- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Online purchase transactions dominate ordinary consumer commerce; retail sales value is the stated empirical proxy.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation. The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation.","at_review_rationale":"The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.","evidence_source_ids":["N30","N31"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Online purchase transactions dominate ordinary consumer commerce; retail sales value is the stated empirical proxy.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation. The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation.","at_review_rationale":"The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.","evidence_source_ids":["N30","N31"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Many forms of commercial transactions are digitally processed, including offline-origin transactions.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Digital transaction handling is widespread, but this changes online purchasing into electronic processing and supplies no comparable majority-count denominator.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Online purchasing versus electronic processing","Consumer retail versus all financial activity"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"evidence_source_ids":["N30","N31"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K059","slug":"k059-at-least-half-of-transactions-occur-online","title":"At least half of transactions occur online","prediction_paraphrase":"At least half of transactions occur online","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Economy & society","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K059","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Online purchase transactions dominate ordinary consumer commerce; retail sales value is the stated empirical proxy.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation.","at_review_rationale":"The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"US retail e-commerce was only about 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, far from a half-share consumer-commerce interpretation. The 2026 Q2 US share was 17.1%, still below half. This does not decide whether a different denominator including interbank, stock-market or B2B messages might pass.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"P02 Business in 2009, first bullet","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N30","locator":"2009 retail e-commerce share about 3.7% by value. US consumer retail proxy, not all worldwide transactions or number of payments.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N31","locator":"Second quarter 2026 e-commerce share 17.1% of retail sales by value. Not B2B, securities trading, or a count of all transactions.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"This is an explicit proxy-based conditional miss, not a false claim to measure all global transactions. Value share differs from transaction count. Reference confidence is medium; display that limitation next to the verdict.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[]}