Human-level AI by the end of the 2020s
Target: see linked record
PENDING · At deadline: NOT DUE · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
K045 →Back to the scorecard
EXE-020/AI & software
“Computers will pass the Turing test by 2029”【22†L384-L387】【79†L692-L700】
i
Original intake · research history. This lead is preserved as imported. It is not scored or redirected. LINK FAMILY NOT EXACT DUPLICATE
Generic 2029 AI/Turing claims are related to but not identical with the 2002 detailed wager. Original-book wording still needs collation.
Outcome dispositions on the corrected source-matched criteria
Outcome judgments are completed on the linked source-matched criteria. Preserve the original wording/date and this reconciliation; do not represent a corrected scope as a verbatim import.
The specific Kurzweil–Kapor Turing-test wager
Target: see linked record
PENDING · At deadline: NOT DUE · By review: NOT FULFILLED
K023 →Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K045Human-level AI by the end of the 2020sK023The specific Kurzweil–Kapor Turing-test wager01
The original imported lead.
IMPORTED PARAPHRASE · NOT A VERIFIED QUOTATION
“Computers will pass the Turing test by 2029”【22†L384-L387】【79†L692-L700】
Singularity Is Near (2005) & Ray Kurzweil (1999)
2005 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
02
Timeline
PREDICTION MADE2005Unconfirmed source year
ORIGINAL TARGET2029No exact deadline used in statistics
FULL REALIZATION—No achievement year established
Outcome at original deadlineUNREVIEWED
Outcome at reviewUNREVIEWED
Supplied target wording: 2029. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
03
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
04
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 81
- Legacy identifier
- EXE-020
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- EXE-020
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- EXE-020
- Prediction — imported lead
- “Computers will pass the Turing test by 2029”【22†L384-L387】【79†L692-L700】
- Primary category — draft
- AI & software
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- AI / Turing
- Claimed source — legacy
- *Singularity Is Near* (2005) & *Ray Kurzweil (1999)*
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 2005
- Target text — legacy
- 2029
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- EXE-020
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- EXE-020
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: Generic 2029 AI/Turing claims are related to but not identical with the 2002 detailed wager. Original-book wording still needs collation.
— LINK_FAMILY_NOT_EXACT_DUPLICATE: Generic 2029 AI/Turing claims are related to but not identical with the 2002 detailed wager. Original-book wording still needs collation. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.