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- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Multilayer active circuitry moves from experiments into ordinary semiconductor products.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009. Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"at_deadline_rationale":"Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","N12"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Multilayer active circuitry moves from experiments into ordinary semiconductor products.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009. Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"at_deadline_rationale":"Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","N12"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Include stacked dies and specialized sensor/MEMS structures as 3D chips.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"The author’s retrospective cites pre-2009 commercial examples under this expansive definition. On-time success is plausible on that reading; independent prevalence evidence is thinner.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Definition includes stacked/specialized chip structures"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2009,"evidence_source_ids":["P01","N12"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2015,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"EDITORIAL_ERA_BOUND","label":"By the mid-2010s on the stated market reading; exact threshold year not established","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"bound_is_editorial":true},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K051","slug":"k051-3d-integrated-circuits-become-common","title":"3D integrated circuits become common","prediction_paraphrase":"3D integrated circuits become common","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K051","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Multilayer active circuitry moves from experiments into ordinary semiconductor products.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Early stacked/specialized devices made the direction real, but a broad transition to genuinely three-dimensional circuitry was only partial in 2009. Samsung’s mass-produced 3D V-NAND from 2013 establishes commercial multilayer circuits. The word “common” need not mean every processor has become 3D.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2015,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"P01 printed p.27, Computers #19; P02 2009 computing section","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N12","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"2015 is a conservative commercial-era bound, not a measured majority-market crossover. V-NAND is multilayer storage, not self-organizing molecular logic.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[]}