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This is pending, not failed in 2026.","evidence_source_ids":["N10","N11"],"verdict":"PENDING","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"deadline_year":2029,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.","at_deadline":"NOT_DUE","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"The 2029 forecast has not matured.","at_review_rationale":"Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.","evidence_source_ids":["N10","N11"],"verdict":"PENDING","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"deadline_year":2029,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.","at_deadline":"NOT_DUE","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","rationale":"The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":null,"at_deadline_rationale":"The 2029 forecast has not matured.","at_review_rationale":"Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.","evidence_source_ids":["N10","N11"],"verdict":"PENDING","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"deadline_year":2029,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":null,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"UNESTABLISHED","label":"Deadline not yet reached","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"PENDING","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"NOT_DUE","at_review":"NOT_ASSESSED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"A future numerical hardware forecast with an unresolved brain-equivalence interpretation. Do not use model marketing or a single low-precision accelerator specification to declare it already fulfilled.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future, unresolved, intrinsically unscorable, or interpretation-dependent; see assessment."},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K035","slug":"k035-thousand-brain-computation-for-a-thousand-dollars","title":"Thousand-brain computation for a thousand dollars","prediction_paraphrase":"$1,000 buys approximately 1,000 brains of computation.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"Computing hardware","tags":["brain equivalence","operations per second"],"subcategory":"Price/performance","claim_type":"PERFORMANCE_COST","family_id":"F-BRAIN-COMPUTE","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":["EXE-012","EXE-022"],"origin":"LEGACY_RECONCILIATION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"ARTICLE_ATTRIBUTION","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"ATTRIBUTED_ARTICLE_YEAR_NOT_ORIGINAL_BOOK_COLLATION"},"target":{"text":"2029","deadline_year":2029,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2029,"year_end":2029,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"A $1,000-in-1999-dollars unit supplies approximately 2×10^19 calculations/second.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"The 2029 forecast has not matured.","at_review_rationale":"Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"PENDING","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"NOT_DUE","at_review":"NOT_FULFILLED","confidence":"HIGH","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":false,"rationale":"The 2029 forecast has not matured. Checked consumer hardware does not currently reach the stated arithmetic scale. This is pending, not failed in 2026.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"withheld_reason":"Future deadline; current progress nevertheless assessed."},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P02","locator":"Computers and communications in 2029: opening paragraph","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"N10","locator":"10,752 CUDA cores, 2.62 GHz boost; theoretical FP32 about 56.3 TFLOPS using 2 operations/core/cycle. AI TOPS use different precision and cannot establish brain equivalence.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N11","locator":"RTX 5080 launch MSRP $999, 1,801 AI TOPS. Launch prices are not represented as October 2026 retail quotes; a GPU also is not a whole PC.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Assessment is conditional on the stated criterion and population. Documented examples establish availability, not universal adoption. The original book edition has not been independently collated.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"EXE-012","relation":"SPLIT_AND_HOLD_PRICE_VARIANT"},{"legacy_id":"EXE-022","relation":"CANONICALIZE"}]}