumer vehicles. Waymo’s 2026 expansion confirms real driverless service, but not displacement of most human driving. These later records strongly contradict treating the 2019 majority claim as achieved.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K048", "slug": "k048-common-many-language-speech-to-speech-translation", "title": "Common many-language speech-to-speech translation", "prediction_paraphrase": "Many-pair translating telephones are commonly used.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "tags": [ "speech-to-speech", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "F-SPEECH-TRANSLATION", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "CONFIRMED_RELATED_VERSION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Ordinary users have practical two-way spoken translation for many language pairs; no perfect all-language requirement.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service. Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service.", "at_review_rationale": "Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2015, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Communication, prediction 1, printed p. 50", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O11", "locator": "Fall 2009 university account of English–Spanish speech translation on iPhone. Not evidence of common use across many language pairs.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O12", "locator": "Speech conversation mode expanded to 14 languages; still described as alpha. Not equivalent to translation quality or universal adoption.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N20", "locator": "Conversation and speech translation documented in product updates. Text-language counts must not be presented as speech-language counts; 44-language wearable speech support is separately identified.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N71", "locator": "Shipping real-time spoken translation in Phone for selected language pairs; five languages at initial launch. Not every language, country or device.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N72", "locator": "Current iOS 26 guide lists one-on-one spoken Phone translation across English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese and Korean variants. Supports actual telephone integration, not perfect translation quality.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Do not reuse text-translation language totals as speech totals. The 2015 documented-by year is not asserted as the first possible many-pair translation product.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "AUD-027", "relation": "QUARANTINE_COMPOUND_UNLOCATED" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-008", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-002", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-004", "relation": "QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED" } ], "subcategory": "Machine translation", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Ordinary users have practical two-way spoken translation for many language pairs; no perfect all-language requirement.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service. Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service.", "at_review_rationale": "Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O11", "O12", "N20" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Speech-to-speech translation is integrated into live telephone calls for many ordinary language pairs, without requiring all languages or flawless human equivalence.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2009 product evidence was narrower. Apple documents spoken in-call translation shipping in September 2025, and its current guide lists multiple common languages. This satisfies practical telephone integration; perfect translation was not required.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "LITERAL_TELEPHONE_INTEGRATION", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O11", "O12", "N71", "N72" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Ordinary users have practical two-way spoken translation for many language pairs; no perfect all-language requirement.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service. Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service.", "at_review_rationale": "Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O11", "O12", "N20" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2015, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2015; after 2009, no later than 2015", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "PARTIAL", "at_review": "FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "CMU documented an English–Spanish iPhone speech translator in 2009. Google expanded conversation mode to 14 languages in 2011. That is meaningful capability progress, but neither proves common many-pair use by 2009.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "non_scoring_comparators": [ { "criterion": "Perfect human-quality interpretation for arbitrary calls and all languages.", "warning": "Not demanded by the source; do not score this as a strict forecast.", "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "eligible_for_author_accuracy": false } ], "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K049", "slug": "k049-ubiquitous-bidirectional-cochlear-network-interfaces", "title": "Ubiquitous bidirectional cochlear network interfaces", "prediction_paraphrase": "Cochlear implants become widespread two-way network interfaces.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Neuroscience & human augmentation", "tags": [ "cochlear implants", "two-way communication" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "F-COCHLEAR", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "CONFIRMED_RELATED_VERSION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2029", "deadline_year": 2029, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2029, "year_end": 2029, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Cochlear-style implants are widely used beyond hearing impairment as two-way interfaces to a computing network.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future. Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed.", "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2029: cochlear implants", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O23", "locator": "Cochlear implants do not restore normal hearing. Used to correct a medical error in our intake, not to manufacture a Kurzweil forecast.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Restoring hearing is distinct from bidirectional network communication and widespread elective implantation.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-018", "relation": "QUARANTINE_UNSUPPORTED_MEDICAL_PARAPHRASE" } ], "subcategory": "Auditory interfaces", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Cochlear-style implants are widely used beyond hearing impairment as two-way interfaces to a computing network.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future. Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O23" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Cochlear-style implants are widely used beyond hearing impairment as two-way interfaces to a computing network.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future. Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O23" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Cochlear-style implants are widely used beyond hearing impairment as two-way interfaces to a computing network.", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future. Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2029 deadline remains future.", "at_review_rationale": "Therapeutic cochlear implants establish only a portion of the predicted technology and population. They are not yet a general network interface for ordinary users.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O23" ], "verdict": "PENDING", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "deadline_year": 2029, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Deadline not yet reached", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "ASSESSED", "verdict": "PENDING", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_DUE", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "This is a located, future interface claim. It is not the intake’s invented 2009 proposition that implants cure deafness.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K050", "slug": "k050-invisible-computing-embedded-throughout-the-environment", "title": "Invisible computing embedded throughout the environment", "prediction_paraphrase": "Computing is largely invisible and embedded throughout surroundings.", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "tags": [ "ambient computing", "adoption" ], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K050", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [ "DEC-016", "EXE-009" ], "origin": "LEGACY_RECONCILIATION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": null }, "source_verification": { "state": "TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "success_criteria": "Computing is commonly embedded unobtrusively in everyday objects and systems, rather than confined to visibly separate PCs.", "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Wearables, household robots and networked systems show that embedded computing had become a normal part of surroundings by 2019. The reference treats “everywhere” as pervasive integration, not a requirement to implant computers in every chair, wall or person.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Wearables, household robots and networked systems show that embedded computing had become a normal part of surroundings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The reference treats “everywhere” as pervasive integration, not a requirement to implant computers in every chair, wall or person.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2019, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "Computers and communications in 2019: embedded computers", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N21", "locator": "23.2 million consumer/domestic service robots sold in 2019, +34%. Annual sales are not household penetration or a count of robot-owning homes.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N25", "locator": "ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; ECG deployment corroborated by December 2018 release O22. Not diagnosis of all diseases or autonomous treatment.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N52", "locator": "January 2010 retrospective on robots launched in 2002 and already commercially established in the 2000s; do not shift the threshold by one year just because the tally was announced in January.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "The strength of the embedded trend is an editorial assessment from multiple product classes, not a complete census of every household object. Body implantation is not silently claimed fulfilled.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "legacy_relations": [ { "legacy_id": "DEC-016", "relation": "CORRECT_SCOPE" }, { "legacy_id": "DEC-021", "relation": "QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY" }, { "legacy_id": "EXE-009", "relation": "SPLIT_DISTINCT_CAPABILITIES" } ], "subcategory": "Embedded computing", "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Computing is commonly embedded unobtrusively in everyday objects and systems, rather than confined to visibly separate PCs.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wearables, household robots and networked systems show that embedded computing had become a normal part of surroundings by 2019. The reference treats “everywhere” as pervasive integration, not a requirement to implant computers in every chair, wall or person.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wearables, household robots and networked systems show that embedded computing had become a normal part of surroundings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The reference treats “everywhere” as pervasive integration, not a requirement to implant computers in every chair, wall or person.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N21", "N25", "N52" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Every listed setting—walls, furniture, clothing, jewelry and bodies—has become a common computing location.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The product categories are unevenly realized, especially ordinary clothing and elective in-body computing. This full-list reading remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N21", "N25", "N52" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Computing is commonly embedded unobtrusively in everyday objects and systems, rather than confined to visibly separate PCs.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wearables, household robots and networked systems show that embedded computing had become a normal part of surroundings by 2019. The reference treats “everywhere” as pervasive integration, not a requirement to implant computers in every chair, wall or person.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wearables, household robots and networked systems show that embedded computing had become a normal part of surroundings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The reference treats “everywhere” as pervasive integration, not a requirement to implant computers in every chair, wall or person.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N21", "N25", "N52" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2019, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2019", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [ { "from_version": "0.2", "previous_assessment": { "review_state": "SOURCE_CONFIRMED", "verdict": "UNREVIEWED", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "at_deadline": "NOT_ASSESSED", "at_review": "NOT_ASSESSED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": false, "rationale": "The original sentence concerns embedded computing, not necessarily displays built into clothing. The intake merged that with the neighboring retinal-display claim. The two are now separated; outcome scoring is not completed.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "withheld_reason": "Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment." }, "change_reason": "Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict." } ], "is_new_in_v03": false, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K051", "slug": "k051-3d-integrated-circuits-become-common", "title": "3D integrated circuits become common", "prediction_paraphrase": "3D integrated circuits become common", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K051", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "P01 printed p.27, Computers #19; P02 2009 computing section", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Multilayer active circuitry moves from experiments into ordinary semiconductor products.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Multilayer active circuitry moves from experiments into ordinary semiconductor products.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009. Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N12" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Multilayer active circuitry moves from experiments into ordinary semiconductor products.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009. Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N12" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Include stacked dies and specialized sensor/MEMS structures as 3D chips.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The author’s retrospective cites pre-2009 commercial examples under this expansive definition. On-time success is plausible on that reading; independent prevalence evidence is thinner.