Public Turing-test debate by 2009
Target: 2009
CORRECT · At deadline: FULFILLED · By review: FULFILLED
Back to the scorecard
EXE-011/AI & software
“Interest and speculation about the Turing test in 2009; by 2029 machines ‘routinely’ pass the test”【63†L386-L390】
i
Original intake · research history. This lead is preserved as imported. It is not scored or redirected. QUARANTINE AND SPLIT REQUIRED
Three dates and different Turing propositions need original-book passages. General 2029 expectation is related, not validation of all clauses.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
Turing-test debate by 2009, and routine passing by 2029.
Conditional verdict: PENDING
At original deadline: NOT DUE · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
The 2002 public wager establishes earlier debate. Its demanding 2029 success condition remains pending; shorter conversational experiments are separate positive evidence.
Routine passing by 2029
Target: 2029
PENDING · At deadline: NOT DUE · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
P03O21Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K045Human-level AI by the end of the 2020sK023The specific Kurzweil–Kapor Turing-test wagerDisposition sources:
01
The original imported lead.
IMPORTED PARAPHRASE · NOT A VERIFIED QUOTATION
“Interest and speculation about the Turing test in 2009; by 2029 machines ‘routinely’ pass the test”【63†L386-L390】
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
1999 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
02
Timeline
PREDICTION MADE1999Unconfirmed source year
ORIGINAL TARGET2009, 2019, 2029No exact deadline used in statistics
FULL REALIZATION—No achievement year established
Outcome at original deadlineUNREVIEWED
Outcome at reviewUNREVIEWED
Supplied target wording: 2009, 2019, 2029. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
03
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
04
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 73
- Legacy identifier
- EXE-011
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- EXE-011
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- EXE-011
- Prediction — imported lead
- “Interest and speculation about the Turing test in 2009; by 2029 machines ‘routinely’ pass the test”【63†L386-L390】
- Primary category — draft
- AI & software
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- AI / Turing
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Age of Spiritual Machines* (1999)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 1999
- Target text — legacy
- 2009, 2019, 2029
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- EXE-011
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- EXE-011
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: Three dates and different Turing propositions need original-book passages. General 2029 expectation is related, not validation of all clauses.
— QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED: Three dates and different Turing propositions need original-book passages. General 2029 expectation is related, not validation of all clauses. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.