- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Cleaning/chores robots are near-ubiquitous household equipment, not merely a successful appliance category.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence. Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence.","at_review_rationale":"Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.","evidence_source_ids":["N21","N52"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Cleaning/chores robots are near-ubiquitous household equipment, not merely a successful appliance category.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","rationale":"IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence. Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence.","at_review_rationale":"Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.","evidence_source_ids":["N21","N52"],"verdict":"PARTIAL","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Reliable household cleaning robots are a commonplace commercial appliance category.","at_deadline":"FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Substantial sales and established manufacturers support this normal market-language reading of widespread, without literal near-universality.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Near-ubiquitous household penetration","Broad chores range"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2019,"evidence_source_ids":["N21","N52"],"verdict":"CORRECT","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[],"is_new_in_v03":true,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K080","slug":"k080-reliable-household-robots-become-ubiquitous","title":"Reliable household robots become ubiquitous","prediction_paraphrase":"Reliable household robots become ubiquitous","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Robotics & transportation","tags":[],"subcategory":"","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"K080","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"NEW_SOURCE_EXTRACTION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_OR_RETROSPECTIVE","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_1999"},"target":{"text":"2019","deadline_year":2019,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2019,"year_end":2019,"interpretation":"End of named target year."},"source_verification":{"state":"AUTHOR_ADAPTATION_CHECKED","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Cleaning/chores robots are near-ubiquitous household equipment, not merely a successful appliance category.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence.","at_review_rationale":"Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"PARTIAL","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"IFR’s 23.2 million consumer/domestic robot sales in 2019 show a large market, not near-universal household presence. Useful cleaning robots are established, but near-ubiquity across households and the broad chores range are not demonstrated.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"P02 Business in 2019, household-robots bullet","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N21","locator":"23.2 million consumer/domestic service robots sold in 2019, +34%. Annual sales are not household penetration or a count of robot-owning homes.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N52","locator":"January 2010 retrospective on robots launched in 2002 and already commercially established in the 2000s; do not shift the threshold by one year just because the tally was announced in January.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"This forecast actually uses “ubiquitous,” unlike K061’s much weaker emergence claim. The alternative commonplace reading is visible because ordinary usage of ubiquitous can be rhetorical.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[]}