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Definition includes stacked/specialized chip structures" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N12" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2015, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "EDITORIAL_ERA_BOUND", "label": "By the mid-2010s on the stated market reading; exact threshold year not established", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "bound_is_editorial": true }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009. Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2015, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N12", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "2015 is a conservative commercial-era bound, not a measured majority-market crossover. V-NAND is multilayer storage, not self-organizing molecular logic.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K052", "slug": "k052-1-000-pcs-reach-one-teraflop", "title": "$1,000 PCs reach one teraflop", "prediction_paraphrase": "$1,000 PCs reach one teraflop", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K052", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "P01 printed p.29, Computers #21; P02 opening 2009 paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "A roughly $1,000 PC can supply about 10^12 peak single-precision operations per second, counting its graphics processor.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A roughly $1,000 PC can supply about 10^12 peak single-precision operations per second, counting its graphics processor.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC. This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC.", "at_review_rationale": "This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N54", "N09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The entire PC sustains a teraflop on a specified general-purpose benchmark, rather than adding peak GPU arithmetic.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Peak board specifications do not establish the stricter 2009 system benchmark. Later consumer hardware has ample headroom, so the narrower practical-throughput reading is late.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Peak versus sustained general-purpose benchmark" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2020, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N54", "N09" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A roughly $1,000 PC can supply about 10^12 peak single-precision operations per second, counting its graphics processor.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC. This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC.", "at_review_rationale": "This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N54", "N09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC. This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.", "at_deadline_rationale": "AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC.", "at_review_rationale": "This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N54", "locator": "Italian reproduction of AMD June 25 release: HD 4850/4870 availability, FP32 peak and $199/$299 suggested prices. An editor-inferred sub-$1000 PC budget is not a measured whole-system benchmark.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N09", "locator": "RTX 3080 launch price $699 and roughly 30 FP32 shader TFLOPS. Tensor, ray-tracing and shader operations are not interchangeable.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Sub-$1,000 system feasibility is an explicit cost-budget inference, not a retrieved exact 2008 shopping receipt. Current benchmark reading has medium confidence; arithmetic precision is visible.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K053", "slug": "k053-idle-internet-pcs-form-virtual-supercomputers", "title": "Idle Internet PCs form virtual supercomputers", "prediction_paraphrase": "Idle Internet PCs form virtual supercomputers", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K053", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "P01 printed p.30, Computers #23", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Internet volunteers pool unused computation into virtual parallel systems reaching the stated approximately 20-petaflop scale.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Internet volunteers pool unused computation into virtual parallel systems reaching the stated approximately 20-petaflop scale.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target. Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2020, "at_deadline_rationale": "Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target.", "at_review_rationale": "Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N32" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Internet volunteers pool unused computation into virtual parallel systems reaching the stated approximately 20-petaflop scale.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target. Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2020, "at_deadline_rationale": "Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target.", "at_review_rationale": "Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N32" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Distributed volunteer computing is an established useful architecture without the brain-scale throughput threshold.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "This architectural direction was fulfilled before 2009.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "20-petaflop threshold" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N32" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2020, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2020; after 2009, no later than 2020", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target. Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target.", "at_review_rationale": "Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2020, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N32", "locator": "Project retrospectively reports 2.4 exaFLOPS peak in 2020; aggregate application throughput, not one shared-memory brain emulator or LINPACK score.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K054", "slug": "k054-interest-in-neural-methods-grows", "title": "Interest in neural methods grows", "prediction_paraphrase": "Interest in neural methods grows", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "TREND", "family_id": "K054", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "P01 printed p.31, Computers #24", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Interest and practical work on neural/evolutionary methods increase while conventional computation remains important.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Interest and practical work on neural/evolutionary methods increase while conventional computation remains important.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development. The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N60", "N35" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Interest and practical work on neural/evolutionary methods increase while conventional computation remains important.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development. The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N60", "N35" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Interest and practical work on neural/evolutionary methods increase while conventional computation remains important.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development. The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N60", "N35" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development. The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2006 deep-belief-net paper is a concrete pre-deadline advance consistent with renewed neural-method development.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2012 ImageNet result and subsequent AI systems decisively reinforce the broad direction; no majority-of-all-computation threshold is imposed on this weaker claim.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N60", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N35", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "One paper alone is not a complete bibliometric series. This qualitative directional assessment does not independently quantify the genetic-algorithm component or the share of all instructions executed.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K055", "slug": "k055-computer-cameras-recognize-their-owners", "title": "Computer cameras recognize their owners", "prediction_paraphrase": "Computer cameras recognize their owners", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K055", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2009 Computers and communications, camera paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Owner recognition by a built-in camera becomes a reliable routine consumer-computing function.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Owner recognition by a built-in camera becomes a reliable routine consumer-computing function.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009. Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2017, "at_deadline_rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N44" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Owner recognition by a built-in camera becomes a reliable routine consumer-computing function.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009. Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2017, "at_deadline_rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N44" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Owner recognition by a built-in camera becomes a reliable routine consumer-computing function.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009. Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2017, "at_deadline_rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "P01", "N44" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2017, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2017; after 2009, no later than 2017", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009. Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Webcams and face recognition existed, but reliable everyday authentication was not yet routine across ordinary personal devices in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Face ID on the shipping 2017 iPhone X is a clear practical implementation. This establishes late realization without claiming that it was the first face-recognition computer.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2017, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N44", "locator": "Announced September, retail availability November 3, 2017. Documented secure everyday owner recognition; not first-ever face recognition.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "A stronger ordinary-use and security threshold than a lab recognizer is stated explicitly. Initial webcam availability was not the missing part.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K056", "slug": "k056-students-carry-personal-sub-pound-tablets", "title": "Students carry personal sub-pound tablets", "prediction_paraphrase": "Students carry personal sub-pound tablets", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K056", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Education in 2009, opening paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Students typically have their own thin, readable tablet computer weighing less than one pound.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Students typically have their own thin, readable tablet computer weighing less than one pound.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2009 school-technology picture does not support typical one-device-per-child ownership, much less the specified tablet weight/form. NCES documents extensive school device provision by 2021–22, but that includes loaned laptops and heavier devices; the complete form/ownership claim remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2009 school-technology picture does not support typical one-device-per-child ownership, much less the specified tablet weight/form.", "at_review_rationale": "NCES documents extensive school device provision by 2021–22, but that includes loaned laptops and heavier devices; the complete form/ownership claim remains partial.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N45" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Students typically have their own thin, readable tablet computer weighing less than one pound.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2009 school-technology picture does not support typical one-device-per-child ownership, much less the specified tablet weight/form. NCES documents extensive school device provision by 2021–22, but that includes loaned laptops and heavier devices; the complete form/ownership claim remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2009 school-technology picture does not support typical one-device-per-child ownership, much less the specified tablet weight/form.", "at_review_rationale": "NCES documents extensive school device provision by 2021–22, but that includes loaned laptops and heavier devices; the complete form/ownership claim remains partial.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N45" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Students generally have access to a portable connected device for learning, regardless of ownership or weight.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "US schools’ broad device provision by 2021–22 fulfills this more functional access criterion.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Own device", "Tablet form and sub-pound weight", "Global scope limited to US school evidence" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2022, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N45" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2009 school-technology picture does not support typical one-device-per-child ownership, much less the specified tablet weight/form. NCES documents extensive school device provision by 2021–22, but that includes loaned laptops and heavier devices; the complete form/ownership claim remains partial.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2009 school-technology picture does not support typical one-device-per-child ownership, much less the specified tablet weight/form.", "at_review_rationale": "NCES documents extensive school device provision by 2021–22, but that includes loaned laptops and heavier devices; the complete form/ownership claim remains partial.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N33", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N45", "locator": "96% of public schools provided devices to students who needed them by 2021–22; 23% assigned take-home devices to all students before COVID. Not proof every student owned a sub-pound tablet.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "US school data are not a worldwide student census. “Students have devices when needed” and “every student owns a specified tablet” are kept separate.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K057", "slug": "k057-learning-materials-arrive-wirelessly", "title": "Learning materials arrive wirelessly", "prediction_paraphrase": "Learning materials arrive wirelessly", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K057", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Education in 2009, learning-materials bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Learners can ordinarily obtain educational content through wireless Internet access.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Learners can ordinarily obtain educational content through wireless Internet access.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route. This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route.", "at_review_rationale": "This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N43", "O09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Learners can ordinarily obtain educational content through wireless Internet access.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route. This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route.", "at_review_rationale": "This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N43", "O09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Learners can ordinarily obtain educational content through wireless Internet access.