- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Across newly sold portable computing devices, including smartphones and tablets, most lack physical keyboards.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then. By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"at_deadline_rationale":"Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then.","at_review_rationale":"By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.","evidence_source_ids":["O07","N02","N53"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Conventional notebook/laptop computers mostly lose their physical keyboards.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"That narrower population does not fulfill the prediction. It is a population sensitivity, not the only legitimate meaning of portable computer.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_POPULATION","documented_by_year":null,"evidence_source_ids":["O07","N02","N53"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Across newly sold portable computing devices, including smartphones and tablets, most lack physical keyboards.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then. By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"at_deadline_rationale":"Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then.","at_review_rationale":"By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.","evidence_source_ids":["O07","N02","N53"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2015,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"EDITORIAL_ERA_BOUND","label":"By the mid-2010s on the stated market reading; exact threshold year not established","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"bound_is_editorial":true},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"SOURCE_CONFIRMED","verdict":"UNREVIEWED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"The input changed keyboard absence into touch/voice use. Those are not equivalent. The required 2009 device-population comparison is still missing.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K006","slug":"k006-most-portable-computers-lack-keyboards","title":"Most portable computers lack keyboards","prediction_paraphrase":"Most portable computers have no keyboards.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":["keyboards","portable computing"],"subcategory":"Input hardware","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K006","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-008"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Across newly sold portable computing devices, including smartphones and tablets, most lack physical keyboards.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then.","at_review_rationale":"By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Touchscreen portables were real by 2009, but widespread keyboard-equipped phones and notebooks make full majority fulfillment unpersuasive then. By the mid-2010s, touch-first smartphones dominated portable computing unit volumes. Gartner’s 2013 smartphone/platform mix supports the transition; the exact crossover is not established.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2015,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Computer Itself, prediction 7, printed p. 16","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O07","locator":"","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N02","locator":"US survey, seven broad device categories; median three categories. A proxy for device ownership, not a direct census of worn processors or 2009 body networks.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N53","locator":"968 million smartphones; Android plus iOS dominated. Inferring physical-keyboard-free portable computing requires a population definition, not simply counting all feature phones.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Physical keyboards, not on-screen keyboards. Reference is new-device unit mix, not lifetime installed computers; 2015 is a conservative documented-era estimate with medium timing confidence, not a counted exact crossover.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-008","relation":"CORRECT_SCOPE"}]}