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- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"HIGH","at_review":"HIGH"},"timing_confidence":"HIGH","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"A supercomputer sustains approximately 20 petaflops on a named numerical benchmark; this is the explicit hardware-throughput proxy.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target. Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2013,"at_deadline_rationale":"The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target.","at_review_rationale":"Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.","evidence_source_ids":["O18","O19","O20"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"A supercomputer sustains approximately 20 petaflops on a named numerical benchmark; this is the explicit hardware-throughput proxy.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target. Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2013,"at_deadline_rationale":"The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target.","at_review_rationale":"Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.","evidence_source_ids":["O18","O19","O20"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Use advertised peak arithmetic rather than sustained LINPACK.","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Titan’s peak exceeded 20 petaflops in 2012, producing a three-year rather than four-year delay.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":["Sustained versus theoretical peak throughput"],"kind":"ALTERNATIVE_READING","documented_by_year":2012,"evidence_source_ids":["O18","O19","O20"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":2013,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"EXACT_EVENT","label":"2013; +4 years","drift_years":4,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED_UNDER_STATED_HARDWARE_PROXY","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"November 2009’s leader was below the threshold. Listed peak performance exceeded it by 2012; publicly listed measured LINPACK performance exceeded it in 2013. This supports a qualified hardware timing miss, with a 3–4-year interval depending on the metric.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2013,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":[3,4],"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Qualified hardware-proxy assessment; not a verified brain-capacity equivalence. Excluded from default strict aggregate."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K033","slug":"k033-supercomputers-reach-20-quadrillion-calculations-per-second","title":"Supercomputers reach 20 quadrillion calculations per second","prediction_paraphrase":"Supercomputers reach approximately 2×10^16 calculations per second.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":["operations per second","FLOPS proxy","timing interval"],"subcategory":"Supercomputer performance","claim_type":"PERFORMANCE_COST","family_id":"F-BRAIN-COMPUTE","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["EXE-012"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"A supercomputer sustains approximately 20 petaflops on a named numerical benchmark; this is the explicit hardware-throughput proxy.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target.","at_review_rationale":"Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"The November 2009 TOP500 leader was under 2 petaflops on LINPACK, below the stated 20-petaflop target. Tianhe-2 exceeded 20 petaflops on LINPACK in June 2013. The numerical forecast was late, not unscorable merely because brain equivalence is debated.","first_full_achievement_year":2013,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":4,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"Computers and communications in 2009: numerical hardware estimate","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O18","locator":"Jaguar Rmax 1.759 petaflops; Rpeak 2.331 petaflops. Rmax is measured LINPACK performance, not brain emulation.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O19","locator":"Sequoia Rpeak 20.13266 petaflops and Rmax 16.32475; Titan Rpeak 27.11255 and Rmax 17.59. Peak and measured values must not be mixed.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O20","locator":"Tianhe-2 recorded 33.86 petaflops Rmax. This establishes a public measured milestone, not a cognition milestone.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"This establishes numerical hardware capacity only. Neither 2012 nor 2013 is evidence of simulating a human mind.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"EXE-012","relation":"SPLIT_AND_HOLD_PRICE_VARIANT"},{"legacy_id":"EXE-017","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"}]}