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route. This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route.", "at_review_rationale": "This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N43", "O09" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route. This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "at_deadline_rationale": "iTunes U distributed university material in 2007; contemporary wireless access and connected portable computers supplied the delivery route.", "at_review_rationale": "This is an availability/distribution claim, not a claim that every course or school has discarded physical books.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N43", "locator": "Free lectures and educational material from major universities; Wi-Fi-capable computers establish wireless access but not wireless prevalence at every school.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "O09", "locator": "US adult survey. Ever-used wireless access is not a majority-of-traffic measure and is not global coverage.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K058", "slug": "k058-teachers-shift-mainly-to-mentoring", "title": "Teachers shift mainly to mentoring", "prediction_paraphrase": "Teachers shift mainly to mentoring", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K058", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Education in 2009, final bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Software supplies enough instruction that teachers primarily handle motivation, well-being and socialization.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Software supplies enough instruction that teachers primarily handle motivation, well-being and socialization.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Classroom software was real, but the human teacher’s principal instructional role had not generally been displaced in 2009. Digital materials and AI help instruction, yet human teachers remain central knowledge instructors. The claimed role rebalancing remains partial, not merely awaiting a perfect survey.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Classroom software was real, but the human teacher’s principal instructional role had not generally been displaced in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Digital materials and AI help instruction, yet human teachers remain central knowledge instructors. The claimed role rebalancing remains partial, not merely awaiting a perfect survey.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N22", "N45" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Software supplies enough instruction that teachers primarily handle motivation, well-being and socialization.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Classroom software was real, but the human teacher’s principal instructional role had not generally been displaced in 2009. Digital materials and AI help instruction, yet human teachers remain central knowledge instructors. The claimed role rebalancing remains partial, not merely awaiting a perfect survey.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Classroom software was real, but the human teacher’s principal instructional role had not generally been displaced in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Digital materials and AI help instruction, yet human teachers remain central knowledge instructors. The claimed role rebalancing remains partial, not merely awaiting a perfect survey.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N22", "N45" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Software supports instruction and lets teachers spend some more attention on mentoring.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The direction of classroom augmentation was already present by 2009.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Primarily mentoring rather than instructing" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N22", "N45" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Classroom software was real, but the human teacher’s principal instructional role had not generally been displaced in 2009. Digital materials and AI help instruction, yet human teachers remain central knowledge instructors. The claimed role rebalancing remains partial, not merely awaiting a perfect survey.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Classroom software was real, but the human teacher’s principal instructional role had not generally been displaced in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Digital materials and AI help instruction, yet human teachers remain central knowledge instructors. The claimed role rebalancing remains partial, not merely awaiting a perfect survey.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N33", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N22", "locator": "Institutional context on continuing human teachers, shortages and AI assistance. Normative guidance is not a statistical census of all learning hours.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N45", "locator": "96% of public schools provided devices to students who needed them by 2021–22; 23% assigned take-home devices to all students before COVID. Not proof every student owned a sub-pound tablet.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Qualitative role judgment, not a measured global allocation of teacher minutes. UNESCO’s guidance is context, not by itself proof of adoption rates.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K059", "slug": "k059-at-least-half-of-transactions-occur-online", "title": "At least half of transactions occur online", "prediction_paraphrase": "At least half of transactions occur online", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K059", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Business in 2009, first bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Online purchase transactions dominate ordinary consumer commerce; retail sales value is the stated empirical proxy.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Online purchase transactions dominate ordinary consumer commerce; retail sales value is the stated empirical proxy.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation. The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N30", "N31" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Online purchase transactions dominate ordinary consumer commerce; retail sales value is the stated empirical proxy.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation. The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N30", "N31" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Many forms of commercial transactions are digitally processed, including offline-origin transactions.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Digital transaction handling is widespread, but this changes online purchasing into electronic processing and supplies no comparable majority-count denominator.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Online purchasing versus electronic processing", "Consumer retail versus all financial activity" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N30", "N31" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation. The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.", "at_deadline_rationale": "US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation.", "at_review_rationale": "The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N30", "locator": "2009 retail e-commerce share about 3.7% by value. US consumer retail proxy, not all worldwide transactions or number of payments.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N31", "locator": "Second quarter 2026 e-commerce share 17.1% of retail sales by value. Not B2B, securities trading, or a count of all transactions.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "This is an explicit proxy-based conditional miss, not a false claim to measure all global transactions. Value share differs from transaction count. Reference confidence is medium; display that limitation next to the verdict.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K060", "slug": "k060-work-groups-become-geographically-distributed", "title": "Work groups become geographically distributed", "prediction_paraphrase": "Work groups become geographically distributed", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "TREND", "family_id": "K060", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Business in 2009, geographically separated work-groups bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "A strong practical trend toward geographically distributed collaboration emerges.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "A strong practical trend toward geographically distributed collaboration emerges.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online. Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2007, "at_deadline_rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online.", "at_review_rationale": "Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N46" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "A strong practical trend toward geographically distributed collaboration emerges.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online. Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2007, "at_deadline_rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online.", "at_review_rationale": "Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N46" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "A strong practical trend toward geographically distributed collaboration emerges.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online. Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2007, "at_deadline_rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online.", "at_review_rationale": "Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N46" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2007, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2007", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online. Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Cisco’s 2007 WebEx acquisition described more than 2.2 million registered users collaborating online.", "at_review_rationale": "Teams’ 2019 usage further substantiates the direction. The forecast does not require most workers to work remotely or the end of offices.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2007, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N42", "locator": "WebEx had more than 2.2 million registered users; evidence of established distributed collaboration, not most employees working from home.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K061", "slug": "k061-household-robots-emerge-before-full-acceptance", "title": "Household robots emerge before full acceptance", "prediction_paraphrase": "Household robots emerge before full acceptance", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Robotics & transportation", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K061", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Business in 2009, household-robots bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Useful household robots are commercially established but not yet universally accepted.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Useful household robots are commercially established but not yet universally accepted.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category. The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category.", "at_review_rationale": "The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N52", "N21" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Useful household robots are commercially established but not yet universally accepted.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category. The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category.", "at_review_rationale": "The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N52", "N21" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Useful household robots are commercially established but not yet universally accepted.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category. The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "at_deadline_rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category.", "at_review_rationale": "The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N52", "N21" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2009, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2009", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category. The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Roomba launched in 2002 and iRobot reported five million home robots sold just after the 2009 year-end; this confirms a substantial pre-deadline product category.", "at_review_rationale": "The existence/emergence claim was met. Later broader adoption does not retroactively invalidate the accurate early-stage description.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2009, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N52", "locator": "January 2010 retrospective on robots launched in 2002 and already commercially established in the 2000s; do not shift the threshold by one year just because the tally was announced in January.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N21", "locator": "23.2 million consumer/domestic service robots sold in 2019, +34%. Annual sales are not household penetration or a count of robot-owning homes.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "The January 2010 tally is retrospective evidence, not a reason to treat the entire 2000s robot emergence as late. This is distinct from the stronger 2019 ubiquity forecast K080.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K062", "slug": "k062-telemedicine-includes-remote-tactile-examinations", "title": "Telemedicine includes remote tactile examinations", "prediction_paraphrase": "Telemedicine includes remote tactile examinations", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Biology & medicine", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K062", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Health care in 2009, telemedicine bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Remote examinations using sight, sound and tactile sensing are widely used.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Remote examinations using sight, sound and tactile sensing are widely used.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Audio/video telemedicine and remote-device demonstrations did not make the full visual-auditory-haptic package widespread in 2009. The 37% US adult telemedicine-use figure for 2021 establishes ordinary audio/video care, but not widespread remotely conveyed tactile examination.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Audio/video telemedicine and remote-device demonstrations did not make the full visual-auditory-haptic package widespread in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "The 37% US adult telemedicine-use figure for 2021 establishes ordinary audio/video care, but not widespread remotely conveyed tactile examination.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N19", "N41" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Remote examinations using sight, sound and tactile sensing are widely used.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Audio/video telemedicine and remote-device demonstrations did not make the full visual-auditory-haptic package widespread in 2009. The 37% US adult telemedicine-use figure for 2021 establishes ordinary audio/video care, but not widespread remotely conveyed tactile examination.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Audio/video telemedicine and remote-device demonstrations did not make the full visual-auditory-haptic package widespread in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "The 37% US adult telemedicine-use figure for 2021 establishes ordinary audio/video care, but not widespread remotely conveyed tactile examination.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N19", "N41" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Visual/audio telemedicine is widely used, with tactile capability an optional extension.