- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Both glasses and contact-lens display forms deliver the predicted retinal imagery.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard. Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard.","at_review_rationale":"Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.","evidence_source_ids":["N04","N05"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2010,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Both glasses and contact-lens display forms deliver the predicted retinal imagery.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard. Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard.","at_review_rationale":"Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.","evidence_source_ids":["N04","N05"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2010,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Head-worn retinal/near-eye displays; contact lenses are treated as an illustrative alternative.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Practical head-worn displays existed by 2004; the technology direction was right.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Contact-lens implementation"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2004,"evidence_source_ids":["N04","N05"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2010,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"SOURCE_CONFIRMED","verdict":"UNREVIEWED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"The intake mixed 2010 and 2015. The retrospective treats “beginning of the next decade” flexibly. Neither a new exact 2015 deadline nor an automatic 2010 failure should be imported.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K015","slug":"k015-glasses-and-contact-lens-displays-in-the-2010s","title":"Glasses and contact-lens displays in the 2010s","prediction_paraphrase":"Eyeglass and contact-lens displays deliver retinal imagery.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Interfaces & virtual worlds","tags":["contact lenses","AR"],"subcategory":"Retinal displays","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K015","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-016"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":2005,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2010 in the author retrospective’s Singularity Is Near forecast grouping; wider prose says early 2010s.","deadline_year":2010,"precision":"EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR","year_start":2010,"year_end":2010,"interpretation":"2010 in the author retrospective’s Singularity Is Near forecast grouping; wider prose says early 2010s."},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Both glasses and contact-lens display forms deliver the predicted retinal imagery.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard.","at_review_rationale":"Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"PARTIAL","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Industrial retinal head-worn displays provided part of the capability by 2010; display contacts did not meet the same practical-use standard. Glasses/headsets remain the substantial realization, while the contact-lens half of the compound is not comparably established.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Singularity Is Near predictions for 2010, prediction 4, printed p. 131","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N04","locator":"Microvision-issued release hosted by The Auto Channel: actual industrial deployment. Head-worn see-through retinal display; not ordinary prescription-glasses styling or mass consumer adoption.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N05","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-016","relation":"HOLD_DATE_AND_SCOPE"}]}