- release_record
- {"population_scope":"Technology markets and relevant users; no universality unless the forecast expressly requires it.","attribution_confidence":"MEDIUM","interpretation_confidence":"MEDIUM","outcome_confidence":{"at_deadline":"MEDIUM","at_review":"MEDIUM"},"timing_confidence":"MEDIUM","date_uncertainty_affects_verdict":false,"interpretations":{"reference":{"criterion":"Ordinary users have practical two-way spoken translation for many language pairs; no perfect all-language requirement.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service. Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"at_deadline_rationale":"Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service.","at_review_rationale":"Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.","evidence_source_ids":["O11","O12","N20"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"strict":{"criterion":"Speech-to-speech translation is integrated into live telephone calls for many ordinary language pairs, without requiring all languages or flawless human equivalence.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"The 2009 product evidence was narrower. Apple documents spoken in-call translation shipping in September 2025, and its current guide lists multiple common languages. This satisfies practical telephone integration; perfect translation was not required.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"LITERAL_TELEPHONE_INTEGRATION","documented_by_year":2025,"evidence_source_ids":["O11","O12","N71","N72"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true},"broader":{"criterion":"Ordinary users have practical two-way spoken translation for many language pairs; no perfect all-language requirement.","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","rationale":"Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service. Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.","relaxed_or_changed_conditions":[],"kind":"REFERENCE_READING","documented_by_year":2015,"at_deadline_rationale":"Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service.","at_review_rationale":"Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.","evidence_source_ids":["O11","O12","N20"],"verdict":"LATE","same_as_reference":true,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"deadline_year":2009,"outcome_assessment_complete":true}},"non_scoring_comparators":[{"criterion":"Perfect human-quality interpretation for arbitrary calls and all languages.","eligible_for_deadline_metrics":false,"eligible_for_author_accuracy":false,"warning":"Not demanded by the source; do not score this as a strict forecast."}],"timing":{"first_full_achievement_year":null,"documented_by_year":2015,"achievement_interval_years":null,"kind":"DOCUMENTED_BY","label":"Documented by 2015; after 2009, no later than 2015","drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null},"deduplication":{"is_canonical":true,"is_repeated_identical_claim":false,"counting_unit":"DISTINCT_FORECAST_VERSION","note":"Different deadlines or materially different thresholds remain separate versions; identical legacy repetitions are linked, not recounted."},"revision_history":[{"from_version":"0.2","previous_assessment":{"review_state":"ASSESSED","verdict":"PARTIAL","as_of":"2026-10-14","at_deadline":"PARTIAL","at_review":"FULL_FULFILLMENT_NOT_ESTABLISHED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":false,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"CMU documented an English–Spanish iPhone speech translator in 2009. Google expanded conversation mode to 14 languages in 2011. That is meaningful capability progress, but neither proves common many-pair use by 2009.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":null,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"change_reason":"Complete deadline/current outcome assessment under explicit scope; separate uncertainty from verdict."}],"is_new_in_v03":false,"counting_policy":{"unit":"distinct_forecast_version","identical_repetitions_count_once":true,"alternative_interpretations_count_once":true,"legacy_conditional_rows_count":false},"id":"K048","slug":"k048-common-many-language-speech-to-speech-translation","title":"Common many-language speech-to-speech translation","prediction_paraphrase":"Many-pair translating telephones are commonly used.","wording_kind":"EDITORIAL_PARAPHRASE","original_quote":null,"primary_category":"AI & software","tags":["speech-to-speech","adoption"],"subcategory":"Machine translation","claim_type":"ADOPTION","family_id":"F-SPEECH-TRANSLATION","parent_statement_id":null,"legacy_ids":[],"origin":"CONFIRMED_RELATED_VERSION","publication":{"forecast_year":1999,"year_basis":"AUTHOR_ARCHIVE_REPRINT","original_book_edition_checked":false,"forecast_year_status":"SUPPORTED_BY_LISTED_SOURCE"},"target":{"text":"2009","deadline_year":2009,"precision":"YEAR","year_start":2009,"year_end":2009,"interpretation":null},"source_verification":{"state":"TEXT_CONFIRMED_IN_LISTED_SOURCE","confidence":"MEDIUM","book_text_not_independently_collated":true},"success_criteria":"Ordinary users have practical two-way spoken translation for many language pairs; no perfect all-language requirement.","assessment":{"at_deadline_rationale":"Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service.","at_review_rationale":"Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.","verdict_qualifier":null,"outcome_evidence_basis":"DIRECT_AND_CONTEXTUAL_EVIDENCE_WITH_EXPLICIT_EDITORIAL_INTERPRETATION","attribution_is_separate":true,"first_event_date_required_for_verdict":false,"at_review_semantics":"FULL_REALIZATION_HAS_OCCURRED_BY_REVIEW_NOT_NECESSARILY_CURRENT_PRODUCT_SALES","review_state":"EDITORIAL_ASSESSMENT_COMPLETE","verdict":"LATE","as_of":"2026-10-15","at_deadline":"PARTLY_FULFILLED","at_review":"FULFILLED","confidence":"MEDIUM","disputed_interpretation":true,"benchmark_ready":true,"rationale":"Jibbigo provided a real but limited 2009 translating-phone capability. It was not yet a routine many-pair service. Google’s 2011 and 2015 conversation/speech products establish the broader consumer capability by 2015. Accents and mistakes do not negate ordinary practical use.","first_full_achievement_year":null,"full_achievement_documented_by_year":2015,"drift_years":null,"drift_range_years":null,"still_unfulfilled_as_of_review":false,"eligible_for_deadline_metrics":true,"withheld_reason":null},"prediction_sources":[{"source_id":"P01","locator":"Communication, prediction 1, printed p. 50","role":"FORECAST_ATTRIBUTION"}],"evidence":[{"source_id":"O11","locator":"Fall 2009 university account of English–Spanish speech translation on iPhone. Not evidence of common use across many language pairs.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"O12","locator":"Speech conversation mode expanded to 14 languages; still described as alpha. Not equivalent to translation quality or universal adoption.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N20","locator":"Conversation and speech translation documented in product updates. Text-language counts must not be presented as speech-language counts; 44-language wearable speech support is separately identified.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N71","locator":"Shipping real-time spoken translation in Phone for selected language pairs; five languages at initial launch. Not every language, country or device.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"},{"source_id":"N72","locator":"Current iOS 26 guide lists one-on-one spoken Phone translation across English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese and Korean variants. Supports actual telephone integration, not perfect translation quality.","role":"OUTCOME_EVIDENCE"}],"limitations":"Do not reuse text-translation language totals as speech totals. The 2015 documented-by year is not asserted as the first possible many-pair translation product.","open_questions":["Original-edition collation remains an attribution task; it does not erase the stated outcome assessment.","An earlier documented instance could refine timing; the documented-by date is not claimed to be the invention year."],"legacy_relations":[{"legacy_id":"AUD-027","relation":"QUARANTINE_COMPOUND_UNLOCATED"},{"legacy_id":"DEC-008","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"},{"legacy_id":"EXE-002","relation":"QUARANTINE_RELATED_VERSION_ONLY"},{"legacy_id":"EXE-004","relation":"QUARANTINE_AND_SPLIT_REQUIRED"}]}