Sources & record history.

Retrospective is a locator and attribution source; its self-scores are not independent outcome evidence.

Remaining: Full original-book collation, complete 147-item 2009 corpus, unextracted future/scenario claims, and remaining interviews.

P01

Author-adapted article checked via mirror; book edition not independently collated.

Remaining: Full original-book collation, complete 147-item 2009 corpus, unextracted future/scenario claims, and remaining interviews.

P02

Selected source passages reviewed.

Remaining: Full original-book collation, complete 147-item 2009 corpus, unextracted future/scenario claims, and remaining interviews.

P03

Selected source passages reviewed.

Remaining: Full original-book collation, complete 147-item 2009 corpus, unextracted future/scenario claims, and remaining interviews.

P04

Selected source passages reviewed.

Remaining: Full original-book collation, complete 147-item 2009 corpus, unextracted future/scenario claims, and remaining interviews.

P05

Published: 2020-01-09 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

June 2019 US survey: 21% regularly wear one. Common does not mean majority, and US adult prevalence is not global prevalence.

Published: 2010-10-14 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.

Published: 2009-03-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2004-08-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Microvision-issued release hosted by The Auto Channel: actual industrial deployment. Head-worn see-through retinal display; not ordinary prescription-glasses styling or mass consumer adoption.

Published: 2019-05-20 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2020-10-08 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Geofenced Phoenix service, not all roads, universal ownership, or road-embedded guidance infrastructure.

Published: 2026-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2025 civilian casualties and ongoing front-line fighting; not a global measure of military drone share.

Published: 2020-09-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

RTX 3080 launch price $699 and roughly 30 FP32 shader TFLOPS. Tensor, ray-tracing and shader operations are not interchangeable.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.

Published: 2025-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

RTX 5080 launch MSRP $999, 1,801 AI TOPS. Launch prices are not represented as October 2026 retail quotes; a GPU also is not a whole PC.

Published: 2013-08-06 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2019-08-28 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Research prototype with more than 14,000 carbon-nanotube transistors, not commercial prevalence.

Published: 2026-01-12 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Current counterexample to complete displacement of rotating magnetic storage; shipping announcement for January 14, 2026.

Published: 2023-12 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Mouse cell atlas, not a functional emulation of the entire human brain.

Published: 2024-10-02 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Adult fruit-fly connectome. Species, wiring map and functional cognitive model must not be conflated.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

US series: 2008 hospitals 9%, physicians 17%; 2014 76% and 51%; 2022 99% and 84%. Definitions evolve; adoption does not prove complete interoperable lifetime records.

Published: 2010 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Computer-aided detection accompanied 74% of Medicare screening mammograms in 2008. Routine use is established, not improved accuracy or autonomous diagnosis.

Published: 2022-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

37% of US adults used phone or video telemedicine in 2021. Does not establish widespread tactile remote examination.

Published: 2015 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Conversation and speech translation documented in product updates. Text-language counts must not be presented as speech-language counts; 44-language wearable speech support is separately identified.

Published: 2020-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

23.2 million consumer/domestic service robots sold in 2019, +34%. Annual sales are not household penetration or a count of robot-owning homes.

Published: 2025 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Institutional context on continuing human teachers, shortages and AI assistance. Normative guidance is not a statistical census of all learning hours.

Published: 2019-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Time-use study separates work and educational activity. Does not fully count informal on-the-job learning, which is an interpretation limitation.

Published: 2023-12-13 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2021 global annual road deaths 1.19 million; about 5% below 2010. These are observed-year figures, not invented 2026 counts.

Published: 2018-09-12 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; ECG deployment corroborated by December 2018 release O22. Not diagnosis of all diseases or autonomous treatment.

Published: 2004-01-06 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2018-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Obvious/GAN portrait sold October 2018 for $432,500. Supports serious institutional attention, not majority adoption by artists.

Published: 2025-08 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Local finger-scale multimodal haptics; not whole-body, all-sensation realism. Preprint status retained.

Published: 2026-03-07 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Clinical translation, safety and manufacturing challenges; nanoparticles are not autonomous bloodstream repair robots.

Published: 2010 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2009 retail e-commerce share about 3.7% by value. US consumer retail proxy, not all worldwide transactions or number of payments.

Published: 2026-08-18 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Second quarter 2026 e-commerce share 17.1% of retail sales by value. Not B2B, securities trading, or a count of all transactions.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Project retrospectively reports 2.4 exaFLOPS peak in 2020; aggregate application throughput, not one shared-memory brain emulator or LINPACK score.

Published: 2010-05 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2025-06-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Enterprise light-field telepresence, six-camera capture. Launch/availability plan supports capability and commercialization, not routine calls or demonstrated above-human acuity.