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Audio/video use reached an unmistakably common level by 2021.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Widespread haptic examination" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2021, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N19", "N41" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Audio/video telemedicine and remote-device demonstrations did not make the full visual-auditory-haptic package widespread in 2009. The 37% US adult telemedicine-use figure for 2021 establishes ordinary audio/video care, but not widespread remotely conveyed tactile examination.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Audio/video telemedicine and remote-device demonstrations did not make the full visual-auditory-haptic package widespread in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "The 37% US adult telemedicine-use figure for 2021 establishes ordinary audio/video care, but not widespread remotely conveyed tactile examination.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N19", "locator": "37% of US adults used phone or video telemedicine in 2021. Does not establish widespread tactile remote examination.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N41", "locator": "Describes 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake and networked force feedback; supports emerging remote touch, not full-body realism.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Does not infer telemedicine efficacy or recommend care. The input-modality difference is material and remains visible.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K063", "slug": "k063-pattern-recognition-becomes-routine-in-medical-imaging", "title": "Pattern recognition becomes routine in medical imaging", "prediction_paraphrase": "Pattern recognition becomes routine in medical imaging", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Biology & medicine", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K063", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Health care in 2009, pattern-recognition bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Computer pattern recognition is used routinely in important diagnostic imaging workflows.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Computer pattern recognition is used routinely in important diagnostic imaging workflows.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow. This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2008, "at_deadline_rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow.", "at_review_rationale": "This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N18" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Computer pattern recognition is used routinely in important diagnostic imaging workflows.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow. This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2008, "at_deadline_rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow.", "at_review_rationale": "This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N18" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Computer pattern recognition is used routinely in important diagnostic imaging workflows.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow. This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2008, "at_deadline_rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow.", "at_review_rationale": "This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N18" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2008, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2008", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow. This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008, a concrete routine clinical workflow.", "at_review_rationale": "This fulfills routine use even though CAD does not always improve outcomes. It does not require autonomous diagnosis in every specialty.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2008, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N18", "locator": "Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008. Routine use is established, not improved accuracy or autonomous diagnosis.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Medicare screening mammography is a documented substantial use case, not evidence all imaging was automated or that CAD was superior to clinicians.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K064", "slug": "k064-patient-histories-become-lifelong-digital-records", "title": "Patient histories become lifelong digital records", "prediction_paraphrase": "Patient histories become lifelong digital records", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Biology & medicine", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K064", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Health care in 2009, lifetime-records bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Longitudinal patient histories are ordinarily kept digitally; “lifetime” means accumulating records over a patient’s life, not retroactive digitization of every scrap.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Longitudinal patient histories are ordinarily kept digitally; “lifetime” means accumulating records over a patient’s life, not retroactive digitization of every scrap.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized. By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2014, "at_deadline_rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized.", "at_review_rationale": "By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N17" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Longitudinal patient histories are ordinarily kept digitally; “lifetime” means accumulating records over a patient’s life, not retroactive digitization of every scrap.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized. By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "SAME_AS_REFERENCE", "documented_by_year": 2014, "at_deadline_rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized.", "at_review_rationale": "By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N17" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Longitudinal patient histories are ordinarily kept digitally; “lifetime” means accumulating records over a patient’s life, not retroactive digitization of every scrap.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized. By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2014, "at_deadline_rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized.", "at_review_rationale": "By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N17" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2014, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2014; after 2009, no later than 2014", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized. By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "at_deadline_rationale": "EHR adoption was still low in the 2008–2009 US baseline, so ordinary digital longitudinal records were only partly realized.", "at_review_rationale": "By 2014 most US hospitals and more than half of physicians had adopted EHRs; subsequent adoption increased. This supports late longitudinal-database fulfillment.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2014, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N17", "locator": "US series: 2008 hospitals 9%, physicians 17%; 2014 76% and 51%; 2022 99% and 84%. Definitions evolve; adoption does not prove complete interoperable lifetime records.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "US adoption is the explicit evaluation population. Reference does not demand universality, but it also does not claim all historic records are complete or interoperable.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "non_scoring_comparators": [ { "criterion": "Each person has a complete interoperable cradle-to-grave record spanning all providers.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "EHR adoption does not establish complete lifetime coverage or interoperability. The stronger literal completeness reading remains partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N17" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "comparator_warning": "Stronger than the located wording; not an obligation of the original forecast and excluded from accuracy calculations.", "eligible_for_author_accuracy": false } ], "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K065", "slug": "k065-screens-become-the-preferred-visual-art-medium", "title": "Screens become the preferred visual-art medium", "prediction_paraphrase": "Screens become the preferred visual-art medium", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K065", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Arts in 2009, opening bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Computer screens become the prevailing medium for visual-art creation/presentation, with intelligent software collaboration.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Computer screens become the prevailing medium for visual-art creation/presentation, with intelligent software collaboration.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Digital art tools were established, but the broad claim of preference across visual art was stronger than the evidence of availability. AI art receives serious recognition, yet painting, sculpture, print and physical display remain important; there is no defensible universal medium-of-choice ranking here.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Digital art tools were established, but the broad claim of preference across visual art was stronger than the evidence of availability.", "at_review_rationale": "AI art receives serious recognition, yet painting, sculpture, print and physical display remain important; there is no defensible universal medium-of-choice ranking here.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N27", "P01" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Computer screens become the prevailing medium for visual-art creation/presentation, with intelligent software collaboration.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Digital art tools were established, but the broad claim of preference across visual art was stronger than the evidence of availability. AI art receives serious recognition, yet painting, sculpture, print and physical display remain important; there is no defensible universal medium-of-choice ranking here.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Digital art tools were established, but the broad claim of preference across visual art was stronger than the evidence of availability.", "at_review_rationale": "AI art receives serious recognition, yet painting, sculpture, print and physical display remain important; there is no defensible universal medium-of-choice ranking here.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N27", "P01" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Screens and intelligent tools become a normal major medium for visual creativity.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Digital creation and machine-assisted art clearly meet the less exclusive normal-medium reading.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Preferred medium across all visual art" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2009, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N27", "P01" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Digital art tools were established, but the broad claim of preference across visual art was stronger than the evidence of availability. AI art receives serious recognition, yet painting, sculpture, print and physical display remain important; there is no defensible universal medium-of-choice ranking here.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Digital art tools were established, but the broad claim of preference across visual art was stronger than the evidence of availability.", "at_review_rationale": "AI art receives serious recognition, yet painting, sculpture, print and physical display remain important; there is no defensible universal medium-of-choice ranking here.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N27", "locator": "Obvious/GAN portrait sold October 2018 for $432,500. Supports serious institutional attention, not majority adoption by artists.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "P01", "locator": "Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "This is a mixed adoption judgment, not a claim that physical art’s continued existence alone defeats a majority claim. The relevant market-share denominator is intrinsically diffuse.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K066", "slug": "k066-nonmusicians-compose-music-with-software", "title": "Nonmusicians compose music with software", "prediction_paraphrase": "Nonmusicians compose music with software", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K066", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Arts in 2009, nonmusicians bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Ordinary people without instrumental training can construct music with software.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Ordinary people without instrumental training can construct music with software.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship. The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship.", "at_review_rationale": "The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N26" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Ordinary people without instrumental training can construct music with software.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship. The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship.", "at_review_rationale": "The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N26" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Ordinary people without instrumental training can construct music with software.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship. The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2004, "at_deadline_rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship.", "at_review_rationale": "The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N26" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2004, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2004", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship. The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "at_deadline_rationale": "GarageBand’s 2004 loop/instrument tools were explicitly designed to make music creation accessible without conventional musicianship.", "at_review_rationale": "The functional prediction was met; brain-wave control in the passage is an example, not a condition imposed on all composition.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2004, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N26", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K067", "slug": "k067-remote-touch-technology-begins-to-emerge", "title": "Remote touch technology begins to emerge", "prediction_paraphrase": "Remote touch technology begins to emerge", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K067", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Personal relationships in 2009, first clause of haptics/chat bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Networked haptics let people touch or manipulate distant objects/other users in limited practical demonstrations.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Networked haptics let people touch or manipulate distant objects/other users in limited practical demonstrations.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009. Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2002, "at_deadline_rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N41", "N28" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Networked haptics let people touch or manipulate distant objects/other users in limited practical demonstrations.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009. Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2002, "at_deadline_rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N41", "N28" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Networked haptics let people touch or manipulate distant objects/other users in limited practical demonstrations.