Autonomous vehicles will be common by 2015.
The claimed 2015 deadline was not established. Related 2009 highway and 2019 majority-driving versions are kept separately.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
Autonomous cars are common by 2015.
Conditional verdict: PARTIAL
At original deadline: PARTLY FULFILLED · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
Prototype and constrained capability existed, but common ordinary-road autonomy was not established by 2015. Public geofenced driverless service later supplies meaningful partial realization. Availability in selected cities is a broader late success.
LATE, documented by 2020, for public commercially available fully driverless rides in a defined service area.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
O15N07O14Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K026Automated intelligent highwaysK047Automated systems eliminate most human drivingThe original imported lead.
Autonomous vehicles will be common by 2015.
1999 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
Timeline
Supplied target wording: 2015. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 29
- Legacy identifier
- AUD-028
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- AUD-028
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- AUD-028
- Prediction — imported lead
- Autonomous vehicles will be common by 2015.
- Primary category — draft
- Robotics & transportation
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- Transport
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Age of Spiritual Machines* (1999) [ASM pg 150]
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 1999
- Target text — legacy
- 2015
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- AUD-028
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- AUD-028
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: The claimed 2015 deadline was not established. Related 2009 highway and 2019 majority-driving versions are kept separately.
— QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY: The claimed 2015 deadline was not established. Related 2009 highway and 2019 majority-driving versions are kept separately. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.