- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Small personal audio devices create a convincing spatial auditory environment.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete. Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2021,"at_deadline_rationale":"Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete.","at_review_rationale":"Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","N57","N06"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2010,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Tiny ultrasound/interference-based emitters physically project localized audible sound as the explanatory mechanism describes.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"Spatial earbuds use conventional transducers and signal processing. They do not complete the specified physical projection mechanism.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"evidence_source_ids":["P01","N57","N06"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2010,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Small personal audio devices create a convincing spatial auditory environment.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete. Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2021,"at_deadline_rationale":"Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete.","at_review_rationale":"Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","N57","N06"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2010,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2021,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"DOCUMENTED_BY","label":"Documented by 2021; after 2010, no later than 2021","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"SOURCE_CONFIRMED","verdict":"UNREVIEWED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"The earlier LRAD/bone-conduction examples were not evidence of the complete claimed device. Attribution is located but performance, form factor and deadline still need resolution.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K016","slug":"k016-tiny-devices-project-auditory-environments","title":"Tiny devices project auditory environments","prediction_paraphrase":"Tiny devices project spatial auditory environments.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Interfaces & virtual worlds","tags":["auditory projection"],"subcategory":"Spatial audio","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K016","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["AUD-017"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":2005,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2010 in the retrospective’s grouped early-2010s forecasts.","deadline_year":2010,"precision":"EDITORIAL_REFERENCE_YEAR","year_start":2010,"year_end":2010,"interpretation":"2010 in the retrospective’s grouped early-2010s forecasts."},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Small personal audio devices create a convincing spatial auditory environment.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete.","at_review_rationale":"Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Audio spatialization and directed-sound hardware existed by 2010, but the tiny ordinary personal implementation was incomplete. Small AirPods with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio are documented by 2021. This meets the perceptual function, not the ultrasonic projection mechanism emphasized in the explanatory discussion.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2021,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"The Singularity Is Near predictions for 2010, prediction 5, printed pp. 131–132","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N57","locator":"Retail availability October 26, 2021; small earbuds with dynamic head-tracked spatial audio. Establishes a documented-by year, not the first such device.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N06","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Functional audio success is not a claim of ultrasound projection. 2021 is a documented-by date; no exact first commercial year is asserted.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-017","relation":"REJECT_BAD_OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}]}