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009. Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2002, "at_deadline_rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N41", "N28" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2002, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2002", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009. Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The scholarly account of the 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake establishes the emerging capability well before 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Further haptics progress preserves this modest success. The stronger full-body tactile claim is separately scored K031.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2002, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N41", "locator": "Describes 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake and networked force feedback; supports emerging remote touch, not full-body realism.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N28", "locator": "Local finger-scale multimodal haptics; not whole-body, all-sensation realism. Preprint status retained.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K068", "slug": "k068-photorealistic-virtual-rooms-replace-text-chat", "title": "Photorealistic virtual rooms replace text chat", "prediction_paraphrase": "Photorealistic virtual rooms replace text chat", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K068", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Personal relationships in 2009, second clause of haptics/chat bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Full-visual-realism virtual environments displace ordinary text chat rooms.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Full-visual-realism virtual environments displace ordinary text chat rooms.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early virtual worlds did not provide full realism or replace mainstream text conversation in 2009. Widely used text-centered collaboration and messaging persist alongside virtual environments. Coexistence is not replacement.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early virtual worlds did not provide full realism or replace mainstream text conversation in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Widely used text-centered collaboration and messaging persist alongside virtual environments. Coexistence is not replacement.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N46", "N05" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Full-visual-realism virtual environments displace ordinary text chat rooms.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Early virtual worlds did not provide full realism or replace mainstream text conversation in 2009. Widely used text-centered collaboration and messaging persist alongside virtual environments. Coexistence is not replacement.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Early virtual worlds did not provide full realism or replace mainstream text conversation in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Widely used text-centered collaboration and messaging persist alongside virtual environments. Coexistence is not replacement.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N46", "N05" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Social virtual environments become a usable additional way to meet online.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Consumer VR and social virtual environments establish the alternate medium without the replacement or photorealism condition.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Replacement of text chat", "Full visual realism" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N46", "N05" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Early virtual worlds did not provide full realism or replace mainstream text conversation in 2009. Widely used text-centered collaboration and messaging persist alongside virtual environments. Coexistence is not replacement.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Early virtual worlds did not provide full realism or replace mainstream text conversation in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Widely used text-centered collaboration and messaging persist alongside virtual environments. Coexistence is not replacement.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N05", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K069", "slug": "k069-wireless-phones-routinely-carry-live-video", "title": "Wireless phones routinely carry live video", "prediction_paraphrase": "Wireless phones routinely carry live video", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Networks & communications", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K069", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2009", "deadline_year": 2009, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2009, "year_end": 2009, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2009 Computers and communications, telephone-communication paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Wireless personal calls routinely include usable live video, not merely an experimental video phone.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Wireless personal calls routinely include usable live video, not merely an experimental video phone.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009. Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N44", "N46" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Wireless personal calls routinely include usable live video, not merely an experimental video phone.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009. Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N44", "N46" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Wireless personal calls routinely include usable live video, not merely an experimental video phone.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009. Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N44", "N46" ], "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2009, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2019, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2019; after 2009, no later than 2019", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "LATE", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009. Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Wireless voice and webcam meetings were real, but ordinary handset video calling was not yet routine in 2009.", "at_review_rationale": "Integrated phone cameras, mobile video services and established consumer communication platforms make the function ordinary by the 2010s.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2019, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N42", "locator": "WebEx had more than 2.2 million registered users; evidence of established distributed collaboration, not most employees working from home.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N44", "locator": "Announced September, retail availability November 3, 2017. Documented secure everyday owner recognition; not first-ever face recognition.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "2019 is a conservative documented-by date for routine use, not the invention of video calling. The claim is capability/adoption, not that every call transmits video.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K070", "slug": "k070-electronic-storage-fully-replaces-rotating-media", "title": "Electronic storage fully replaces rotating media", "prediction_paraphrase": "Electronic storage fully replaces rotating media", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K070", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 computing, rotating-memories paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Rotating magnetic and optical computer storage is fully replaced by electronic storage.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Rotating magnetic and optical computer storage is fully replaced by electronic storage.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Hard drives remained substantial in 2019; solid-state adoption did not amount to full replacement. Seagate’s 2026 32 TB drive rollout provides a direct current counterexample. “Fully replaced” is genuinely stronger than “widely available.”", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Hard drives remained substantial in 2019; solid-state adoption did not amount to full replacement.", "at_review_rationale": "Seagate’s 2026 32 TB drive rollout provides a direct current counterexample. “Fully replaced” is genuinely stronger than “widely available.”", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N14" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Rotating magnetic and optical computer storage is fully replaced by electronic storage.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Hard drives remained substantial in 2019; solid-state adoption did not amount to full replacement. Seagate’s 2026 32 TB drive rollout provides a direct current counterexample. “Fully replaced” is genuinely stronger than “widely available.”", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Hard drives remained substantial in 2019; solid-state adoption did not amount to full replacement.", "at_review_rationale": "Seagate’s 2026 32 TB drive rollout provides a direct current counterexample. “Fully replaced” is genuinely stronger than “widely available.”", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N14" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Solid-state storage dominates pocket devices and becomes a major PC storage format.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The broader direction is correct, but drops the explicit end of rotating storage.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Full replacement across computing" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N14" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Hard drives remained substantial in 2019; solid-state adoption did not amount to full replacement. Seagate’s 2026 32 TB drive rollout provides a direct current counterexample. “Fully replaced” is genuinely stronger than “widely available.”", "at_deadline_rationale": "Hard drives remained substantial in 2019; solid-state adoption did not amount to full replacement.", "at_review_rationale": "Seagate’s 2026 32 TB drive rollout provides a direct current counterexample. “Fully replaced” is genuinely stronger than “widely available.”", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N14", "locator": "Current counterexample to complete displacement of rotating magnetic storage; shipping announcement for January 14, 2026.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K071", "slug": "k071-carbon-nanotube-circuitry-becomes-prevalent", "title": "Carbon-nanotube circuitry becomes prevalent", "prediction_paraphrase": "Carbon-nanotube circuitry becomes prevalent", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K071", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 computing, same paragraph as rotating memories", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Three-dimensional carbon-nanotube lattices are a prevalent computing-circuit technology.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Three-dimensional carbon-nanotube lattices are a prevalent computing-circuit technology.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture. Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture.", "at_review_rationale": "Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N13", "N10" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Three-dimensional carbon-nanotube lattices are a prevalent computing-circuit technology.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture. Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture.", "at_review_rationale": "Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N13", "N10" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Three-dimensional semiconductor structures become an important commercial technology regardless of material.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "3D NAND realizes that relaxed direction, but silicon multilayer storage is not nanotube-lattice computation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Carbon-nanotube material and lattice architecture" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N13", "N10" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture. Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.", "at_deadline_rationale": "MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture.", "at_review_rationale": "Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N13", "locator": "Research prototype with more than 14,000 carbon-nanotube transistors, not commercial prevalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N10", "locator": "10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K072", "slug": "k072-neural-and-genetic-methods-consume-most-computation", "title": "Neural and genetic methods consume most computation", "prediction_paraphrase": "Neural and genetic methods consume most computation", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K072", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 computing, majority-of-computations paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Neural networks and genetic algorithms account for more than half of computing work across the intended general computing population.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Neural networks and genetic algorithms account for more than half of computing work across the intended general computing population.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Important neural successes by 2019 did not establish majority use across all computation. AI compute has become a major workload, but a global majority depends on the population and unit of work. The directional expansion is substantial; the literal aggregate threshold is not established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Important neural successes by 2019 did not establish majority use across all computation.", "at_review_rationale": "AI compute has become a major workload, but a global majority depends on the population and unit of work. The directional expansion is substantial; the literal aggregate threshold is not established.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N35", "N11", "N55" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Neural networks and genetic algorithms account for more than half of computing work across the intended general computing population.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Important neural successes by 2019 did not establish majority use across all computation. AI compute has become a major workload, but a global majority depends on the population and unit of work. The directional expansion is substantial; the literal aggregate threshold is not established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Important neural successes by 2019 did not establish majority use across all computation.", "at_review_rationale": "AI compute has become a major workload, but a global majority depends on the population and unit of work. The directional expansion is substantial; the literal aggregate threshold is not established.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N35", "N11", "N55" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Massively parallel neural computation becomes central to frontier AI and a major driver of hardware.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The narrower AI-industry population clearly satisfies central importance by 2019.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "All computing narrowed to frontier AI", "Majority threshold narrowed to central importance" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N35", "N11", "N55" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Important neural successes by 2019 did not establish majority use across all computation. AI compute has become a major workload, but a global majority depends on the population and unit of work. The directional expansion is substantial; the literal aggregate threshold is not established.