- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"More than half of generated text comes from continuous-speech dictation.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009. Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","O10","N46"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"More than half of generated text comes from continuous-speech dictation.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009. Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","O10","N46"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Accurate everyday dictation and speech input become ordinary computer features.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Speech features and assistants fulfill the capability reading, but capability is not majority use.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Majority-of-text threshold"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"evidence_source_ids":["P01","O10","N46"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"WRONG_MISSED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Kurzweil’s own retrospective expressly concedes the majority threshold was not reached. That is direct evidence of the historical deadline miss, though not an independent global usage survey. Subsequent speech-recognition progress cannot retroactively make 2009 an on-time hit.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K011","slug":"k011-dictation-creates-the-majority-of-text","title":"Dictation creates the majority of text","prediction_paraphrase":"Speech dictation produces most text.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"AI & software","tags":["dictation","text input","adoption"],"subcategory":"Speech recognition","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K011","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-013"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"More than half of generated text comes from continuous-speech dictation.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"The author’s own retrospective acknowledges that dictation had not become the majority input method in 2009. Dictation is effective and widely available, but typing and non-dictated text remain central. The majority claim is still not supported; this assessment is an inference, not a global text-volume census.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Computer Itself, prediction 14, printed p. 22","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O10","locator":"Announcement; retail availability October 14. This is NOT the first-ever voice assistant, nor the first standalone Siri release.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N46","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"AI-generated text is not speech-dictated text. Product availability alone is not evidence for the quantitative original. Current miss has medium confidence because global composition shares are not directly measured.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-013","relation":"RESTORE_THRESHOLD"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-010","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"}]}