Published: 2012 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Web invention in 1989 and subsequent 1990s development. Realization is established; this does not prove it was wholly novel to a 1990 forecaster.

Published: 2025-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Original research on freedom online; supports a mixed information-access/control story, not a causal attribution of the Soviet collapse.

Published: 2013-06-06 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Nine tentative mechanistic hallmarks; progress and unresolved interactions both explicit. Mechanistic insight does not establish a cure for aging.

Published: 2018-04-05 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Pan-Cancer Atlas, 33 tumor types. Molecular classification is evidence of biological understanding, not complete causal explanation or universal treatment.

Published: 2023-01-19 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Expanded 12-hallmark framework. Shows progress and continued open mechanisms, not a complete model of human lifespan.

Published: 2006-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Describes 2002 Boston–London virtual handshake and networked force feedback; supports emerging remote touch, not full-body realism.

Published: 2007-03-15 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

WebEx had more than 2.2 million registered users; evidence of established distributed collaboration, not most employees working from home.

Published: 2007-05-30 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Free lectures and educational material from major universities; Wi-Fi-capable computers establish wireless access but not wireless prevalence at every school.

Published: 2017-09-12 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Announced September, retail availability November 3, 2017. Documented secure everyday owner recognition; not first-ever face recognition.

Published: 2022 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

96% of public schools provided devices to students who needed them by 2021–22; 23% assigned take-home devices to all students before COVID. Not proof every student owned a sub-pound tablet.

Published: 2019-07-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2016-07-20 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

180 cortical areas per hemisphere; direct evidence of improved regional brain understanding, not whole-brain functional reconstruction.

Published: 2010-01-05 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

January 2010 retrospective on robots launched in 2002 and already commercially established in the 2000s; do not shift the threshold by one year just because the tally was announced in January.

Published: 2014-02-13 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

968 million smartphones; Android plus iOS dominated. Inferring physical-keyboard-free portable computing requires a population definition, not simply counting all feature phones.

Published: 2008-06-26 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Italian reproduction of AMD June 25 release: HD 4850/4870 availability, FP32 peak and $199/$299 suggested prices. An editor-inferred sub-$1000 PC budget is not a measured whole-system benchmark.

Published: 2025-09-16 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Protocol and reference implementations; not evidence most real-world transactions use simulated people.

Published: 2025-10-27 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Commercial offering and agent interaction architecture. No market-wide transaction-share denominator supplied.

Published: 2021-10-18 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Retail availability October 26, 2021; small earbuds with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio. Establishes a documented-by year, not the first such device.

Published: 2026-04-20 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2025 generation: renewables 34%, coal 34%, natural gas 21%. Capacity and generation are not interchangeable.

Published: 2026-04-20 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2025 solar PV generation nearly 2,700 TWh, over 8% of electricity. Growth contribution does not mean share of all energy.

Published: 2006-07 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.

Published: 2025 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

About 6 billion users (74%) in 2025, with 2.2 billion offline. The latest observed year is 2025, not 2026.

Published: 2006-04-15 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Seven-patient study of implanted engineered bladder tissue for reconstruction. Not transplantation of complete replacement kidneys, hearts, or every organ.

Published: 2012-01-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

The page identifies and reproduces a MakerBot press release for a ready-to-use personal desktop printer. Editorial bracketed comments are not used as technical evidence.

Published: 2004-01-26 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2000 worldwide digital 11m versus analog 71m. November-2003 projections digital 50m versus analog 57m; do not falsely declare a worldwide crossover in 2003 from US-only figures.

Published: 2026-02-24 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Current mainstream digital imaging and interchangeable optical lenses. Supports the present digital-camera ecosystem and persistence of lenses, not an exact historic film crossover year.

Published: 2026-04-09 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

2025 survey: print-readership 64%, e-book readership 31%, audiobook 26%. Reader penetration is not the number of books read or worldwide market share.

Published: 2015 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Official retrospective on 2014 operational shipboard laser demonstrations against boats and a UAV. Does not establish particle-beam weapons or laser dominance.

Published: 2019-10-17 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Discoverable collection exceeding 40 million books in 2019. Not evidence that most paper ever produced has been scanned, or that every listed book is completely scanned.

Published: 2026-09-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

First-half 2026 streaming accounted for 82% of US recorded-music revenue. CD sales still exist; dominant replacement need not mean eradication.

Published: 2010 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Text states Internet users doubled between 2005 and 2010; 2010 estimate exceeds two billion. Historical growth evidence, not an exact 2009 endpoint.

Published: 2025-09-15 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Shipping real-time spoken translation in Phone for selected language pairs; five languages at initial launch. Not every language, country or device.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · web text or indexed extract checked

Current iOS 26 guide lists one-on-one spoken Phone translation across English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese and Korean variants. Supports actual telephone integration, not perfect translation quality.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Documents the 1997 match victory; not proof of the original date or wording of Kurzweil’s forecast.

