- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Typical users have at least twelve separately functional worn/carried computing devices linked in a body network.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks. Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks.","at_review_rationale":"Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.","evidence_source_ids":["N02","N01"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Typical users have at least twelve separately functional worn/carried computing devices linked in a body network.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks. Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks.","at_review_rationale":"Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.","evidence_source_ids":["N02","N01"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"People use several mutually connected personal devices and sensors.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Phone/watch/earbud ecosystems realize the body-network direction, but this drops the explicit twelve-device threshold.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Drops at-least-twelve threshold"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2021,"evidence_source_ids":["N02","N01"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"UNSCORABLE","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"Counting chips inside a phone is not the same as counting independently networked worn devices. The legacy paraphrase removed both the numerical threshold and body-LAN condition. No stable counting convention is specified.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K004","slug":"k004-at-least-a-dozen-body-networked-computers","title":"At least a dozen body-networked computers","prediction_paraphrase":"Typical people use at least twelve body-networked computers.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":["body-area networks","device counts"],"subcategory":"Wearables","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K004","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-006"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Typical users have at least twelve separately functional worn/carried computing devices linked in a body network.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks.","at_review_rationale":"Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Contemporary device-ownership surveys show a handful of gadgets, not typical twelve-node body networks. Phones, watches and earbuds create useful small networks, but not typical twelve-device ensembles. This is a medium-confidence prevalence judgment, not a claim that no enthusiast has twelve devices.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Computer Itself, prediction 5, printed pp. 14–15","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N02","locator":"US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N01","locator":"June 2019 US survey: 21% regularly wear one. Common does not mean majority, and US adult prevalence is not global prevalence.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"A phone’s internal chips are not counted as separate body-LAN computers; that redefinition would make the original list of personal functions misleading. No global body-LAN census is available.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-006","relation":"RESTORE_THRESHOLD"}]}