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Important neural successes by 2019 did not establish majority use across all computation.", "at_review_rationale": "AI compute has become a major workload, but a global majority depends on the population and unit of work. The directional expansion is substantial; the literal aggregate threshold is not established.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N35", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N11", "locator": "RTX 5080 launch MSRP $999, 1,801 AI TOPS. Launch prices are not represented as October 2026 retail quotes; a GPU also is not a whole PC.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N55", "locator": "Protocol and reference implementations; not evidence most real-world transactions use simulated people.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "No invented count of all global operations. Reference PARTIAL reflects genuine importance plus an unestablished majority, not confidence that the majority is mathematically impossible.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K073", "slug": "k073-brain-scanning-clarifies-specialized-neural-regions", "title": "Brain scanning clarifies specialized neural regions", "prediction_paraphrase": "Brain scanning clarifies specialized neural regions", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Neuroscience & human augmentation", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "RESEARCH_MILESTONE", "family_id": "K073", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 computing, reverse-engineering paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Brain scanning makes significant progress in identifying specialized regions and computational organization.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Brain scanning makes significant progress in identifying specialized regions and computational organization.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2016 human cortical map identified 180 areas per hemisphere, a concrete regional reverse-engineering advance. Whole-animal connectomes and cell atlases add substantial progress. This modest forecast does not require a complete human emulation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2016, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2016 human cortical map identified 180 areas per hemisphere, a concrete regional reverse-engineering advance.", "at_review_rationale": "Whole-animal connectomes and cell atlases add substantial progress. This modest forecast does not require a complete human emulation.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N48", "N15", "N16" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Scanning yields understood algorithms for the major regions and those algorithms demonstrably drive machine neural-network design.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Regional mapping is strong; the complete algorithm-understanding and causal transfer-to-AI chain is less established.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N48", "N15", "N16" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Brain scanning makes significant progress in identifying specialized regions and computational organization.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2016 human cortical map identified 180 areas per hemisphere, a concrete regional reverse-engineering advance. Whole-animal connectomes and cell atlases add substantial progress. This modest forecast does not require a complete human emulation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2016, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2016 human cortical map identified 180 areas per hemisphere, a concrete regional reverse-engineering advance.", "at_review_rationale": "Whole-animal connectomes and cell atlases add substantial progress. This modest forecast does not require a complete human emulation.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N48", "N15", "N16" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2016, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2016", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2016 human cortical map identified 180 areas per hemisphere, a concrete regional reverse-engineering advance. Whole-animal connectomes and cell atlases add substantial progress. This modest forecast does not require a complete human emulation.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2016 human cortical map identified 180 areas per hemisphere, a concrete regional reverse-engineering advance.", "at_review_rationale": "Whole-animal connectomes and cell atlases add substantial progress. This modest forecast does not require a complete human emulation.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2016, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N48", "locator": "180 cortical areas per hemisphere; direct evidence of improved regional brain understanding, not whole-brain functional reconstruction.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N15", "locator": "Mouse cell atlas, not a functional emulation of the entire human brain.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N16", "locator": "Adult fruit-fly connectome. Species, wiring map and functional cognitive model must not be conflated.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K074", "slug": "k074-tiny-diffraction-cameras-replace-most-lenses", "title": "Tiny diffraction cameras replace most lenses", "prediction_paraphrase": "Tiny diffraction cameras replace most lenses", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Computing hardware", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K074", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 computing, quantum-based diffraction imaging paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "The specified pinhead-scale lensless/diffraction technology replaces most conventional camera lenses.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "The specified pinhead-scale lensless/diffraction technology replaces most conventional camera lenses.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Ordinary smartphone cameras still relied on lenses in 2019; tiny camera sensors did not fulfill the optical substitution. Computational imaging is widespread, but not equivalent to majority replacement of optics with the specified diffraction architecture.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary smartphone cameras still relied on lenses in 2019; tiny camera sensors did not fulfill the optical substitution.", "at_review_rationale": "Computational imaging is widespread, but not equivalent to majority replacement of optics with the specified diffraction architecture.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N44", "N65" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The specified pinhead-scale lensless/diffraction technology replaces most conventional camera lenses.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Ordinary smartphone cameras still relied on lenses in 2019; tiny camera sensors did not fulfill the optical substitution. Computational imaging is widespread, but not equivalent to majority replacement of optics with the specified diffraction architecture.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary smartphone cameras still relied on lenses in 2019; tiny camera sensors did not fulfill the optical substitution.", "at_review_rationale": "Computational imaging is widespread, but not equivalent to majority replacement of optics with the specified diffraction architecture.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N44", "N65" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Small computational cameras become pervasive.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Phones establish miniaturized computational imaging, while retaining lenses.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Lens replacement", "Specified quantum/diffraction mechanism" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N44", "N65" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Ordinary smartphone cameras still relied on lenses in 2019; tiny camera sensors did not fulfill the optical substitution. Computational imaging is widespread, but not equivalent to majority replacement of optics with the specified diffraction architecture.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary smartphone cameras still relied on lenses in 2019; tiny camera sensors did not fulfill the optical substitution.", "at_review_rationale": "Computational imaging is widespread, but not equivalent to majority replacement of optics with the specified diffraction architecture.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N44", "locator": "Announced September, retail availability November 3, 2017. Documented secure everyday owner recognition; not first-ever face recognition.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N65", "locator": "Current mainstream digital imaging and interchangeable optical lenses. Supports the present digital-camera ecosystem and persistence of lenses, not an exact historic film crossover year.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Current nonfulfillment is a technology-market judgment supported by mainstream device architecture, not a quantitative global lens census. Laboratory lensless devices do not prove replacement.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K075", "slug": "k075-calls-provide-convincing-three-dimensional-presence", "title": "Calls provide convincing three-dimensional presence", "prediction_paraphrase": "Calls provide convincing three-dimensional presence", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Interfaces & virtual worlds", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K075", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 communications, holography/phone-call paragraph", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Routine calls offer three-dimensional physical-presence realism using the specified direct-eye or holographic display systems.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Routine calls offer three-dimensional physical-presence realism using the specified direct-eye or holographic display systems.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Ordinary 2019 video calls did not deliver the asserted 3D physical-presence experience and acuity. Google Beam/HP Dimension demonstrates a serious enterprise 3D telepresence direction, but not routine consumer calls or proven above-human acuity.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary 2019 video calls did not deliver the asserted 3D physical-presence experience and acuity.", "at_review_rationale": "Google Beam/HP Dimension demonstrates a serious enterprise 3D telepresence direction, but not routine consumer calls or proven above-human acuity.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N34", "N46" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Routine calls offer three-dimensional physical-presence realism using the specified direct-eye or holographic display systems.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Ordinary 2019 video calls did not deliver the asserted 3D physical-presence experience and acuity. Google Beam/HP Dimension demonstrates a serious enterprise 3D telepresence direction, but not routine consumer calls or proven above-human acuity.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary 2019 video calls did not deliver the asserted 3D physical-presence experience and acuity.", "at_review_rationale": "Google Beam/HP Dimension demonstrates a serious enterprise 3D telepresence direction, but not routine consumer calls or proven above-human acuity.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N34", "N46" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Convincing 3D telepresence exists in practical specialist systems, without routine adoption or retinal implementation.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Beam’s light-field demonstration/commercial platform realizes the central presence function by 2025. This is a capability assessment, not proof of installed scale.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Routine use", "Direct-eye implementation", "Above-human acuity" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N34", "N46" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Ordinary 2019 video calls did not deliver the asserted 3D physical-presence experience and acuity. Google Beam/HP Dimension demonstrates a serious enterprise 3D telepresence direction, but not routine consumer calls or proven above-human acuity.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary 2019 video calls did not deliver the asserted 3D physical-presence experience and acuity.", "at_review_rationale": "Google Beam/HP Dimension demonstrates a serious enterprise 3D telepresence direction, but not routine consumer calls or proven above-human acuity.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N34", "locator": "Enterprise light-field telepresence, six-camera capture. Launch/availability plan supports capability and commercialization, not routine calls or demonstrated above-human acuity.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "A product announcement is evidence of a demonstrated capability and commercial offering, not of widespread deployment. The broader label is explicitly limited to practical specialist availability.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K076", "slug": "k076-most-meetings-need-no-physical-co-location", "title": "Most meetings need no physical co-location", "prediction_paraphrase": "Most meetings need no physical co-location", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K076", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 communications, majority-of-meetings sentence", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Most ordinary information-sharing meetings can be conducted without co-location; the wording is about need, not actual venue share.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Most ordinary information-sharing meetings can be conducted without co-location; the wording is about need, not actual venue share.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019. The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N46" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Most ordinary information-sharing meetings can be conducted without co-location; the wording is about need, not actual venue share.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019. The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N46" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Most ordinary information-sharing meetings can be conducted without co-location; the wording is about need, not actual venue share.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019. The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "at_deadline_rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N42", "N46" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2019, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2019", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019. The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Large-scale video and collaboration platforms already supported ordinary distributed meetings by 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The capability remains established. It would misread this claim to require proof that most meetings actually happened online.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2019, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N42", "locator": "WebEx had more than 2.2 million registered users; evidence of established distributed collaboration, not most employees working from home.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Excludes hands-on physical work for which co-location may be intrinsic. The word “need” is not silently changed into a survey claim about where all meetings occurred.