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- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"HIGH","at_review":"HIGH"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Three-dimensional carbon-nanotube lattices are a prevalent computing-circuit technology.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture. Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. 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Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture.","at_review_rationale":"Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.","evidence_source_ids":["N13","N10"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Three-dimensional semiconductor structures become an important commercial technology regardless of material.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"3D NAND realizes that relaxed direction, but silicon multilayer storage is not nanotube-lattice computation.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Carbon-nanotube material and lattice architecture"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2019,"evidence_source_ids":["N13","N10"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K071","slug":"k071-carbon-nanotube-circuitry-becomes-prevalent","title":"Carbon-nanotube circuitry becomes prevalent","prediction_paraphrase":"Carbon-nanotube circuitry becomes prevalent","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K071","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2019","deadline_year":2019,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2019,"year_end":2019,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Three-dimensional carbon-nanotube lattices are a prevalent computing-circuit technology.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture.","at_review_rationale":"Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"MIT’s 2019 carbon-nanotube processor was a research prototype, not the prevalent industrial circuit architecture. Carbon-nanotube research is not evidence of dominant production adoption. The forecast’s material choice was not realized by ordinary silicon scaling.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"P02 2019 computing, same paragraph as rotating memories","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N13","locator":"Research prototype with more than 14,000 carbon-nanotube transistors, not commercial prevalence.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N10","locator":"10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[]}