“By 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence”【22†L381-L389】
The 2005 Q&A uses a different operations estimate/end-of-decade language. Do not merge it into the 1999 20-petaflop target or call throughput intelligence.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
A supercomputer matches the numerical compute budget proposed for a human brain by 2010.
Conditional verdict: LATE
At original deadline: NOT FULFILLED · By review: FULFILLED
On the explicit numerical hardware-budget reading, the 2009/2010 horizon was early and later TOP500 machines exceed it. This is not proof of software intelligence or emulation. Exact first crossing varies with 10 versus 20 PFLOPS and peak versus sustained measurements.
Documented by 2013; depending on numeric threshold and metric the first crossing is earlier. No exact drift assigned.
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
O18O19O20P04Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K033Supercomputers reach 20 quadrillion calculations per secondK025A thousand-dollar brain-capacity computer in 2020Disposition sources: P04
The original imported lead.
“By 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence”【22†L381-L389】
2005 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
Timeline
Supplied target wording: 2010. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 78
- Legacy identifier
- EXE-017
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- EXE-017
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- EXE-017
- Prediction — imported lead
- “By 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence”【22†L381-L389】
- Primary category — draft
- AI & software
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- AI / Computing
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Singularity Is Near* (2005)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 2005
- Target text — legacy
- 2010
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- EXE-017
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- EXE-017
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: The 2005 Q&A uses a different operations estimate/end-of-decade language. Do not merge it into the 1999 20-petaflop target or call throughput intelligence.
— QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY: The 2005 Q&A uses a different operations estimate/end-of-decade language. Do not merge it into the 1999 20-petaflop target or call throughput intelligence. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.