In our default reading, 3 of 4 network forecasts and 4 of 5 medical forecasts were fully realized by the review date. Robotics and transport: 1 of 5. These are small groups drawn from an incomplete collection.

68 predictions with deadlines passed

Interpretation

On timeLatePartialMissed

Open a field to see its predictions. Hover a square for the claim; select it for the evidence.

10 / 1662.5%

5 on time 31.3%

Computing hardware predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K002Portable computers become markedly lighter and thinner.	2009	On time
K005Most personal computing devices have no moving parts.	2009	On time
K046Computers span tiny accessories through thin book-sized devices.	2009	On time
K052$1,000 PCs reach one teraflop	2009	On time
K050Computing is largely invisible and embedded throughout surroundings.	2019	On time
K003Clothing and jewelry commonly contain computers.	2009	Late
K006Most portable computers have no keyboards.	2009	Late
K033Supercomputers reach approximately 2×10^16 calculations per second.	2009	Late
K0513D integrated circuits become common	2009	Late
K053Idle Internet PCs form virtual supercomputers	2009	Late
K004Typical people use at least twelve body-networked computers.	2009	Missed
K034$1,000 in 1999 dollars buys brain-scale computation.	2019	Missed
K070Electronic storage fully replaces rotating media	2019	Missed
K071Carbon-nanotube circuitry becomes prevalent	2019	Missed
K074Tiny diffraction cameras replace most lenses	2019	Missed
K025$1,000 purchases human-brain computational capacity.	2020	Missed
K035$1,000 buys approximately 1,000 brains of computation.	2029	FutureNot counted

6 / 1154.5%

4 on time 36.4%

Interfaces & virtual worlds predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K013Paper-like small displays support routine electronic reading.	2009	On time
K014See-through glasses project imagery directly onto retinas.	2009	On time
K067Remote touch technology begins to emerge	2009	On time
K018Digital displays overlay guidance on the real world.	2010	On time
K016Tiny devices project spatial auditory environments.	2010	Late
K017High-resolution audiovisual virtual reality is available anytime.	2010	Late
K015Eyeglass and contact-lens displays deliver retinal imagery.	2010	Partial
K030Retinal glasses or contacts are routinely used.	2019	Partial
K075Calls provide convincing three-dimensional presence	2019	Partial
K068Photorealistic virtual rooms replace text chat	2009	Missed
K031Widely available booths reproduce the full tactile experience.	2019	Missed

5 / 955.6%

3 on time 33.3%

AI & software predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K001A computer defeats the world chess champion.	1998	On time
K054Interest in neural methods grows	2009	On time
K077Practical speech translation covers common language pairs	2019	On time
K048Many-pair translating telephones are commonly used.	2009	Late
K055Computer cameras recognize their owners	2009	Late
K012Routine-task language interfaces become ubiquitous, often with avatars.	2009	Partial
K029Most computer interaction uses gestures and natural speech.	2019	Partial
K072Neural and genetic methods consume most computation	2019	Partial
K011Speech dictation produces most text.	2009	Missed
K022Nonbiological intelligence vastly exceeds humanity’s combined intelligence.	2045	FutureNot counted
K023A machine satisfies the agreed Long Bets Turing protocol.	2029	FutureNot counted
K045Hardware and software achieve human-level intelligence.	2029	FutureNot counted

4 / 850.0%

4 on time 50.0%

Media, education & culture predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K008Digital media and software arrive as wireless files.	2009	On time
K057Learning materials arrive wirelessly	2009	On time
K066Nonmusicians compose music with software	2009	On time
K082Human-machine creative collaborations gain recognition	2019	On time
K056Students carry personal sub-pound tablets	2009	Partial
K058Teachers shift mainly to mentoring	2009	Partial
K065Screens become the preferred visual-art medium	2009	Partial
K078AI tutors deliver most learning	2019	Missed
K039Electronic documents become interactive and nonlinear.	Undated	UndatedNot counted

4 / 580.0%

3 on time 60.0%

Biology & medicine predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K063Pattern recognition becomes routine in medical imaging	2009	On time
K041Wearables commonly diagnose conditions and support intervention.	2019	On time
K083Major aging and cancer mechanisms become understood	2019	On time
K064Patient histories become lifelong digital records	2009	Late
K062Telemedicine includes remote tactile examinations	2009	Partial
K024Bloodstream nanobots perform scouting and limited repairs.	2029	FutureNot counted

2 / 540.0%

2 on time 40.0%

Economy & society predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K060Work groups become geographically distributed	2009	On time
K076Most meetings need no physical co-location	2019	On time
K084Simulated people mediate nearly all transactions	2019	Partial
K059At least half of transactions occur online	2009	Missed
K079Workers spend most time learning	2019	Missed
K037UBI across developed economies.	2033	FutureNot counted
K038Worldwide UBI.	2039	FutureNot counted
K040Information technology creates a dilemma for authoritarian control.	Undated	UndatedNot counted

1 / 520.0%

1 on time 20.0%

Robotics & transportation predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K061Household robots emerge before full acceptance	2009	On time
K026Cars lock into automated highway control systems.	2009	Partial
K080Reliable household robots become ubiquitous	2019	Partial
K047Smart roads and automation eliminate most human driving.	2019	Missed
K081Transportation accidents become very rare	2019	Missed

3 / 475.0%

2 on time 50.0%

Networks & communications predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K009Short-range wireless links reduce peripheral cabling.	2009	On time
K010Computers routinely reach an ever-available high-bandwidth network.	2009	On time
K069Wireless phones routinely carry live video	2009	Late
K007Most users maintain home and office servers.	2009	Partial

