- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"HIGH","at_review":"HIGH"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"A widely available booth convincingly reproduces whole-body pressure, temperature, texture and wetness.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019. Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019.","at_review_rationale":"Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.","evidence_source_ids":["N28"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"A widely available booth convincingly reproduces whole-body pressure, temperature, texture and wetness.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019. Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019.","at_review_rationale":"Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.","evidence_source_ids":["N28"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"VR systems provide useful partial haptic feedback.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"Haptic feedback is real, but treating any vibration as the full prediction would discard its central specification.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Whole-body and all-sensation fidelity"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"evidence_source_ids":["N28"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"SOURCE_CONFIRMED","verdict":"UNREVIEWED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_ASSESSED","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"Audiovisual headsets are not evidence of this all-body tactile outcome. The imported broad “VR indistinguishable” wording hid the actual test. No verified full-achievement date is supplied.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K031","slug":"k031-convincing-full-body-tactile-virtual-reality","title":"Convincing full-body tactile virtual reality","prediction_paraphrase":"Widely available booths reproduce the full tactile experience.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Interfaces & virtual worlds","tags":["full-body sensation","VR"],"subcategory":"Haptics","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K031","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["DEC-017"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION"},"target":{"text":"2019","deadline_year":2019,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2019,"year_end":2019,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"A widely available booth convincingly reproduces whole-body pressure, temperature, texture and wetness.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019.","at_review_rationale":"Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Limited vibration/force feedback did not constitute the specified full tactile environment in 2019. Recent finger-scale thermal/pressure research remains materially short of an all-enveloping, all-facet consumer booth.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"Personal relationships in 2019: total-touch environment","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N28","locator":"Local finger-scale multimodal haptics; not whole-body, all-sensation realism. Preprint status retained.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"A substantial gap in a central all-enveloping capability earns MISSED, not automatic partial credit for a related component.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"DEC-017","relation":"RESTORE_MODALITY"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-028","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"}]}