Self-driving cars common by 2009
Keep intelligent-highway mechanism and ordinary road qualification; reject generic all-cars shorthand.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
Autonomous cars are common on ordinary roads by 2009.
Conditional verdict: PARTIAL
At original deadline: NOT FULFILLED · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
DARPA challenge demonstrations are not common road use. Geofenced public robotaxi service later gives meaningful partial realization; it does not satisfy common autonomy on ordinary roads generally.
LATE for publicly available driverless rides in a defined service area, documented in 2020.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
O15N07O14Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K026Automated intelligent highwaysDisposition sources: P01
The original imported lead.
Self-driving cars common by 2009
1999 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
Timeline
Supplied target wording: 2009. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 45
- Legacy identifier
- DEC-014
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- DEC-014
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- DEC-014
- Prediction — imported lead
- Self-driving cars common by 2009
- Primary category — draft
- Robotics & transportation
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- Robotics
- Claimed source — legacy
- Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 1999
- Target text — legacy
- 2009
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- DEC-014
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- DEC-014
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: Keep intelligent-highway mechanism and ordinary road qualification; reject generic all-cars shorthand.
— CORRECT_SCOPE: Keep intelligent-highway mechanism and ordinary road qualification; reject generic all-cars shorthand. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.