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A closed-course DARPA challenge was not public highway deployment. Later onboard-autonomy robotaxis are not automatically the same infrastructure mechanism.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K026","slug":"k026-automated-intelligent-highways","title":"Automated intelligent highways","prediction_paraphrase":"Cars lock into automated highway control systems.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Robotics & transportation","tags":["infrastructure control"],"subcategory":"Intelligent highways","claim_type":"CAPABILITY","family_id":"F-AUTOMATED-DRIVING","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["DEC-014"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Ordinary intelligent highways accept a vehicle into automatic road-control infrastructure while local roads remain conventional.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009.","at_review_rationale":"Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"PARTIAL","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Demonstrations of autonomy did not create the forecast’s functioning highway-control network in 2009. Automated vehicle capability has advanced substantially, but Waymo’s onboard autonomy is not the forecast’s road-embedded highway architecture.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Business and Economics, prediction 18, printed p. 82","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O15","locator":"Closed-course research challenge, not everyday automated public-highway infrastructure.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N07","locator":"Geofenced Phoenix service, not all roads, universal ownership, or road-embedded guidance infrastructure.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O14","locator":"Live guidance checked for this review. Describes limited operating areas for automated fleets and driver-attention requirements of consumer vehicles; not a historical 2009 market census.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-028","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-022","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-009","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-014","relation":"CORRECT_SCOPE"},{"legacy_id":"EXE-004","relation":"QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED"}]}