20 PFLOPS supercomputer
Target: 2009
LATE · At deadline: NOT FULFILLED · By review: FULFILLED
Back to the scorecard
EXE-012/AI & software
“In 2009 it will take a supercomputer to match one human brain; in 2019 \$4,000 does the same; in 2029 \$1,000 buys 1000 brains”【63†L392-L399】
i
Original intake · research history. This lead is preserved as imported. It is not scored or redirected. SPLIT AND HOLD PRICE VARIANT
Separate 2009, 2019 and 2029 hardware forecasts. The article has $1,000 in 1999 dollars for 2019; the alleged $4,000 book version remains unverified.
Attribution unresolved — outcome conditional on this wording
Supercomputer brain budget in 2009, $4,000 in 2019, $1,000 buys 1,000 budgets in 2029.
Conditional verdict: PENDING
At original deadline: NOT DUE · By review: PARTLY FULFILLED
The 2009 budget arrives late on sustained throughput; the 2019 $4,000 budget remains unfulfilled on the numerical criterion; 2029 remains pending. The $4,000 import is not the sourced $1,000 2019 version.
$4,000 for 20 PFLOPS
Target: 2019
WRONG · At deadline: NOT FULFILLED · By review: NOT FULFILLED
$1,000 for 1,000 brains
Target: 2029
PENDING · At deadline: NOT DUE · By review: NOT FULFILLED
Excluded from aggregate author accuracy. Conditional wording and related canonical versions are never counted twice.
O18O20N09N10N11Reconciled records & related versions
A link can identify a related version, split claim, or unresolved attribution; it does not establish equivalence.
K033Supercomputers reach 20 quadrillion calculations per secondK034The 2019 thousand-dollar brain-compute estimateK035Thousand-brain computation for a thousand dollarsDisposition sources: P02
01
The original imported lead.
IMPORTED PARAPHRASE · NOT A VERIFIED QUOTATION
“In 2009 it will take a supercomputer to match one human brain; in 2019 \$4,000 does the same; in 2029 \$1,000 buys 1000 brains”【63†L392-L399】
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
1999 · Attribution / year unconfirmed
Page, edition, or timestamp not yet established
- Normalized claim
- Not established. The testable claim will be written after the original wording is checked.
- Success criteria
- Not established. Thresholds, adoption requirements, geography, cost, and required technology must be retained during review.
- Claim type
- Not classified
02
Timeline
PREDICTION MADE1999Unconfirmed source year
ORIGINAL TARGET2009–2029No exact deadline used in statistics
FULL REALIZATION—No achievement year established
Outcome at original deadlineUNREVIEWED
Outcome at reviewUNREVIEWED
Supplied target wording: 2009–2029. No confirmed date is used in calculations. Forecast horizon: not established. Drift is a calendar-year difference, not a precise elapsed duration.
03
The evidence.
No outcome evidence has been verified.
Legacy ratings are preserved in the source package. They have not been accepted as evidence for this assessment.
Capability, adoption, and timing
A related breakthrough is not automatically fulfillment. Review must check the actual capability, how widely it was required to be used, the specified technology, and the original deadline. A prototype cannot establish a claim about routine or widespread use.
04
Research notes & history
Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
Open questions
- Check the original wording, attribution, and publication date.
- Establish the deadline and full success criteria.
- Resolve repetitions and related forecast versions.
- Find independent evidence for the deadline and review outcomes.
- Imported from
- kurzweil_prediction_intake_v0_1.csv · CSV row 74
- Legacy identifier
- EXE-012
- Forecast family
- Not assigned
- Parent statement
- EXE-012
- File checksum
- dcf2f213917bfaccdcdd45a7b98b5db4243cda090687358879d5ed53838f3bb2
Inspect preserved source fields
- Record ID
- EXE-012
- Prediction — imported lead
- “In 2009 it will take a supercomputer to match one human brain; in 2019 \$4,000 does the same; in 2029 \$1,000 buys 1000 brains”【63†L392-L399】
- Primary category — draft
- AI & software
- Subcategory / secondary tags
- AI / Computing
- Claimed source — legacy
- *The Age of Spiritual Machines* (1999)
- Source year — unconfirmed
- 1999
- Target text — legacy
- 2009–2029
- Confirmed deadline year
- (blank)
- At-deadline outcome
- UNREVIEWED
- Outcome at review
- UNREVIEWED
- First full-achievement year
- (blank)
- Review year
- 2026
- Review state
- UNREVIEWED
- Canonical for statistics?
- NO
- Forecast family ID
- (blank)
- Parent statement ID
- EXE-012
- Prediction source URL
- (blank)
- Page / paragraph / timestamp
- (blank)
- Outcome evidence URLs
- (blank)
- Success criteria / scope
- (blank)
- Original wording checked?
- NO
- Adoption stage / claim type
- (blank)
- Date precision / target interval
- (blank)
- Review notes
- Imported research lead only. Verify attribution, deadline, scope and outcome; do not inherit the legacy score. Draft category needs review.
- Legacy import ID
- EXE-012
- Display status
- UNREVIEWED
- Drift — years
- (blank)
- Overdue — years
- (blank)
- Due and eligible
- 0
- On-time full hit
- 0
- Full realization hit
- 0
- Publication year confirmed
- (blank)
Review history
— Evidence v0.2: Separate 2009, 2019 and 2029 hardware forecasts. The article has $1,000 in 1999 dollars for 2019; the alleged $4,000 book version remains unverified.
— SPLIT_AND_HOLD_PRICE_VARIANT: Separate 2009, 2019 and 2029 hardware forecasts. The article has $1,000 in 1999 dollars for 2019; the alleged $4,000 book version remains unverified. Original record retained; no automatic redirect or score inherited.
Related forecasts.
No forecast family has been resolved for this record. Related statements and revised deadlines will be linked during research.