Digital music distribution replaces CDs by 2000s
1990-book claim that digital music replaces CDs not located. Digital file delivery is related but weaker and has a different source.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
Digital delivery displaces CDs as the mainstream music channel by the end of the 2000s.
Conditional verdict: LATE
At original deadline: PARTLY FULFILLED · By review: FULFILLED
iTunes documents substantial download use before the deadline but not majority displacement. RIAA’s first-half 2026 figures show streaming dominates revenue. Mainstream replacement has occurred; CDs need not disappear.
CORRECT by 2009 for normal commercial digital distribution, without dominance.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
O06N69Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K008Wireless delivery of digital media and softwareDisposition sources: P01
The original imported lead.
Digital music distribution replaces CDs by 2000s
1990 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
Timeline
Supplied target wording: 2000s. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 36
- Legacy identifier
- DEC-005
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- DEC-005
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- DEC-005
- Prediction — imported lead
- Digital music distribution replaces CDs by 2000s
- Primary category — draft
- Media, education & culture
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- Media
- Claimed source — legacy
- The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 1990
- Target text — legacy
- 2000s
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- DEC-005
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- DEC-005
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: 1990-book claim that digital music replaces CDs not located. Digital file delivery is related but weaker and has a different source.
— QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY: 1990-book claim that digital music replaces CDs not located. Digital file delivery is related but weaker and has a different source. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.