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- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"HIGH","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"HIGH","at_review":"HIGH"},"timing_confidence":"HIGH","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":1997,"at_deadline_rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.","at_review_rationale":"The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","evidence_source_ids":["O01"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":1998,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":1997,"at_deadline_rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.","at_review_rationale":"The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","evidence_source_ids":["O01"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":1998,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":1997,"at_deadline_rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.","at_review_rationale":"The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","evidence_source_ids":["O01"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":1998,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":1997,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"EXACT_EVENT","label":"1997; 1–3 years early across the cited 1998/2000 deadlines","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":[-3,-1]},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ATTRIBUTION_UNRESOLVED","verdict":"UNREVIEWED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"IBM documents the 1997 match victory. The intake alternates 1998 and 2000. The author’s retrospective names 1998, but the relevant original-edition passage was not obtained. Outcome is confirmed; the historical attribution and exact drift remain open.","first_full_achievement_year":1997,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"UNREVIEWED -> CORRECT: immaterial date conflict no longer blocks the outcome."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K001","slug":"k001-chess-champion-resolve-the-original-deadline","title":"Computer defeats the world chess champion","prediction_paraphrase":"A computer defeats the world chess champion.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"AI & software","tags":["chess","benchmark"],"subcategory":"Game-playing AI","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K001","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-001","DEC-001","EXE-001"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1990,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"UNRESOLVED_ORIGINAL_EDITION"},"target":{"text":"1998 in the author retrospective; 2000 in earlier summaries. Reference 1998; success invariant.","deadline_year":1998,"precision":"EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR","year_start":1998,"year_end":1998,"interpretation":"1998 in the author retrospective; 2000 in earlier summaries. Reference 1998; success invariant."},"source_verification":{"state":"ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"A machine wins a standard match against the reigning world chess champion; either cited 1998 or 2000 deadline suffices.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines.","at_review_rationale":"The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"CORRECT","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"IBM documents Deep Blue’s 1997 match win, before both candidate deadlines. The outcome remains a full success. Resolving the edition changes only whether it was one or three years early.","first_full_achievement_year":1997,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":[-3,-1],"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Overview, printed p. 5","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O01","locator":"Documents the 1997 match victory; not proof of the original date or wording of Kurzweil’s forecast.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Attribution to the broad chess forecast is strong; the exact original deadline is less secure. Do not publish a single precise drift.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-001","relation":"HOLD_ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-001","relation":"HOLD_ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT"},{"legacy_id":"EXE-001","relation":"HOLD_ATTRIBUTION_CONFLICT"}]}