A thousand-dollar brain-capacity computer in 2020
Target: see linked record
WRONG · At deadline: NOT FULFILLED · By review: NOT FULFILLED
K025 →Back to the scorecard
EXE-018/AI & software
“By around 2020 the same capacity will be available for \$1,000”【22†L381-L389】
i
Original intake · research history. This lead is preserved as imported. It is not scored or redirected. MERGE SAME SCOPE
2020 author-Q&A version located; brain-equivalence and budget/precision are not resolved.
Outcome dispositions on the corrected source-matched criteria
Outcome judgments are completed on the linked source-matched criteria. Preserve the original wording/date and this reconciliation; do not represent a corrected scope as a verbatim import.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K025A thousand-dollar brain-capacity computer in 2020Disposition sources: P04
01
The original imported lead.
IMPORTED PARAPHRASE · NOT A VERIFIED QUOTATION
“By around 2020 the same capacity will be available for \$1,000”【22†L381-L389】
The Singularity Is Near (2005)
2005 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
02
Timeline
PREDICTION MADE2005Unconfirmed source year
ORIGINAL TARGET~2020No exact deadline used in statistics
FULL REALIZATION—No achievement year established
Outcome at original deadlineUNREVIEWED
Outcome at reviewUNREVIEWED
Supplied target wording: ~2020. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
03
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
04
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 79
- Legacy identifier
- EXE-018
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- EXE-018
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- EXE-018
- Prediction — imported lead
- “By around 2020 the same capacity will be available for \$1,000”【22†L381-L389】
- Primary category — draft
- AI & software
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- AI / Computing
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Singularity Is Near* (2005)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 2005
- Target text — legacy
- ~2020
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- EXE-018
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- EXE-018
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: 2020 author-Q&A version located; brain-equivalence and budget/precision are not resolved.
— MERGE_SAME_SCOPE: 2020 author-Q&A version located; brain-equivalence and budget/precision are not resolved. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.