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- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"More than half of learning is supplied by intelligent simulated teachers, rather than human instruction or ordinary learning resources.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers. AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers.","at_review_rationale":"AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.","evidence_source_ids":["N33","N45","N22","N46"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"More than half of learning is supplied by intelligent simulated teachers, rather than human instruction or ordinary learning resources.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers. AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers.","at_review_rationale":"AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.","evidence_source_ids":["N33","N45","N22","N46"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Digital software becomes a major aid to learning, including online classes and AI assistance.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Digital learning access is widespread, while this broader criterion relaxes both intelligence and majority requirements.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Most learning","Simulated intelligent teacher"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2022,"evidence_source_ids":["N33","N45","N22","N46"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K078","slug":"k078-ai-tutors-deliver-most-learning","title":"AI tutors deliver most learning","prediction_paraphrase":"AI tutors deliver most learning","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Media, education & culture","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K078","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2019","deadline_year":2019,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2019,"year_end":2019,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"More than half of learning is supplied by intelligent simulated teachers, rather than human instruction or ordinary learning resources.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers.","at_review_rationale":"AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"2019 classroom and distance learning did not predominantly use intelligent simulated teachers. AI tutoring is a growing capability, but teacher-based education and other learning remain central. A video lecture or web page is not automatically an intelligent tutor.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"P02 Education in 2019, first bullet","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N33","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N45","locator":"96% of public schools provided devices to students who needed them by 2021–22; 23% assigned take-home devices to all students before COVID. Not proof every student owned a sub-pound tablet.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N22","locator":"Institutional context on continuing human teachers, shortages and AI assistance. Normative guidance is not a statistical census of all learning hours.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N46","locator":"Primary institutional, research, or issuer source. Dates in the claim refer to the observation or product event, not the review date.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"There is no global all-learning-hours census. The miss is a reasoned medium-confidence assessment of the central majority claim, not an invented precise share.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[]}