First 150-year-old by 2050 (implying longevity breakthroughs)
A first 150-year-old and average lifespan of 150 are different and neither was sourced. Do not derive either from longevity escape velocity.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
A first 150-year-old, or average lifespan 150, occurs around 2050.
Conditional verdict: PENDING
At original deadline: NOT DUE · By review: NOT FULFILLED
These two outcomes are different and neither should be silently inferred from longevity escape velocity. Both are future-dated and not demonstrated today; the imported attributed wording remains unresolved.
DEC-032 says first individual; EXE-029 says average lifespan. Keep those thresholds distinct.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
O17Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K042Longevity escape velocityDisposition sources: P05
The original imported lead.
First 150-year-old by 2050 (implying longevity breakthroughs)
2024 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
Timeline
Supplied target wording: 2050s. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 63
- Legacy identifier
- DEC-032
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- DEC-032
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- DEC-032
- Prediction — imported lead
- First 150-year-old by 2050 (implying longevity breakthroughs)
- Primary category — draft
- Longevity
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- Longevity
- Claimed source — legacy
- Guardian Interview (2024)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 2024
- Target text — legacy
- 2050s
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- DEC-032
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- DEC-032
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: A first 150-year-old and average lifespan of 150 are different and neither was sourced. Do not derive either from longevity escape velocity.
— QUARANTINE_UNSUPPORTED_INFERENCE: A first 150-year-old and average lifespan of 150 are different and neither was sourced. Do not derive either from longevity escape velocity. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.