Augmented reality overlays (e.g. AR apps) will be common by 2010.
Do not treat Pokémon Go 2016 as the first AR overlay. Earlier product evidence must be checked.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
AR overlays are commonly used by 2010.
Conditional verdict: LATE
At original deadline: PARTLY FULFILLED · By review: FULFILLED
Industrial head-worn overlays existed before 2010; the 2010 common-use claim was only partial. AR-enabled consumer interfaces later make overlays ordinary as a product category. This does not require most people to own AR glasses.
CORRECT by 2010 for available practical overlays; source K018 uses the weaker availability criterion.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
N04N05N71Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K018Augmented-reality overlaysDisposition sources: P01
The original imported lead.
Augmented reality overlays (e.g. AR apps) will be common by 2010.
2005 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
Timeline
Supplied target wording: 2010. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 20
- Legacy identifier
- AUD-019
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- AUD-019
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- AUD-019
- Prediction — imported lead
- Augmented reality overlays (e.g. AR apps) will be common by 2010.
- Primary category — draft
- Interfaces & virtual worlds
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- AR/VR
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Singularity Is Near* (2005)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 2005
- Target text — legacy
- 2010
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- AUD-019
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- AUD-019
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: Do not treat Pokémon Go 2016 as the first AR overlay. Earlier product evidence must be checked.
— HOLD_FIRST_DATE: Do not treat Pokémon Go 2016 as the first AR overlay. Earlier product evidence must be checked. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.