1 / 250.0%

1 on time 50.0%

Neuroscience & human augmentation predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K073Brain scanning clarifies specialized neural regions	2019	On time
K036Effective models cover the entire human brain.	2025	Partial
K032Neural links augment or bypass specialized brain functions.	2029	FutureNot counted
K043High-bandwidth brain links connect cognition to cloud computation.	2033	FutureNot counted
K049Cochlear implants become widespread two-way network interfaces.	2029	FutureNot counted

0 / 20.0%

0 on time 0.0%

Security & warfare predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K020Unmanned intelligent aircraft dominate warfare.	2009	Partial
K019Humans are generally far from the battle scene.	2009	Missed

0 / 10.0%

0 on time 0.0%

Longevity predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K027Expected human lifespan exceeds 100 years.	2019	Missed
K028Human life expectancy reaches 120 years.	2029	FutureNot counted
K042Medical progress adds at least a year of remaining life annually.	2029	FutureNot counted

Waiting for deadlines

—

Energy & environment predictions — reference reading
Prediction	Target	Judgment
K021Solar supplies all global energy.	2028	FutureNot counted
K044Renewables cross the full electricity-demand threshold.	2034	FutureNot counted

Manufacturing & materialsNo records yet
—
—

Fully realized = on time + late. Partial gets no fractional credit. Both percentages use the assessed predictions in that field. Sample sizes and deadlines differ between fields.

How the 13 categories are defined

Computing hardware

Claims about computing capacity, size and cost.

Networks & communications

Transport and availability of information, not language understanding.

AI & software

Software abilities. Tag commercial adoption separately.

Interfaces & virtual worlds

Distinguish headsets, retinal displays, contact lenses and direct neural interfaces.

Biology & medicine

Separate computational research milestones from human clinical outcomes.

Longevity

Keep population, age group, access and life-expectancy definition explicit.

Neuroscience & human augmentation

Brain hardware, brain understanding and cognition augmentation.

Robotics & transportation

Distinguish prototype, commercial service and widespread use.

Manufacturing & materials

Medical nanobots: primary category Biology & medicine; nanotech as a tag.

Energy & environment

Preserve energy versus electricity, capacity versus generation.

Economy & society

Track geography and population; separate causal claims from observed events.

Media, education & culture

Do not confuse availability with dominant use.

Security & warfare

Distinguish device existence from prevalence or displacement of personnel.

How the target years compare

The two largest groups target 2009 and 2019: 61 of these 68 forecasts. Each column shows the outcomes for one target year, assessed through October 15, 2026.

Interpretation

On timeLatePartialMissed

Select a year to see its predictions. 68 predictions with deadlines passed.

Predictions

Target year · one column per group

Older targets have had longer to catch up, and each group contains different claims. Only due forecasts are shown; year columns are equally spaced.

Compare by prediction type or decade

Compare the collection

84 predictions · 68 with deadlines passed · Our judgment

Group by

Capability asks whether a technology exists; adoption asks how widely people use it.

Outcomes by Prediction type, Our judgment. Future and undated predictions are excluded from outcome counts.
Prediction type	Due	On time	Late	Partial	Missed
Adoption	34	7	6	12	9
Capability9 future	25	14	4	4	3
Performance / cost1 future	3	0	1	0	2
Research milestone	2	2	0	0	0
Social / institutional4 future · 2 undated	2	0	0	0	2
Trend	2	2	0	0	0

14 future and 2 undated predictions are outside the outcome counts. Select a count to explore its predictions in the ledger.

Judgments & sourcesBack to the data ↑

What counts as a hit?

We judge each claim against its deadline and intended scale. A working product can satisfy a capability forecast; a prediction of widespread use also needs evidence of adoption.

Consumer preference and regulation can limit use even when a technology works. We judge those cases individually and show alternative readings where the result is ambiguous.

CorrectTarget: 2009

Wireless peripherals

Wireless keyboards and mice were in ordinary use by 2009. He was right about the technology, but less accurate about consumer preference: wired devices remained in use.

Read the evidence

LateTarget: 2009

Brain-scale supercomputing

Tianhe-2 exceeded the 20-petaflop benchmark in 2013, four years after the deadline. This measures computing performance, not a simulation of the human brain.

Read the evidence

PartialTarget: 2019

Robots in every home

Robot vacuums handle a specific chore. The forecast called for robots in nearly every household, doing a broad range of chores.

Read the evidence

How much do the judgments change the score?

How the reading changes the result

Same 67 predictions in every reading. One brain-modeling forecast is left out because its alternative deadline has not passed.

Reading comparison on the same eligible forecast versions; selected subset only.
Reading	Predictions	On time	Fully realized
Reference (stated reasonable reading)	67	37.3%25 / 67	53.7%36 / 67
Strict / alternative reading	67	25.4%17 / 67	37.3%25 / 67
Broader / directional reading	67	55.2%37 / 67	92.5%62 / 67

The main comparison has 68 due predictions. This comparison uses the 67 eligible in all three readings. Broader success may mean meeting different conditions; open a record to see what changed.

Check our work

Each record includes the forecast, our judgment, source links and earlier assessments. Open one to check the reasoning or compare alternative readings.

Explore the predictions

What this collection can tell us

It compares 84 distinct forecast versions. Repeated claims count once; materially different deadlines or thresholds stay separate. 68 are due, 14 are future, and 2 lack a usable deadline.

The selection is incomplete and uneven across fields. Most book claims were checked through reprints or retrospectives; original editions still need checking. The research and judgments are AI-assisted and have not had independent human review.

Outcomes are assessed through October 15, 2026. The sources and downloads include all 88 original intake records and earlier assessments.