- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"HIGH","at_review":"HIGH"},"timing_confidence":"LOW","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Automation removes more than half of human driving, retaining the forecast’s “most” threshold.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers. Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers.","at_review_rationale":"Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.","evidence_source_ids":["O14","N07","N24"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Automation removes more than half of human driving, retaining the forecast’s “most” threshold.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers. Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers.","at_review_rationale":"Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.","evidence_source_ids":["O14","N07","N24"],"verdict":"WRONG","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Fully driverless travel becomes a real commercial service in some cities.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Public Waymo service realizes this weaker capability in 2020, without meeting the original majority threshold.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Most driving","Smart-road architecture"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2020,"evidence_source_ids":["O14","N07","N24"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2019,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Not fully realized by 2026-10-15; overdue, not an observed delay","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"WRONG_MISSED","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Even NHTSA’s current guidance describes limited automated operating areas and driver-attention requirements for consumer vehicles. Waymo’s 2026 expansion confirms real driverless service, but not displacement of most human driving. These later records strongly contradict treating the 2019 majority claim as achieved.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K047","slug":"k047-automated-systems-eliminate-most-human-driving","title":"Automated systems eliminate most human driving","prediction_paraphrase":"Smart roads and automation eliminate most human driving.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Robotics & transportation","tags":["majority displacement"],"subcategory":"Driving automation","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"F-AUTOMATED-DRIVING","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"ADDED_PRIMARY_SOURCE","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION"},"target":{"text":"2019","deadline_year":2019,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2019,"year_end":2019,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Automation removes more than half of human driving, retaining the forecast’s “most” threshold.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers.","at_review_rationale":"Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"WRONG","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"2019 road transport still relied predominantly on human drivers. Public driverless services are a real advance, but do not establish that most driving has been eliminated across the road system.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"Business in 2019: smart roads","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O14","locator":"Live guidance checked for this review. Describes limited operating areas for automated fleets and driver-attention requirements of consumer vehicles; not a historical 2009 market census.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N07","locator":"Geofenced Phoenix service, not all roads, universal ownership, or road-embedded guidance infrastructure.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N24","locator":"2021 global annual road deaths 1.19 million; about 5% below 2010. These are observed-year figures, not invented 2026 counts.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-028","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-022","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"}]}