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K077", "slug": "k077-practical-speech-translation-covers-common-language-pairs", "title": "Practical speech translation covers common language pairs", "prediction_paraphrase": "Practical speech translation covers common language pairs", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "AI & software", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "CAPABILITY", "family_id": "K077", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 2019 communications, high-quality speech-translation sentence", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Ordinary users can access useful two-way speech translation for common languages in everyday contexts.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Ordinary users can access useful two-way speech translation for common languages in everyday contexts.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Google’s earlier conversation/speech products support this ordinary functional reading well before 2019. Practical translation is a success; errors in idioms, accents or specialist contexts do not justify demanding universal perfect translation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Google’s earlier conversation/speech products support this ordinary functional reading well before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Practical translation is a success; errors in idioms, accents or specialist contexts do not justify demanding universal perfect translation.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O12", "N20" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "High-quality human-equivalent interpretation is reliable across nearly all ordinary conversational contexts for most common language pairs.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Availability and useful short exchanges do not establish professional-interpreter reliability in every relevant context.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "O12", "N20" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Ordinary users can access useful two-way speech translation for common languages in everyday contexts.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Google’s earlier conversation/speech products support this ordinary functional reading well before 2019. Practical translation is a success; errors in idioms, accents or specialist contexts do not justify demanding universal perfect translation.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2015, "at_deadline_rationale": "Google’s earlier conversation/speech products support this ordinary functional reading well before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Practical translation is a success; errors in idioms, accents or specialist contexts do not justify demanding universal perfect translation.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "O12", "N20" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2015, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2015", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Google’s earlier conversation/speech products support this ordinary functional reading well before 2019. Practical translation is a success; errors in idioms, accents or specialist contexts do not justify demanding universal perfect translation.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Google’s earlier conversation/speech products support this ordinary functional reading well before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Practical translation is a success; errors in idioms, accents or specialist contexts do not justify demanding universal perfect translation.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2015, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "O12", "locator": "Speech conversation mode expanded to 14 languages; still described as alpha. Not equivalent to translation quality or universal adoption.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N20", "locator": "Conversation and speech translation documented in product updates. Text-language counts must not be presented as speech-language counts; 44-language wearable speech support is separately identified.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "No clinical/legal interpretation recommendation. “High quality” is explicitly operationalized as useful everyday communication, not flawless or expert-grade output.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K078", "slug": "k078-ai-tutors-deliver-most-learning", "title": "AI tutors deliver most learning", "prediction_paraphrase": "AI tutors deliver most learning", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K078", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Education in 2019, first bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "More than half of learning is supplied by intelligent simulated teachers, rather than human instruction or ordinary learning resources.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "More than half of learning is supplied by intelligent simulated teachers, rather than human instruction or ordinary learning resources.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers. AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers.", "at_review_rationale": "AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N45", "N22", "N46" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "More than half of learning is supplied by intelligent simulated teachers, rather than human instruction or ordinary learning resources.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers. AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers.", "at_review_rationale": "AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N45", "N22", "N46" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Digital software becomes a major aid to learning, including online classes and AI assistance.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Digital learning access is widespread, while this broader criterion relaxes both intelligence and majority requirements.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Most learning", "Simulated intelligent teacher" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2022, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N33", "N45", "N22", "N46" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers. AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.", "at_deadline_rationale": "2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers.", "at_review_rationale": "AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N33", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N45", "locator": "96% of public schools provided devices to students who needed them by 2021–22; 23% assigned take-home devices to all students before COVID. Not proof every student owned a sub-pound tablet.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N22", "locator": "Institutional context on continuing human teachers, shortages and AI assistance. Normative guidance is not a statistical census of all learning hours.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N46", "locator": "Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "There is no global all-learning-hours census. The miss is a reasoned medium-confidence assessment of the central majority claim, not an invented precise share.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K079", "slug": "k079-workers-spend-most-time-learning", "title": "Workers spend most time learning", "prediction_paraphrase": "Workers spend most time learning", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K079", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Education in 2019, adult-workers bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Typical adult workers spend a majority of their time acquiring new knowledge/skills as a primary activity, not merely incidental learning while doing any job.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Typical adult workers spend a majority of their time acquiring new knowledge/skills as a primary activity, not merely incidental learning while doing any job.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "BLS time-use evidence does not resemble a majority of time devoted to study/retraining. Continuing education remains important, but calling all productive work “learning” would make the forecast untestable. On an ordinary primary-activity reading it remains a miss.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "BLS time-use evidence does not resemble a majority of time devoted to study/retraining.", "at_review_rationale": "Continuing education remains important, but calling all productive work “learning” would make the forecast untestable. On an ordinary primary-activity reading it remains a miss.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N23" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Typical adult workers spend a majority of their time acquiring new knowledge/skills as a primary activity, not merely incidental learning while doing any job.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "BLS time-use evidence does not resemble a majority of time devoted to study/retraining. Continuing education remains important, but calling all productive work “learning” would make the forecast untestable. On an ordinary primary-activity reading it remains a miss.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "BLS time-use evidence does not resemble a majority of time devoted to study/retraining.", "at_review_rationale": "Continuing education remains important, but calling all productive work “learning” would make the forecast untestable. On an ordinary primary-activity reading it remains a miss.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N23" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Knowledge acquisition and recurrent retraining become important parts of working life.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "This qualitative lifelong-learning direction is plausible and widely consistent with digital work, but lacks a global majority-time claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Majority time", "Learning as primary activity" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N23" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "BLS time-use evidence does not resemble a majority of time devoted to study/retraining. Continuing education remains important, but calling all productive work “learning” would make the forecast untestable. On an ordinary primary-activity reading it remains a miss.", "at_deadline_rationale": "BLS time-use evidence does not resemble a majority of time devoted to study/retraining.", "at_review_rationale": "Continuing education remains important, but calling all productive work “learning” would make the forecast untestable. On an ordinary primary-activity reading it remains a miss.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N23", "locator": "Time-use study separates work and educational activity. Does not fully count informal on-the-job learning, which is an interpretation limitation.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Formal time-use measures undercount informal workplace learning. That affects confidence, not the distinction between an activity-majority claim and an all-work-is-learning tautology.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K080", "slug": "k080-reliable-household-robots-become-ubiquitous", "title": "Reliable household robots become ubiquitous", "prediction_paraphrase": "Reliable household robots become ubiquitous", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Robotics & transportation", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K080", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Business in 2019, household-robots bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Cleaning/chores robots are near-ubiquitous household equipment, not merely a successful appliance category.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Cleaning/chores robots are near-ubiquitous household equipment, not merely a successful appliance category.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence. Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence.", "at_review_rationale": "Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N21", "N52" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Cleaning/chores robots are near-ubiquitous household equipment, not merely a successful appliance category.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence. Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence.", "at_review_rationale": "Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N21", "N52" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Reliable household cleaning robots are a commonplace commercial appliance category.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Substantial sales and established manufacturers support this normal market-language reading of widespread, without literal near-universality.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Near-ubiquitous household penetration", "Broad chores range" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2019, "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N21", "N52" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence. Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.", "at_deadline_rationale": "IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence.", "at_review_rationale": "Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N21", "locator": "23.2 million consumer/domestic service robots sold in 2019, +34%. Annual sales are not household penetration or a count of robot-owning homes.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N52", "locator": "January 2010 retrospective on robots launched in 2002 and already commercially established in the 2000s; do not shift the threshold by one year just because the tally was announced in January.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "This forecast actually uses “ubiquitous,” unlike K061’s much weaker emergence claim. The alternative commonplace reading is visible because ordinary usage of ubiquitous can be rhetorical.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K081", "slug": "k081-transportation-accidents-become-very-rare", "title": "Transportation accidents become very rare", "prediction_paraphrase": "Transportation accidents become very rare", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Robotics & transportation", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "SOCIAL_OUTCOME", "family_id": "K081", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Business in 2019, final sentence of smart-roads bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Automation reduces transportation accidents to a very low societal burden, not just a modest statistical improvement.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Automation reduces transportation accidents to a very low societal burden, not just a modest statistical improvement.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Transport injury and death remained a major global burden around the target date. WHO’s 2021 estimate of 1.19 million annual road deaths, only modestly below 2010, contradicts the very-few-accidents scenario. Individual safer systems do not establish the whole-system outcome.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Transport injury and death remained a major global burden around the target date.", "at_review_rationale": "WHO’s 2021 estimate of 1.19 million annual road deaths, only modestly below 2010, contradicts the very-few-accidents scenario. Individual safer systems do not establish the whole-system outcome.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N24" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Automation reduces transportation accidents to a very low societal burden, not just a modest statistical improvement.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Transport injury and death remained a major global burden around the target date. WHO’s 2021 estimate of 1.19 million annual road deaths, only modestly below 2010, contradicts the very-few-accidents scenario. Individual safer systems do not establish the whole-system outcome.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Transport injury and death remained a major global burden around the target date.", "at_review_rationale": "WHO’s 2021 estimate of 1.19 million annual road deaths, only modestly below 2010, contradicts the very-few-accidents scenario. Individual safer systems do not establish the whole-system outcome.