- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"The pocket/worn personal computers in the surrounding passage generally use electronic storage rather than rotating media.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009. This remains a full success for that device class. 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Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”","evidence_source_ids":["N03","O07"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Apply the solid-state/no-moving-parts claim to portable PCs including laptops, not just the pocket/worn context.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"Hard drives were common in 2009 laptops; current widespread SSDs fulfill storage substitution, but a literal no-moving-parts condition still conflicts with many cooling fans.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_POPULATION","documented_by_year":null,"evidence_source_ids":["N03","O07"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"The pocket/worn personal computers in the surrounding passage generally use electronic storage rather than rotating media.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009. This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2009,"at_deadline_rationale":"Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009.","at_review_rationale":"This remains a full success for that device class. 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Apple’s 2008 Air still offered a hard disk as well as an SSD option. A sales/installed-base denominator is needed.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K005","slug":"k005-personal-devices-largely-without-moving-parts","title":"Personal devices largely without moving parts","prediction_paraphrase":"Most personal computing devices have no moving parts.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":["solid state","moving parts"],"subcategory":"Storage and device design","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K005","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-007"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"The pocket/worn personal computers in the surrounding passage generally use electronic storage rather than rotating media.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009.","at_review_rationale":"This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"CORRECT","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Flash-based phones and small music players fit the devices described in the passage by 2009. This remains a full success for that device class. Buttons, haptic motors and exceptions do not defeat “for the most part.”","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2009,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Computer Itself, prediction 6, printed p. 15","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N03","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O07","locator":"","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"The reference does not extend a contextual claim about truly personal devices to servers. Current cumulative fulfillment does not mean every laptop or computer is fanless.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-007","relation":"CANONICALIZE"}]}