- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"A roughly $1,000 PC can supply about 10^12 peak single-precision operations per second, counting its graphics processor.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC. This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2009,"at_deadline_rationale":"AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC.","at_review_rationale":"This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.","evidence_source_ids":["N54","N09"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"The entire PC sustains a teraflop on a specified general-purpose benchmark, rather than adding peak GPU arithmetic.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Peak board specifications do not establish the stricter 2009 system benchmark. Later consumer hardware has ample headroom, so the narrower practical-throughput reading is late.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Peak versus sustained general-purpose benchmark"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2020,"evidence_source_ids":["N54","N09"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"A roughly $1,000 PC can supply about 10^12 peak single-precision operations per second, counting its graphics processor.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC. This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2009,"at_deadline_rationale":"AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC.","at_review_rationale":"This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.","evidence_source_ids":["N54","N09"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2009,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"DOCUMENTED_BY","label":"Documented by 2009","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K052","slug":"k052-1-000-pcs-reach-one-teraflop","title":"$1,000 PCs reach one teraflop","prediction_paraphrase":"$1,000 PCs reach one teraflop","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K052","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"A roughly $1,000 PC can supply about 10^12 peak single-precision operations per second, counting its graphics processor.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC.","at_review_rationale":"This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"CORRECT","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"AMD’s 2008 $199–$299 GPU generation supplied about 1–1.2 TFLOPS; the remaining budget could accommodate an ordinary host PC. This is a reasonable numerical hardware hit. It is not a claim that every program sustains a teraflop or that GPU and CPU work are interchangeable.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2009,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"P01 printed p.29, Computers #21; P02 opening 2009 paragraph","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N54","locator":"Italian reproduction of AMD June 25 release: HD 4850/4870 availability, FP32 peak and $199/$299 suggested prices. An editor-inferred sub-$1000 PC budget is not a measured whole-system benchmark.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N09","locator":"RTX 3080 launch price $699 and roughly 30 FP32 shader TFLOPS. Tensor, ray-tracing and shader operations are not interchangeable.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Sub-$1,000 system feasibility is an explicit cost-budget inference, not a retrieved exact 2008 shopping receipt. Current benchmark reading has medium confidence; arithmetic precision is visible.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[]}