- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Internet volunteers pool unused computation into virtual parallel systems reaching the stated approximately 20-petaflop scale.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target. Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2020,"at_deadline_rationale":"Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target.","at_review_rationale":"Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","N32"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Internet volunteers pool unused computation into virtual parallel systems reaching the stated approximately 20-petaflop scale.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target. Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2020,"at_deadline_rationale":"Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target.","at_review_rationale":"Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.","evidence_source_ids":["P01","N32"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Distributed volunteer computing is an established useful architecture without the brain-scale throughput threshold.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"This architectural direction was fulfilled before 2009.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["20-petaflop threshold"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2009,"evidence_source_ids":["P01","N32"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2020,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"DOCUMENTED_BY","label":"Documented by 2020; after 2009, no later than 2020","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K053","slug":"k053-idle-internet-pcs-form-virtual-supercomputers","title":"Idle Internet PCs form virtual supercomputers","prediction_paraphrase":"Idle Internet PCs form virtual supercomputers","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"K053","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_RETROSPECTIVE_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Internet volunteers pool unused computation into virtual parallel systems reaching the stated approximately 20-petaflop scale.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target.","at_review_rationale":"Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Volunteer computing was already real, but the 2010 retrospective’s cited throughput was below the 20-petaflop target. Folding@home’s documented 2020 exascale aggregate easily exceeds that numerical threshold. It remains distributed task throughput, not a single brain emulator.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2020,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"P01 printed p.30, Computers #23","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Official author archive. Cover says October 2010, but the available file contains later updates. Reprinted forecast passages are used for attribution; the author’s favorable self-grades are not independent outcome evidence. Original book editions were not inspected. Page locators below are PRINTED pages, not PDF viewer indices.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N32","locator":"Project retrospectively reports 2.4 exaFLOPS peak in 2020; aggregate application throughput, not one shared-memory brain emulator or LINPACK score.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[]}