- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Computing in wearable body ornaments is a common product/use category; watches count and every example need not be equally adopted.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached. By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2019,"at_deadline_rationale":"Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached.","at_review_rationale":"By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.","evidence_source_ids":["N01","N02","N25"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Both everyday clothing and a broad range of jewelry commonly embed computers.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"Smartwatches satisfy part of the list, but broadly computerized clothing and the full jewelry assortment are not comparably established.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"evidence_source_ids":["N01","N02","N25"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Computing in wearable body ornaments is a common product/use category; watches count and every example need not be equally adopted.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached. By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2019,"at_deadline_rationale":"Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached.","at_review_rationale":"By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.","evidence_source_ids":["N01","N02","N25"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2019,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"DOCUMENTED_BY","label":"Documented by 2019; after 2009, no later than 2019","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"SOURCE_CONFIRMED","verdict":"UNREVIEWED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"The original scope is stronger than “smartphones exist.” The retrospective relies partly on counting carried devices. Independent adoption evidence for literal clothing/jewelry integration has not been established here.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K003","slug":"k003-computers-embedded-in-clothing-and-jewelry","title":"Computers embedded in clothing and jewelry","prediction_paraphrase":"Clothing and jewelry commonly contain computers.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":["embedded computing","adoption"],"subcategory":"Wearables","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K003","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-005","DEC-011"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Computing in wearable body ornaments is a common product/use category; watches count and every example need not be equally adopted.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached.","at_review_rationale":"By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Wearable and embedded devices existed, but the 2009 common-use threshold was only partly reached. By the June 2019 US survey, 21% regularly wore a smartwatch or fitness tracker. That is common, not universal; it supports a late wearable-form-factor success.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2019,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Computer Itself, prediction 3, printed pp. 12–13","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N01","locator":"June 2019 US survey: 21% regularly wear one. Common does not mean majority, and US adult prevalence is not global prevalence.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N02","locator":"US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N25","locator":"ECG/AFib classification, hard-fall detection and emergency calling; ECG deployment corroborated by December 2018 release O22. Not diagnosis of all diseases or autonomous treatment.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"US wearable prevalence is a regional proxy. The reference treats the examples as an illustrative class; the fuller clothing-plus-jewelry reading remains partial.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-005","relation":"MERGE_SAME_SCOPE"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-011","relation":"MERGE_SAME_SCOPE"}]}