- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"HIGH","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"HIGH","at_review":"HIGH"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.","at_review_rationale":"CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","evidence_source_ids":["O16","O17"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.","at_review_rationale":"CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","evidence_source_ids":["O16","O17"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.","at_review_rationale":"CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","evidence_source_ids":["O16","O17"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"WRONG_MISSED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Final US life expectancy was 78.8 in 2019 and 79.0 in 2024. Even this high-income-country example does not support the general claim. The judgment is explicitly under the conventional period-life-expectancy reading.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K027","slug":"k027-life-expectancy-over-100","title":"Life expectancy over 100","prediction_paraphrase":"Expected human lifespan exceeds 100 years.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Longevity","tags":["period versus cohort"],"subcategory":"Population life expectancy","claim_type":"SOCIAL_OR_POPULATION_OUTCOME","family_id":"F-LIFE-EXPECTANCY","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["EXE-013"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION"},"target":{"text":"2019","deadline_year":2019,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2019,"year_end":2019,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Ordinary population life expectancy/expected lifespan exceeds 100 years, not a few individuals living past 100.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100.","at_review_rationale":"CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Observed 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8 years, far below 100. CDC’s 2024 estimate is 79.0 years. Cohort hopes or exceptional centenarians do not establish ordinary life expectancy over 100.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"Health care in 2019","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O16","locator":"Final US period life expectancy for 2019: 78.8 years. A national period measure, not a prediction of a newborn cohort’s eventual lifespan.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O17","locator":"Final US period life expectancy for 2024: 79.0 years. Do not call this a 2026 observation.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Period life expectancy is the reference measurable interpretation. A forecast about an unspecified future cohort would need its own model; it is not evidence of present achievement.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"EXE-013","relation":"SPLIT_AND_QUARANTINE_UNLOCATED_CLAUSE"}]}