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N24" ], "verdict": "WRONG", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Safety technology produces some meaningful reduction in accident risk.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Improvement is real but uneven and far weaker than the original near-elimination scenario.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Very few accidents" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N24" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "WRONG", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "NOT_FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Transport injury and death remained a major global burden around the target date. WHO’s 2021 estimate of 1.19 million annual road deaths, only modestly below 2010, contradicts the very-few-accidents scenario. Individual safer systems do not establish the whole-system outcome.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Transport injury and death remained a major global burden around the target date.", "at_review_rationale": "WHO’s 2021 estimate of 1.19 million annual road deaths, only modestly below 2010, contradicts the very-few-accidents scenario. Individual safer systems do not establish the whole-system outcome.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N24", "locator": "2021 global annual road deaths 1.19 million; about 5% below 2010. These are observed-year figures, not invented 2026 counts.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Uses road deaths as a conservative indicator of the transport-harm burden, not an exact count of all transport accidents in October 2026.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K082", "slug": "k082-human-machine-creative-collaborations-gain-recognition", "title": "Human-machine creative collaborations gain recognition", "prediction_paraphrase": "Human-machine creative collaborations gain recognition", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Media, education & culture", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K082", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Arts in 2019, cyberart bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Human-machine artistic collaborations emerge and receive serious cultural/institutional attention.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "HIGH", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "HIGH", "at_review": "HIGH" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Human-machine artistic collaborations emerge and receive serious cultural/institutional attention.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019. The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2018, "at_deadline_rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N27" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Human-machine artistic collaborations emerge and receive serious cultural/institutional attention.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019. The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2018, "at_deadline_rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N27" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Human-machine artistic collaborations emerge and receive serious cultural/institutional attention.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019. The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2018, "at_deadline_rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N27" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2018, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2018", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "HIGH", "disputed_interpretation": false, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019. The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Christie’s 2018 sale of a GAN-assisted work created by a human collective establishes serious institutional attention before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "The modest emergence-and-recognition claim was fulfilled. It did not require most artists or leading artists to be machines.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2018, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N27", "locator": "Obvious/GAN portrait sold October 2018 for $432,500. Supports serious institutional attention, not majority adoption by artists.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K083", "slug": "k083-major-aging-and-cancer-mechanisms-become-understood", "title": "Major aging and cancer mechanisms become understood", "prediction_paraphrase": "Major aging and cancer mechanisms become understood", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Biology & medicine", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "RESEARCH_MILESTONE", "family_id": "K083", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Health care in 2019, first clause; lifespan clause separately K027", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "Scientists understand many important genetic/cellular processes of aging and cancer; a complete causal model or cure is not required.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "MEDIUM", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "Scientists understand many important genetic/cellular processes of aging and cancer; a complete causal model or cure is not required.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019. Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2018, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N38", "N39", "N40" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "Scientists understand many important genetic/cellular processes of aging and cancer; a complete causal model or cure is not required.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019. Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "SAME_AS_REFERENCE", "documented_by_year": 2018, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N38", "N39", "N40" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "Scientists understand many important genetic/cellular processes of aging and cancer; a complete causal model or cure is not required.", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019. Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2018, "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N38", "N39", "N40" ], "verdict": "CORRECT", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": 2018, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "DOCUMENTED_BY", "label": "Documented by 2018", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "CORRECT", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019. Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "at_deadline_rationale": "The 2013 hallmarks framework and 2018 Pan-Cancer Atlas demonstrate substantial mechanistic and molecular understanding before 2019.", "at_review_rationale": "Continued refinement, including 12 aging hallmarks in 2023, does not erase those real insights. The source says many processes, not all biology solved.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": 2018, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N38", "locator": "Nine tentative mechanistic hallmarks; progress and unresolved interactions both explicit. Mechanistic insight does not establish a cure for aging.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N39", "locator": "Pan-Cancer Atlas, 33 tumor types. Molecular classification is evidence of biological understanding, not complete causal explanation or universal treatment.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N40", "locator": "Expanded 12-hallmark framework. Shows progress and continued open mechanisms, not a complete model of human lifespan.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Mechanistic knowledge, predictive understanding and treatment effectiveness are separate milestones. This judgment is not medical advice and awards no credit toward the linked lifespan-over-100 forecast.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.", "An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "non_scoring_comparators": [ { "criterion": "Aging and cancer are understood well enough for comprehensive predictive causal models across patients and mechanisms.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "The cited research explicitly retains major uncertainties and interactions. That stronger comprehensive-understanding interpretation is partial.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N38", "N39", "N40" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": false, "comparator_warning": "Stronger than the located wording; not an obligation of the original forecast and excluded from accuracy calculations.", "eligible_for_author_accuracy": false } ], "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } }, { "id": "K084", "slug": "k084-simulated-people-mediate-nearly-all-transactions", "title": "Simulated people mediate nearly all transactions", "prediction_paraphrase": "Simulated people mediate nearly all transactions", "wording_kind": "EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE", "original_quote": null, "primary_category": "Economy & society", "subcategory": "", "tags": [], "claim_type": "ADOPTION", "family_id": "K084", "parent_statement_id": null, "legacy_ids": [], "origin": "NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION", "publication": { "forecast_year": 1999, "year_basis": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE", "original_book_edition_checked": false, "forecast_year_status": "ATTRIBUTED_1999" }, "target": { "text": "2019", "deadline_year": 2019, "precision": "YEAR", "year_start": 2019, "year_end": 2019, "interpretation": "End of named target year." }, "source_verification": { "state": "AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "book_text_not_independently_collated": true }, "prediction_sources": [ { "source_id": "P02", "locator": "P02 Business in 2019, simulated-person transactions bullet", "role": "FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION" } ], "legacy_relations": [], "population_scope": "Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.", "success_criteria": "The vast majority of transactions involve an AI-like simulated person, often agent-to-agent without direct human involvement.", "attribution_confidence": "MEDIUM", "interpretation_confidence": "MEDIUM", "outcome_confidence": { "at_deadline": "MEDIUM", "at_review": "MEDIUM" }, "timing_confidence": "LOW", "date_uncertainty_affects_verdict": false, "interpretations": { "reference": { "criterion": "The vast majority of transactions involve an AI-like simulated person, often agent-to-agent without direct human involvement.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Ordinary online checkout and payment automation in 2019 were not predominantly simulated-person interactions. Agent payment protocols and commercial conversational-commerce offerings now make the direction concrete. They do not establish the original vast-majority share.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary online checkout and payment automation in 2019 were not predominantly simulated-person interactions.", "at_review_rationale": "Agent payment protocols and commercial conversational-commerce offerings now make the direction concrete. They do not establish the original vast-majority share.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N55", "N56", "N31" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": false, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "strict": { "criterion": "The vast majority of transactions involve an AI-like simulated person, often agent-to-agent without direct human involvement.", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "rationale": "Ordinary online checkout and payment automation in 2019 were not predominantly simulated-person interactions. Agent payment protocols and commercial conversational-commerce offerings now make the direction concrete. They do not establish the original vast-majority share.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [], "kind": "REFERENCE_READING", "documented_by_year": null, "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary online checkout and payment automation in 2019 were not predominantly simulated-person interactions.", "at_review_rationale": "Agent payment protocols and commercial conversational-commerce offerings now make the direction concrete. They do not establish the original vast-majority share.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "N55", "N56", "N31" ], "verdict": "PARTIAL", "same_as_reference": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true }, "broader": { "criterion": "AI agents become capable of completing commercial transactions for users.", "at_deadline": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "at_review": "FULFILLED", "rationale": "The later agentic-commerce offering realizes useful transactional agents, without a market-share claim.", "relaxed_or_changed_conditions": [ "Vast majority", "Routine human-free inter-agent execution" ], "kind": "ALTERNATIVE_READING", "documented_by_year": 2025, "verdict": "LATE", "same_as_reference": false, "evidence_source_ids": [ "N55", "N56", "N31" ], "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "deadline_year": 2019, "outcome_assessment_complete": true } }, "timing": { "first_full_achievement_year": null, "documented_by_year": null, "achievement_interval_years": null, "kind": "UNESTABLISHED", "label": "Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay", "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null }, "assessment": { "review_state": "EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE", "verdict": "PARTIAL", "as_of": "2026-10-15", "at_deadline": "NOT_FULFILLED", "at_review": "PARTLY_FULFILLED", "confidence": "MEDIUM", "disputed_interpretation": true, "benchmark_ready": true, "rationale": "Ordinary online checkout and payment automation in 2019 were not predominantly simulated-person interactions. Agent payment protocols and commercial conversational-commerce offerings now make the direction concrete. They do not establish the original vast-majority share.", "at_deadline_rationale": "Ordinary online checkout and payment automation in 2019 were not predominantly simulated-person interactions.", "at_review_rationale": "Agent payment protocols and commercial conversational-commerce offerings now make the direction concrete. They do not establish the original vast-majority share.", "first_full_achievement_year": null, "full_achievement_documented_by_year": null, "drift_years": null, "drift_range_years": null, "still_unfulfilled_as_of_review": true, "eligible_for_deadline_metrics": true, "withheld_reason": null, "verdict_qualifier": null, "outcome_evidence_basis": "DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION", "attribution_is_separate": true, "first_event_date_required_for_verdict": false, "at_review_semantics": "FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES" }, "evidence": [ { "source_id": "N55", "locator": "Protocol and reference implementations; not evidence most real-world transactions use simulated people.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N56", "locator": "Commercial offering and agent interaction architecture. No market-wide transaction-share denominator supplied.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" }, { "source_id": "N31", "locator": "Second quarter 2026 e-commerce share 17.1% of retail sales by value. Not B2B, securities trading, or a count of all transactions.", "role": "OUTCOME_EVIDENCE" } ], "limitations": "Protocol membership and product announcements are not market-wide transaction volumes. Electronic processing alone is not a simulated person.", "open_questions": [ "Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment." ], "deduplication": { "is_canonical": true, "is_repeated_identical_claim": false, "counting_unit": "DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION", "note": "Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted." }, "revision_history": [], "is_new_in_v03": true, "counting_policy": { "unit": "distinct_forecast_version", "identical_repetitions_count_once": true, "alternative_interpretations_count_once": true, "legacy_conditional_rows_count": false } } ] }