Universal basic income early 2030s (rich) / end of 2030s (worldwide)

Legacy lead · see outcome dispositionResearch snapshot · October 15, 2026

Original intake · research history. This lead is preserved as imported. It is not scored or redirected. SPLIT INDEPENDENT DEADLINES

Separate developed-world early-2030s and global end-of-decade predictions. Report original-transcript limitation.

Outcome dispositions on the corrected source-matched criteria

Outcome judgments are completed on the linked source-matched criteria. Preserve the original wording/date and this reconciliation; do not represent a corrected scope as a verbatim import.

Developed-world universal basic income

Target: see linked record

PENDING · At deadline: NOT DUE · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED

K037 →

Worldwide universal basic income

Target: see linked record

PENDING · At deadline: NOT DUE · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED

K038 →

Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.

Reconciled records & related versions

A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.

Disposition sources: P06

The original imported lead.

IMPORTED PARAPHRASE · NOT A VERIFIED QUOTATION

Universal basic income early 2030s (rich) / end of 2030s (worldwide)

TED Talk (2018)

2018 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established

No verified source URL recorded

Normalized claim: Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
Success criteria: Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
Claim type: Not classified

Timeline

PREDICTION MADE2018Unconfirmed source year

ORIGINAL TARGET2030sNo exact deadline used in statistics

FULL REALIZATION—No achievement year established

Outcome at original deadlineUNREVIEWED

Outcome at reviewUNREVIEWED

Supplied target wording: 2030s. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.

The evidence.

No outcome evidence has been verified.

Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.

Capability, adoption, and timing

A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.

Research notes & history

Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.

Open questions

Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.

Imported from: kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 62
Legacy identifier: DEC-031
Forecast family: Not assigned
Parent statement: DEC-031
File checksum: dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2

Inspect preserved source fields

Record ID: DEC-031
Prediction — imported lead: Universal basic income early 2030s (rich) / end of 2030s (worldwide)
Primary category — draft: Economy & society
Subcategory / secondary tags: Society
Claimed source — legacy: TED Talk (2018)
Source year — unconfirmed: 2018
Target text — legacy: 2030s
Confirmed deadline year: (blank)
At-deadline outcome: UNREVIEWED
Outcome at review: UNREVIEWED
First full-achievement year: (blank)
Review year: 2026
Review state: UNREVIEWED
Canonical for statistics?: NO
Forecast family ID: (blank)
Parent statement ID: DEC-031
Prediction source URL: (blank)
Page / paragraph / timestamp: (blank)
Outcome evidence URLs: (blank)
Success criteria / scope: (blank)
Original wording checked?: NO
Adoption stage / claim type: (blank)
Date precision / target interval: (blank)
Review notes: Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Legacy import ID: DEC-031
Display status: UNREVIEWED
Drift — years: (blank)
Overdue — years: (blank)
Due and eligible: 0
On-time full hit: 0
Full realization hit: 0
Publication year confirmed: (blank)

Review history

2026-10-14 — Evidence v0.2: Separate developed-world early-2030s and global end-of-decade predictions. Report original-transcript limitation.

2026-10-15 — SPLIT_INDEPENDENT_DEADLINES: Separate developed-world early-2030s and global end-of-decade predictions. Report original-transcript limitation. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.

Related forecasts.

No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.