Unmanned aircraft dominate warfare
Target: see linked record
PARTIAL · At deadline: NOT FULFILLED · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
K020 →Back to the scorecard
AUD-021/Security & warfare
War will be carried out by autonomous drones by 2010.
i
Original intake · research history. This lead is preserved as imported. It is not scored or redirected. RESTORE THRESHOLD
Dominance needs a defined measure; drone existence alone is insufficient.
Outcome dispositions on the corrected source-matched criteria
Outcome judgments are completed on the linked source-matched criteria. Preserve the original wording/date and this reconciliation; do not represent a corrected scope as a verbatim import.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K020Unmanned aircraft dominate warfareDisposition sources: P01
01
The original imported lead.
IMPORTED PARAPHRASE · NOT A VERIFIED QUOTATION
War will be carried out by autonomous drones by 2010.
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999) [Warfare]
1999 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
02
Timeline
PREDICTION MADE1999Unconfirmed source year
ORIGINAL TARGET2009No exact deadline used in statistics
FULL REALIZATION—No achievement year established
Outcome at original deadlineUNREVIEWED
Outcome at reviewUNREVIEWED
Supplied target wording: 2009. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
03
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
04
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review. Do not equate existence/use of drones with dominant warfare or humans being far from battle.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 22
- Legacy identifier
- AUD-021
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- AUD-021
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- AUD-021
- Prediction — imported lead
- War will be carried out by autonomous drones by 2010.
- Primary category — draft
- Security & warfare
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- Military/Robotics
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Age of Spiritual Machines* (1999) [Warfare]
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 1999
- Target text — legacy
- 2009
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- AUD-021
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review. Do not equate existence/use of drones with dominant warfare or humans being far from battle.
- Legacy import ID
- AUD-021
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: Dominance needs a defined measure; drone existence alone is insufficient.
— RESTORE_THRESHOLD: Dominance needs a defined measure; drone existence alone is insufficient. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.