Published: 2000-02-16 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2008-01-15 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2001-01-09 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2007-11-19 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2008-06-19 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2008-07-14 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2003-09-16 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Published: 2009-07-22 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

US adult survey. Ever-used wireless access is not a majority-of-traffic measure and is not global coverage.

Published: 2011-10-04 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Announcement; retail availability October 14. This is NOT the first-ever voice assistant, nor the first standalone Siri release.

Published: 2009 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Fall 2009 university account of English–Spanish speech translation on iPhone. Not evidence of common use across many language pairs.

Published: 2011-10-13 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Speech conversation mode expanded to 14 languages; still described as alpha. Not equivalent to translation quality or universal adoption.

Published: 2009-12-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Describes active human fighting and plans for 30,000 additional US troops in Afghanistan in early 2010. Do not date those additional deployments to 2009.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Live guidance checked for this review. Describes limited operating areas for automated fleets and driver-attention requirements of consumer vehicles; not a historical 2009 market census.

Published: 2007-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Closed-course research challenge, not everyday automated public-highway infrastructure.

Published: 2020-12 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Final US period life expectancy for 2019: 78.8 years. A national period measure, not a prediction of a newborn cohort’s eventual lifespan.

Published: 2026-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Final US period life expectancy for 2024: 79.0 years. Do not call this a 2026 observation.

Published: 2009-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Jaguar Rmax 1.759 petaflops; Rpeak 2.331 petaflops. Rmax is measured LINPACK performance, not brain emulation.

Published: 2012-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Sequoia Rpeak 20.13266 petaflops and Rmax 16.32475; Titan Rpeak 27.11255 and Rmax 17.59. Peak and measured values must not be mixed.

Published: 2013-06 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Tianhe-2 recorded 33.86 petaflops Rmax. This establishes a public measured milestone, not a cognition milestone.

Published: 2025-03-31 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Five-minute experimental protocol. GPT-4.5 with a humanlike persona was judged human in 73% of the reported comparisons. Not the two-hour Long Bets protocol.

Published: 2018-12-06 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

AFib-related features are limited-purpose. The release expressly lists conditions they cannot detect; not general diagnosis or autonomous treatment.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-15 · reused checked source

Cochlear implants do not restore normal hearing. Used to correct a medical error in our intake, not to manufacture a Kurzweil forecast.

Published: 2010-10 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.

Published: 1999 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Attributed to Kurzweil; closing note identifies adaptation from The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999). An article mirror, not a scan of the book. Text transcription may contain errors. The article’s dollar amounts must not silently replace differently quoted book versions.

Published: 2002 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Kapor takes the NO side; Kurzweil takes the opposing side. Detailed test conditions belong to this contract, not to every generic use of “Turing test.”

Published: 2011-01-01 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Page identifies the dialogue as 2005. Store dialogue year 2005 separately from archive publication date 2011. Not a checked scan of the 2005 book.

Published: 2024-03-11 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Bessemer hosts the interview and timestamped transcript. Do not attribute interviewer comments to Kurzweil. The Q&A section is explicitly summarized; cited passages below are in the main transcript.

Published: 2018-04-13 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Secondary, contemporaneous attribution of a TED appearance. Original event transcript was not obtained; lower attribution confidence. Not used as technical outcome evidence.

Published: 2008-02-19 · Checked: 2026-10-15 · text checked

Archived event reporting, not an original talk transcript. Review must distinguish solar from all renewables and energy from electricity.

Published: 2005-01-11 · Checked: 2026-10-18 · primary page text checked

Documents a USB flash-storage music player and immediate shipping. Flash storage supports an absence of mechanical storage, not the absence of all physical switches.

Published: 2007-01-09 · Checked: 2026-10-18 · primary page text checked

Documents the soft keyboard, Multi-Touch interface, EDGE/Wi-Fi and pocketable device. January was an announcement with US availability planned for June 2007; it is not a January retail launch.

Published: 2007-01-08 · Checked: 2026-10-18 · primary page text checked

A forward-looking announcement of a home-local server architecture. Establishes design and announced functions, not sales, adoption or contemporaneous retail availability.

Published: not recorded · Checked: 2026-10-18 · primary page text checked

Official product lifecycle starts 2007-10-11. This is a product-support date, not a household-adoption measure; the webpage publication date is not given.

Published: 2008-10-14 · Checked: 2026-10-18 · primary page text checked

The MacBook Air update explicitly states three pounds and a 0.16–0.76-inch enclosure. This is evidence by October 2008, not a claimed first-ever lightweight notebook.